I think his post reflects conditions next week more than this Friday (which is decent for the SE corner, but pretty average elsewhere)

Monday

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/144_mslp500.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rgem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_144_mslp850.png

Dire.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Then he should get his facts right, rather than attempting but failing to spread his own misery as far as possible

Why not post this chart, from a respected model?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1441.gif

Looking good for next week according to the Japs

Whether Idle

Good looking output from the ECM tonight after the weekends cooler and damper blip. Taking the mean of all output the trends for a substantial pressure rise from the Azores is there is still to be seen.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

1020mb isobar well established again across much of England, Wales and Ireland as soon as Tuesday. 

Away from the NE of Scotland the weather really hasn't been bad at all for many these last few weeks. I note with interest how yet again pessimism is out swamping the more optimistic types on here. Before posting a mediocre chart I would suggest thinking back to those woeful 2007-2012 summers where the atlantic train was seemingly relentless. 

Off back into the garden to sip my mint tea..another beautiful sunny evening 

Cherry pick all you want but the signs are for an unsettled start for next week. Most of the models agree and the extended Met Office outlook reflects this. Also posting a chart for that represents a snapshot of Monday and referring to it as 'next week' is a little hypocritical?

Especially when JMA serves up this afterwards...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif

Best hope the models agree on a settling down after midweek. The Met Office still forecast this, although not necessarily nationwide. 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Indeed Steve

gfs opp was anyway on the cool side s/e mid term

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140701/06/prmslEssex.png

sea level pressure gfs opp all at sea many members dont agree with it at all cant handle that block to the east and the storm is handled very much different to ecm

Can't say as I can see anything dire in the charts. Warmer and drier the further south you are, cooler and more unsettled for the North but by no means terrible anywhere really. I guess not great if you're in the far North or Scotland but even here it doesn't look dire, just cooler and more unsettled. 

No heatwave anywhere but warmer drier days followed by cooler showery days. Given LP is mostly shown to be North of the UK I'd go with a bit of a North/South split at times with considerably fewer showers making it down South.

With the Azores HP never too far away it really wouldn't take much to wander in to a countrywide warm/hot spell, although as that's not shown by the models clearly it's not a particularly strong possibility atm

Much better from ECM, you're right. Bringing the Azores high back in earlier than before. Hopefully the other models will agree with this positive step. Met Office extended outlook still looks promising after a short-lived unsettled blip.

(But if a chart looks dire it's well within a posters' rights to say it does, regardless of what happened in past summers!)

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

It now appears that the low pressure system to the north of the UK this weekend will feature multiple competing centres rather than one strong storm.

This has the benefit of bringing relatively light winds for many of us, compared to what could have occured. That means it should feel alright in sunny breaks.

The main headline looks to be sunshine and showers, but with these largely following a spell of frontal rain progressing southeast sometime Saturday. The location of this front during the afternoon will have a big impact on temperatures - could be stuck in the mid-teens underneath it, while those around may see high teens or low 20's maximums.

Early next week, the system falls apart... and typically, the models can't agree on where all the bits of residual energy go.

Most runs do show a weak low managing to drift close to Norway and linger there, which proves a pain as it interferes with high pressure attempting to build to our NE - with the Atlantic setup evolving as is generally shown, a block to the NE would most likely entice the Azores High to link up with it, this being what ECM hints at tonight (it doesn't really get going properly though).

Despite the wanderings of GFS in particular, with a broad cyclonic circulation setting up over Greenland days 5-10, I can still see how the most prolonged settled spell of the summer could be up for grabs at some point this month.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY JULY 2ND 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will gradually move South towards northern France while a strong SW flow ahead of a trough reaches NW Britain through the day.

HEADLINE  Rain at showers at the weekend and start to next week then becoming drier especially in the South and SW.

GFS The GFS operational today maintains the theme of a breakdown in conditions for all at the weekend as Low pressure feeds down from the NW. This then lifts slowly away North early next week as pressure builds once more from the SW with some fine and pleasant conditions for all before the trend back towards a slacker pressure feed over the UK retuens a risk of some showers late in the run. The GFS Ensembles still show a build of pressure next week behind the weekend's rain but High pressure is kept more towards the SW with Southern and Western parts benefitting from this the most on occasion with cooler weather with some outbreaks of rain most likely towards the North and NE of the UK extending to other areas too at times.

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure to the North of the UK at the end of the weekend and well into next week positioned close to northern Scotland with a blustery West or NW flow with rain and showers at times and much cooler conditions than currently.

GEM The GEM operational today is better than yesterday morning's run with Low pressure lifting away from the UK by midweek last to leave the East Coast where some showers may last into Thursday. The ridge from the Azores High then commands proceedings at the end of the week though it declines over the weekend as a broad upper trough slips South down Western sea areas to deliver the risk of showers to the South and West at the end of the run with the best conditions then transferring towards the East.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure early next week giving way to better conditions with time in association with a large Azores High. However, winds will remain West or NW and the North and West remain at risk of cloudier and drizzly conditions spilling in from the Atlantic at times.

ECM The ECM operational today maintains the general theme that Low pressure affecting all parts of the UK early next week loosens it's grip by midweek as pressure builds from the SW. The axis of the ridge is still a little too far South to give the very best weather but a North/South split later next week looks the most likely outcome with the South benefitting from bright and warm conditions but with large amounts of cloud at times while the North continue to run the risk of Atlantic troughs bringing rain across on occasion in the stronger Westerly feed there.

MY THOUGHTS  The pendulum on the model outputs this morning's output has swung back slightly towards set fair conditions to predominate for many after the generally unsettled period Saturday to Wednesday of the coming week. The GFS Ensembles are a little worrying but those aside and the fact that wall to wall sunshine and blistering temperatures are not shown from any output there is sufficient clarity from the majority of model runs that the weather later next week and beyond will become pleasant for many with broken cloud and light winds and more particularly in the South warm at times with sunny spells closest to a strong Azores ridge and never more than just the chance of a local afternoon shower. This pattern mirrors quite well the pattern that has evolved quite frequently this summer so far and as a result I think few complaints are likely if this morning's charts verify. There is the prospect of a Westerly feed delivering more cloud and occasional rain at times in the far North but even here some drier periods in between will occur with temperatures never particularly cool. So all in all a welcome step back towards more pleasant conditions after the weekend rain than shown yesterday morning with no exceptional weather likely anywhere over the subsequent 10 days or so.

Thanks Martin as always an excellent summary...as i`m coming down your way next week for my holiday i`m hoping the SW will fair quite well being near the Azores ridge ....?

GFS now pulls a trough up from the Mediterranean in order to combine with the small feature sliding SE from the Atlantic and fight the ridge from the west. The Med. trough often gets overcooked, so perhaps the fight from the LP is a little overdone. Just maybe.

ECM doesn't have that feature at all, and develops a much flatter pattern than GFS - not what is typically seen from the model, it has to be said. The southern half of the UK fares well out of it from Wednesday onwards, at least in terms of staying dry - cloud amounts are uncertain.

UKMO still seems to want to send something SE from the main trough and that results in far less pleasant picture for Tuesday. From what I can tell, the trough would either lift slowly out to the N/NE or slide down right over the UK. Good thing the position of the Iceland LP days 5-6 has no other model support!

GEM looks like it has taken ECM and added in a secondary LP sliding SE. That feature then goes on to support a Scandi block.

I do suspect ECM might be a bit too flat this morning, and I can see the split of energy, with a little running SE into the continent, as a very realistic outcome. I'm not sure what to make of UKMO - the distribution of energy in the trough is different to the other models even on day 4, particularly in terms of how far north the trough nearer Iceland is, so I'm tempted to throw it aside on this rare occasion 

Absolutely correct. The problem I think is the choice of terminology. 'Dire' for instance may not mean, or be,  the same for everyone.

Having said that, I think you're going to enjoy this thread as winter approaches

Last time I looked at the models which was earlier on today, I really hope that was GFS having a bit of a strop because the output for next Wednesday does look seriously crap over the South East. Rain coming in from the north east with fresh NE winds causing temperatures struggling to get up to 13 C at noon time.
  I'm going to have an afternoon 40 winks and when I wake up later, what I got to see in that run was all a bad dream.

*Wakes up*.

Phew, it was a bad dream after all. I must stop putting extra cheese on my usual Wednesday afternoon pizza.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif GEM@ 168

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif ECM @ 168

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014070212/gfs-0-192.png?12?12 GFS @ 192

Great to see the Azores High muscling into things from the SW. 

As some had forecasted, the weekend and Monday look increasingly like a another feeble blip of cool wet and unsettled weather in a generally benign and settled regime which has now dominated in one form or another since around March 7th.  Albeit the futher South one is in the UK, the closer one appears to be to the High.

After the winter from hell, we all deserve some settled summer weather and 2014 is delivering!

WI

Edit 12z GFS London ens suite SLP and Temps:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

Notable sharp rise in pressure remains obvious, as is a recovery in temperatures...

I was under the impression that the models had 'partially' flipped back his morning and from mid week on next week things were supposedly going to improve in the South at least... ?

Originally Posted by: bledur 

it is going to be fine next week apart from a few showersespecially the further south and east you are  end of july different story, rain, thunderstorms and generally more unsettled. 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

"end of july a different story" - that's in la la land i.e. who knows what the weather will be like then....

Someone on Netweather reckons that the BBC have just announced that at 9.58pm every Wednesday the MetO weather presenter will issue a 10 day forecast!

Anyone else heard that?

Should be interesting if true!

Andy

I've heard about this on my twitter feed. Think it's on News Channel.

Yep, just watched it, the 7-10 outlook was a little vague as you would expect but still useful.

Essentially tied in with tonights models, cool and showery north westerly flow, warmer in SE later as AH extends towards UK.

Look forward to the 10 day forecast on 1st December talking about a massive Greenland High and UK on the verge of record cold spell

Andy