HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY JUNE 20TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving over the East Atlantic West of Ireland with a slack North or NW flow over the UK.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today shows High pressure declining slowly next week and beyond but never really moving that far away from the South or the SW of Britain. Some Atlantic Low pressure areas are shown to flirt with the North of the UK with the chance of Atlantic fronts bringing occasional rain and thicker cloud there while the South will see the best of the warm sunny spells and variable cloud cover and just the risk of an odd shower at times.

UKMO UKMO shows very slack pressure gradients over the UK at the end of it's run for next Thursday with an upper air trough covering the UK. Though fine and dry weather may still be the outlook for the vast majority some showers would also be likely with some heavy and thundery ones possible.

GEM The GEM operational today is also showing a change to more of a slack pressure pattern next week as upper air troughs gradually introduce showers in among the sunny spells from early in the week as High pressure releases it's grip somewhat through the week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows pressure falling next week but never particularly so in the South. As a result any changes will be slow and more restricted towards the North of the UK where showers could be heavy in places while the South look likely to miss most of these due to a ridge close to the SW.

ECM The ECM operational today is backtracking on earlier signs of a pattern change next week. Instead it shows that High pressure though receding somewhat never departs far enough away from the South to incur the UK seeing a widespread change to more unsettled conditions. Yes some weak troughs do show some showers are possible next week, especially in the North while many Southern areas continue to see a lot of dry and bright weather with sunny spells and reasonably warm weather persisting. The ensembles later will be interesting in whether they endorse this better scenario or continue to show a gretaer threat of showers nationwide that was on offer yesterday evening.

MY THOUGHTS  While much of the output does show some releasing of grip of High pressure over the UK next week few show any major shift towards deep Low pressure and rain or showers on a nationwide scale. Much more likely is a halfway house type of outcome with slack pressure gradients bringing an increased risk of showers, especially across Northern regions next week while most areas continue to see a lot of dry and bright weather in between any showers. The South may see very little rain overall as High pressure shown on a lot of output continues to be a big feature down to the SW of Britain.

It has long been a suggestion from CFS that there would be a more unsettled interlude around the first week of July, followed by what has on many runs been the most stable, fine and very warm or even hot weather of the summer to date.

To have the EC-32 dayer picking up on it as well is encouraging 

In the nearer timeframe, next week's ridge is looking to have enough support from the trough south of the UK to hang on through much of the working week and perhaps into the weekend.

The quicker breakdown from ECM has been dropped in favour of something more like the GFS solutions of late out to day 8.

UKMO still looks faster, but has the trough by Portugal further east than all the other models at 96 hours, which gives cause to take that solution with a large pinch of salt.

Temperatures based on an ECM/GFS 00z op run combination look to be largely in the low to mid-20's across England and Wales, the higher temperatures favoured toward the SE on most days from Sunday onward. Rainfall looks to be more or less absent from much of the region.

That's a decent outlook indeed for late June 

Hey all,

Here's today's video update:

Difficult Summer Patterns At The Moment;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Patterns are causing me a few headaches, both in the shorter and longer term.

I cant understand the MetO updated 5-15 day MRF as it bears no relation to the model output including their own!

However, the 16-30 dayer does now pick up on a likely warm and sunny spell mid July.

Andy

The further west you go, the earlier the sun's been coming out. In Manc city centre, most days it's been sunny by lunchtime. In St Helens, by mid/late-morning

Personally, I'm loving this little spell of weather!

Sounds OK to me.

Today's been good most of the day just like Wednesday (but not as humid today) pretty much wall to wall sunshine now, just a couple of small fluffy clouds  hope the models continue with the dry theme.

The UKMO 12z is way out of kilter with the GFS and GEM runs, both 00z and 12z, even at just +96 hours... highly unusual.

The differences comes from a stronger jet stream and a lack of the higher heights to the N/NE that GFS and to a lesser extent GEM use to hold back the Atlantic.

Usually I would back the models showing this walling off effect over those that don't, but in this case with the anomaly being UKMO... I too am hoping that the ECM run is consistent with the GFS 12z run and its own 00z run.

As usual it's completely justified. Over 500 hours summer sunshine deficit racked up since 2007 and while you are enjoying 26C temperatures and sunshine this week, here we have had a week of stratocumulus filled gloom and drizzle with October levels of sunshine and the temperature has yet to hit 21C this month.

If anything it looks like getting even worse with sunshine reduced to November-like rations over the next week 

Now you know how I feel during spells of SW winds which ususally mean rain for my area, but your area normally fairs quite well when the wind blows out of that direction!

Back on topic: Looks likely that there'll be at least a brief interruption to the settled theme later this week, but whether there have been/are hints from some model runs that it might not be too long before HP returns. Here's hoping.

MetO is my favourite model but tonight its clearly off on one.

Surely GFS and ECM cant both be wrong?

I am not betting on the MetO this evening and my money is on a ECM solution by morning.

Thats blown it

Andy

This is proving to be an extended spell of lovely weather here but it occured to me earlier that thank God it isnt winter as we would be enduring our 3rd week of anticyclonic gloom, the synoptics for this are perfect if it was winter.

As it is the high is close enough to give most people warm, dry weather but if this was January the whole Country would be covered in low stratus cloud and temperatures between 8c and 10c day and night, the thought of such depressing conditions make me shudder

When December arrives I trust this Irish High will be twice the size and situated over Greenland

Andy

When high pressure shows signs of turning up to our NE, this sort of model chaos often ensues...

ECM shows us what might happen if we see a particularly weak jet next week; the ridge doesn't get as much support next week and the position is a bit touch and go, but then when the jet stream wakes up during the weekend, we're positioned well for escaping those Atlantic storms and seeing a better defined ridge build across instead.

GFS has toned down the jet a bit in the longer term, but not changed it much in the mid-range. That's had the effect of producing day 8-10 charts close to an average of ECM's last two efforts, but with the preceding period seeing high pressure placed more to our E/NE than ECM has it, resulting in a warmer setup, though only by a degree or two I reckon.

That UKMO run just seems to be hyper-progressive for some reason. With the charts pre-96 hours gone AWOL from all the sites I use, I can't really look into possible causes 

I seem to recall that in 2012, the tendency to overcook the jet often led to troughs across the UK at initialisation (i.e. the current situation at the start of the model run) being shunted away from us in the longer range of the model output, with a ridge building in behind, giving us cause for hope - only for the jet to then be toned down and the trough left lingering across us.

By complete contrast, the same toning down of the jet from longer range predictions seems to be resulting in the modelled breakdown of ridges and arrival of troughs being much reduced or negated altogether.

Of course, I'm only talking about three weeks of June 2014 in this case, and there's no reason to believe that the same behavoural traits will stick around for two more months...! Hoping is permitted, though 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JUNE 21ST 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving over the East Atlantic West of Ireland with a ridge extending East across England and Wales. Weak troughs will brush by the far North at times.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today shows High pressure remaining in charge of the weather for another week or so with the centre relaxing down towards the SW of the UK next week while maintaining a ridge towards Britain. Later next week and more likely next weekend and in week 2 Low pressure becomes much more in evidence close to the North of the UK with breezier ans more changeable weather developing especially in the North. While the South would see some rain dry spells would continue to feature at times in average temperatures by then.

UKMO UKMO shows Low pressure gradually moving in from the NW later next week with a West or WNW flow carrying occasional showery rain into most areas by the end of next week with temperatures declining somewhat.

GEM The GEM operational today is also showing a change to more changeable weather later next week with the SE affected first with some thunder showers before all areas become more at risk of rain later as Low pressure from the Atlantic moves towards the North with Westerly winds developing across the UK as a result.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today weakens pressure over the UK as the High slips away SW later next week. By next weekend the model shows unsettled weather with rain at times as a more marked depression is shown to move in over Britain off the Atlantic with stronger winds, rain and cooler temperatures for all.

ECM The ECM operational today shows High pressure weakening next week at the expense of weak Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic towards and over Northern Britain with the ingredients provided for some heavy showers to break out over the UK from midweek. Thereafter further showers in slack pressure gradients continue to be a risk but not all will see them with temperatures though cooler still respectable for late June.

MY THOUGHTS  The models continue to show pressure weakening across the UK next week which is agreed upon by all. The methods through which this is achieved is less agreed upon with the majority going for some weak Atlantic Low pressure making inroads into the UK while others keep pressure lower than recently though slack with just a scattering of showers in still sometimes pleasant conditions. My own thoughts are that overall there still looks like being some very reasonable summer weather to be found over Britain for another week or so before a tentative change to fine weather being punctuated by heavy showers or sporadic outbreaks of rain almost anywhere but perhaps more so over the North with temperatures falling back a tad. Nevertheless I can't see any cross model support for a breakdown to the extent of NAVGEM'S operational today so many areas look like ending up with June being a warmer and drier month than average.

What a strange summer pattern we're in at the moment.

Low pressure could well bring heavy showery rain by the weekend but not certain at this range.

Your telling me. I've got to try and make a week ahead forecast based on this mornings models!

I've already had someone telling me off for last weeks effort.

This week it's more of the same, plus the added attraction of low pressure trying to have a go at us Thu/Fri.

I don't envy you Gavin - a real tough week to forecast.

The GFS 0Z does suggest the threat of something tasty on Saturday evening from the south   

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062100/gfs-2-186.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062100/gfs-11-186.png?0

Way too early to call though!

Extensive northern blocking showing in mid-term at the moment

All changes for Wimbledon as expected...

Well I'm cutting most of the hay, dry for a week - I can feel it in my water 
Take that GFS/ECM/METO