HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY JULY 3RD 2014.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure across the English Channel will slip further South with pressure falling over the UK in association with an active trough approaching NW Britain later.
HEADLINE Slightly changeable weather especially in the North and East with driest and warmest weather towards the SW.
GFS The GFS operational today shows Low pressure to the North and NE weakening early next week with early showers becoming more restricted to Eastern areas by midweek or soon afterwards as a slack NNW flow slowly gives way to a ridge of High pressure slipping down from the NW. Thereafter a ridge will never be far from South and SW Britain with bright and dry conditions here and just patchy rain at times in the North and NE. The Ensembles are broadly similar with a large High to the West and SW restricting the most showery interventions towards the East and NE while West and SW remains best with regard to sunny spells and warmth.
UKMO UKMO closes it's morning run today showing a slack WNW flow over the UK with variable cloud and the risk of the odd shower more likely towards the North and NE in temperatures close to average or a fraction above in the sunnier SW.
GEM The GEM operational today is showing West or NW winds dominant over the UK next week and into the weekend. Pressure remains relatively high towards the SW with the best conditions here while Northern and some Eastern parts see some intermittent showers and these could extend elsewhere at times.
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a slack North or NW flow around High pressure to the SW. In a shallow slack flow embedded showery troughs could sink South down Eastern Britain in particular in temperatures under a Northerly flow somewhat suppressed but not overly cool.
ECM The ECM operational this morning is not good for next week as the week looks changeable and cooler than of late with several interventions of Low pressure slipping down from the NW across the UK with some rain and showers for all. It's not until late in the run that a slow recovery in conditions under the Azores High gradually edges NE into Britain though even at Day 10 such an improvement proves tentative.
MY THOUGHTS Taking the output this morning as a whole it appears that there is a high probability that the weather will become quite benign across the UK in association with High pressure anchored to the SW of the UK. All models show this as a permanent feature through the period with differing versions on the extent that this High has over the weather in the UK still proving hard to pin down. This morning most output hold it just too far away to guarantee dry weather with the door always ajar to allow some troughs to swing down Northern and Eastern parts in particular enhancing the risk of rain. Temperatures though reasonable look suppressed by the source of the flow being from the North Atlantic and cloud amounts as a result could be rather large at times. The ECM operational today is rather more concerning as it shows a lengthier and more extensive unsettled period for many lasting much of next week but the Ensembles will be more telling from 09:30 on whether this has support from it's group. So all in all a benign period of rather cloudy West or NW winds looks the favoured option this morning with a little rain or showers at times especially but not exclusively across the North and East while the SW should have the best chance of staying dry and bright with average temperatures or a shade above. The UK should stay largely clear of any wide scale chances of severe weather from any weather parameter over the next 10-14 days.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter