HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY JUNE 18TH 2014.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving just to the West of Northern ireland with a NW flow over Scotland and a NNE flow over the South. Occasional weak troughs will spill South across the nation at times.
GFS The GFS Ensembles today shows High pressure anchored to the West of the UK for some time yet before pressure slowly falls and the High centre becomes more ill defined. With resulting slack pressure gradients cooler upper with time seep down across the UK from the North with a few showers possible. Then right at the end of the period there is an increased risk of Atlantic Low pressure finally making it through the High pressure block with breezier weather likely then with occasional rain but this is a long way out and by no means a definite.
UKMO UKMO closes this morning's run with High pressure still in control with the main centre to the SW with a strong ridge over the UK maintaining dry and bright conditions for many with some warm sunshine through variable cloud cover.
GEM The GEM operational today is having none of the deterioration in conditions that some of the other output shows with High pressure early next week if anything intensifying across the UK with further warm and dry conditions for most areas with sunny spells and light winds.
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure receding somewhat towards the Azores next week but maintaining a link across the UK with relatively fine weather for most bar the odd shower. Temperatures will be maintained close to or occasionally above average dependant on cloud cover and location day to day.
ECM The ECM operational today is the most definitive in showing pressure leaking away next week with an eventual Atlantic breakthrough sown to have occurred for all by later next week. Should it verify the fine and occasionally warm conditions will give way to rain and breezier weather from the Atlantic later. It will be beneficial to see where this operational fits within it's ensembles before we talk about a change or new trend to the course of likely events.
MY THOUGHTS The models continue to promote a lot of fine and dry weather across the UK over the next week or two. Wall to Wall sunshine remains unlikely with some days warmer and sunnier than others and the odd shower will remain a risk. It's as usual in the latter stages of this morning's output that signs of change are shown with the ECM operational in the forefront of a change to breezier and more Atlantic mobile type weather later next week though at the time of this report it's ensembles were not issued to back up this theory. There are other signs though within the GFS Ensembles that also back up this theory albeit slightly later still in the period. GEM and UKMO look likely to hold on to fine weather well into next week at least with a strong ridge remaining in control across the UK from the SW. So in summary the weather will remain quite useable for some considerable time yet and while it remains unlikely to become uncomfortably warm it will be pleasantly warm for many due to cloud amounts sometimes rather large across the UK restricting the power of the sun somewhat.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY