http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014062412/ECM1-216.GIF?24-0

Figured this would be the sliding low occuring to the west of the UK as I anticipated...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014062412/ECM1-240.GIF?24-0

...but it lifts NE instead as the upstream trough drives the jet NE.

I think it's not a bad position to be in when the longer range shows the Atlantic jet gaining enough strength to threaten an Atlantic train - the typical toning down of the jet strength could serve us well.

Who's betting this is the one time the toning down doesn't occur? 

Looking at the 260 hours time frame - or thereabouts - on the GFS model, all I can say is "Go home, Summer, you are drunk". http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=264&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Of course, it is all in low res range anyway and thus won't lose any sleep over it, even though it has been trending in the past few runs.

Yes. Been watching this trend with concern for the past few days. Just in time for "Le Tour's" Grand Depart. Typical!!  Lets hope it gets moderated and we can show off to a watching world this country's fabulous scenery in glorious sunshine, and not a rain drenched wind scoured landscape.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY JUNE 25TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. The ridge of High pressure across the UK will gradually decline as Low pressure troughs approach the UK from the SW tomorrow.

GFS The GFS operational today shows the Azores High at it's natural home where it is shown to remain for the fornight. Low pressure as a result is allowed to trundle down across the UK on occasion and allow showers or outbreaks of rain to feature across many areas through the period with temperatures suppressed to average levels in the gentle NW or West flow across the UK. The GFS Ensemble pack is broadly similar though there is a little more evidence of High pressure encroachment from the West at times though generally an average temperature and showery theme across the UK is maintained.

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure over the Baltic Sea early next week with a showery trough West from it towards Southern Britain with High pressure well down to the SW. Scotland and Northern Ireland would probably see a lot of dry weather though the South still see some slow moving downpours in the afternoons.

GEM The GEM operational today shows slack Low pressure over the South early next week with a ridge over the North. Through the week the ridge sinks South displacing the showery trough in the South with a drier spell for all before a deep Low to the North pushes the ridge away South to bring all areas into a cooler and windier spell with Westerly winds and rain at times to end the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows pressure slowly rising from the SW early next week following a showery start to the week with most parts becoming dry and bright with sunny spells by midweek.

ECM The ECM operational today shows a showery start to next week across the South as the weekend showery Low moves away East. A ridge of High pressure builds briefly across the UK with sunny spells and dry weather for several days. This isn't shown to last long with Low pressure to the North of the UK sliding SE down the North Sea bringing cool and blustery West or NW winds with rain followed by showers for most areas late next week and the weekend.

MY THOUGHTS  This morning's output is in agreement that the end of the prolonged mostly fine period we have enjoyed of late is coming to an end soon. In it's place all output shows Low pressure gently crossing England and Wales over the coming 4-5 days with heavy and thundery downpours likely in places. The output then seems reluctant to pull this pattern away East cleanly next week with some models offering further showery reinforcements to move in from the West. Other output does show a brief ridge move Southeast over the UK from the Azores High midweek before the Atlantic ratchets up to give a more mobile feed with some rain and breeze for all by next weekend. My own view from studying the extended charts available to me is still that the showery breakdown over the next couple of days and through the weekend will lessen next week as pressure builds from the SW. I feel that a NW/SE split in the weather will develop thereafter with the South and East seeing a lot of dry and bright weather with temperatures recovering somewhat while the North and West see a more mobile pattern with rain and wind at times in blustery SW winds.

We've been here so many times over the past few months. With a brief break in Wales coming up soon into July, I'm going to cross my fingers and hope that the models yet again start slowing down the Atlantic trough progression and hence dropping the trough further west.

In the meantime, there's this curious extra-slack low pressure system to deal with. The positioning keeps shifting a bit from run to run, which impacts on the surface temperatures and the position of the most unstable regions.

Friday has been shaping up in favour of some decent homegrown thunderstorms across a wide stretch of England and Wales. That could bring some high rainfall totals in a short time period on a local scale.

As an aside, I find that having a definite date to look at focuses one's mind on the forecast more than just looking at developments over the next several days.

My two kids have sports day on Tuesday and even though the broad synoptics might not change that much, the specifics of where the rain is forecast to be does change - and can mean the difference between it going ahead or not.

Well I'm glad I ignored the indecisive models and cut grass last Friday and Saturday, half baled for hay today and the rest should be OK tomorow.
Still very little rain expected here anyway through into next week.
I have two more fields to cut yet...  

The BBC week ahead on Sunday made it sound like I made an expensive mistake.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY JUNE 26TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of Low pressure will move up across SW England today followed by a showery area of Low pressure moving in across England and Wales tomorrow.

GFS The GFS operational today shows shallow Low pressure areas the main feature of the run particularly over the South. In just over a weeks time a more substantial area of Low pressure is shown to move slowly NE across the UK with little meaningful recovery of pressure later in the run. The GFS Ensemble pack pretty much endorse the sequence of events of the operational today keeping Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK throughout. This means a couple of weeks of more showery weather with some more persistent rain at times, perhaps most likely across the South though with some drier periods too in temperatures close to average.

UKMO UKMO today shows a quiet and bright start to next week as pressure builds over the Norwegian Sea before Low pressure slides SE close to western Britain by midweek. Scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday would probably give way to a band of rain extending NE across Southern and Western areas later in average temperatures.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a quiet start to next week as the showery weekend gives way to a quietr phase under a weak ridge of High pressure. By midweek a deepening area of Low pressure slides SE towards Britain with rain into the SW midweek extending to all other areas by the weekend with much increased Westerly winds.

NAVGEM NAVGEM has a very similar pattern too with Low pressure gradually sinking down over the UK by a weeks time replacing a quiet start to next week with light winds and well scattered showers.

ECM The ECM operational today follows a similar trend next week though the Low after the middle of next week is on a more Northerly track than the other output with all areas seeing breezy Westerly winds by late next week with rain at times and it could feel rather chillier than lately as a result.

MY THOUGHTS  It looks likely that the weather is slowly becoming rather more mobile over the period of the output today. Shallow Low pressure with heavy showers is becoming established at the moment and this looks like lasting 4-5 days though showers look like decreasing by early next week as something of a ridge builds from the West or SW. This improvement looks very temporary as more coherent Low pressure is shown by most output crossing the UK from the West with winder and faster changing weather events across the UK in a fresh Westerly breeze. Longer term it does loom like the Azores High may become trapped in residence at home there allowing a Westerly flow across the Atlantic with the UK remaining in a changeable Westerly regime with some rain at times and temperatures held at average values at best.

+1 to that.

We've had a cracking June in Wilts, a far better, more settled spell than I can recall for many a year (maybe last July?) but other than that my cricket index (games rained off) is a lot healthier than the last 5-6 years.

The pattern going forward is not exactly lining up a conveyer of Atlantic storms is it?

A spell of Atlantic driven weather is normal at our latitude any time of the year.

Yep! Normal Brit weather chaps actually better than I expected this side that is (West) I'd would like the models to chuck in a

thunderstorm/lightning show, or two

I understand what Cultman was coming from - even though we all know one cannot say "summer is over" at this stage, clearly a ridiculous statement.

BUT - late June/early July is often a pivotal time where the pattern of the rest of the summer CAN be set, and I always think it is looking ominous if we get a change from fairly long-term settled to unsettled at this time. 1988 was a classic example - indeed it was this very day that the rain moved in in June 1988 and what followed was a very cool wet July, and one of the most cyclonic in decades. August wasn't much better.

Time will tell if this change is the shape of things to come in the remainder of this summer or not! Model output may not be looking great, but as I said a few weeks ago, things could look very different and a lot more optimistic in a few days time.

Well the Met Office's 16-30 day update seems to think that after a brief unsettled spell, things will start to improve again during the second week of July, and they've said the same thing over the last two or three days.

The end of the GFS 12z run this evening isn't too bad, even if it is far-out FI.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY JUNE 27TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A showery depression will drift slowly East across Southern England over the next 24 hours or so.

GFS The GFS operational today shows a ridge of High pressure from the Azores High stretching across the UK early next week ahead of Low pressure migrating down from the NW later with outbreaks of rain on fresh Westerly breezes later. The Ensembles to support that general theme with a North/South split propably developing with time with the North likely to see further rain at times from atlantic troughs while the South benefits from higher pressure with little rain and some long dry and bright spells.

UKMO UKMO today ends it's run for next Thursday showing a classic setup of an Icelandic Low pressure and an Azores High with a fresh Westerly flow developing over the UK. Troughs in the flow would bring rain and drizzle to the North and West while the South continues the drier theme from earlier in the week with rather more cloud with time.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the Low much further South towards Scotland later next week and then on out into the North Sea. As a result the attendant rain, cool winds and showers would be much more widespread over the UK with rather cool conditions for many only easing slowly from the west by Day 10.

NAVGEM NAVGEM brings the Low further South too ending it's run next Saturday with the Low over SW England having migrated down from the North in the days before. This would mean plenty of rain for all, heavy at times and temperatures disappointing for early July.

ECM The ECM operational today shows agreement on Low pressure drifting slowly SE from Iceland to Scotland late next week where it becomes slow moving with blustery winds and showers or rain at times for most in the final days of next week and the weekend especially but not exclusively in the North.

MY THOUGHTS  There is generally good agreement on the trend of events over the output range this morning though subtle differences in the positioning of next weeks Low pressure sinking SE from Iceland will have strong effects on the weather obtained in any one place as a result. The first few days of next week should be relatively set fair everywhere as a ridge of High pressure slips SE over the UK. It's later in the week when differences develop with some output holding Low pressure far enough North to keep the worst of the wind and rain to the North while other output bring it wholeheartedly down across the UK with widespread rain and showers as a result in cool air. The one constant today is that no heatwave looks likely over the next two weeks though I don't feel that too much pessimism should be applied either as I feel that the Azores High could ridge up towards at least Southern Britain at times offering some reasonable weather at least on occasion.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Torrential Storms And July Look-Ahead

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Cover's a lot of ground.

July's looking "mixed" at the moment, but I think we should get some decent weather - No sign of a July 2013 at the moment though.