not looking quite so good now for next week  as the azores high is reluctant to move east and we get more influenced by a trough.

The twists and turns this week in relation to next week have been quite incredible!

It's a good job it mid summer and nobody's watching and not mid winter, LOL!

ECM is rather uninspiring next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014070412/ECM0-144.GIF?04-0

On the other hand the JMA going for the Azores high ridging in from the west.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070412/J120-21.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070412/J132-7.GIF?04-12

But it doesn't last as we have a trough that moves down from the NW and it turns unsettled once again.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070412/J180-21.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070412/J192-21.GIF?04-12

Typical - the UK & Ireland are the coolest places in Summer!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070412/J192-7.GIF?04-12

I wish things would settle down a bit more - at this time of year things ought to be more clearer than this.

Models seem all at sea even from run to run as Gavin said I know it sounds a bit strange I wonder at the end of the day we just end up with more of the same which has been good for the bulk of the uk after this weekend blip with the Azores keeps nudging in.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=0

It's not uncommon for weak ridges and troughs to battle it out for a time in July, giving often rather vague output that can be hard to draw much from.

The ECM 12z run has numerous lows in the order of 1010mb hanging around the UK. These weak features would mostly act to bring afternoon/evening showers, with little ability to drive frontal systems.

It seems to arise from a 'residual' jet flow heading SE from the Atlantic and through the UK, this slowly dissipating with time. As the main jet heads NE, the Atlantic train should in theory end up heading entirely NE in the end... which is what GFS shows at the longer range.

Hints of that do also exist on the ECM run.

UKMO doesn't go far enough to give much of a signal, but the day 6 chart does show the residual jet problem.

That JMA run finds lower 850hPa temps and heights to our NW than the other models, and this due to errors in the modelling of the temperatures across Greenland;

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070412/J144-7.GIF?04-12

Minus 8 shown there...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014070412/ECM0-144.GIF

Nothing below the tiniest patch of minus 4 there.

It's something I've seen consistently present in the model, and when a trough develops to our NW, this tends to lead to the trough being overdone (thermal gradient too large = jet too strong = trough develops too much).

So to summarise, next week looks like seeing one or two weak areas of low pressure attempting to get in the way of the ridge from the Azores. After this, the ridge has a good chance of taking over, and seeing as my break in Wales finishes a week today, that ridge is almost guaranteed to stick around and produce the longest reliably fine spell of the summer 

longer term good to very good from gfs if thats true

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

Not much time to comment this morning as I'm rushing off to Wales, but one thing that strikes me is the slow increase in the strength and influence of high pressure to the NE of the UK in the mid-term.

With the Atlantic troughs looking to become quite weak features as the jet winds down, we could see a return of the regime where troughs tend to drop down to our west - warm, maybe even hot on some days, but also tending to become unstable.

This time, though, some signs are there for the Azores to have much more of a say in things, which may result in an elongated Azores-Scandi ridge of sorts, this most likely evolving into more of a UK high if that route is followed.

In Scotland (Monadh Liath and possibly Atholl areas) from 19-23 July.

Can I bank this morning's GFS 00z run please?  

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JULY 5TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A front will clear Eastern Britain this morning followed by a showery SW flow across the UK with Low pressure close to the NW.

HEADLINE  Rather cooler and more changeable with sunshine and showers, most frequent in the East later next week.

GFS The GFS operational today shows the general theme of High pressure to the SW extending a ridge of High pressure towards the UK for much of the time with it's extent growing further towards High pressure close to NW Britain late in the run. As a result a lot of dry and benign conditions are still likely with a gentle North wind at times. The ensembles show something broadly similar but with more of a chance of showers in places at times in association with shallow and showery Low pressure which is shown to be quite persistent over Europe.

UKMO UKMO this morning is showing Low pressure from Europe towards the middle of next week edging closer to SE Britain with cloud and cool weather and some showers there and probably in other Eastern parts while most other areas are shown more likely to stay dry with some sunshine and just the risk of a shower in comfortable temperatures.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the same Low pressure over Europe joining forces with another area to the NW to form a complex if shallow Low pressure across the UK next weekend and beyond with showers around and temperatures suppressed towards normal values.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a Low to the SE taking a swipe at Eastern Britain later next week with a cool and showery feed around it affecting eastern areas in particular. By the end of the run isobars open out and a quiet and bright spell of weather ends the run with slow moving showers here and there.

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows Low pressure later next week close to SE England with showers for many. Over subsequent days Low pressure to the NW adjoings the general changeable theme with some rain or showers at times with the trend to push the risk from these more towards the North late in the run.

MY THOUGHTS  The main theme this morning is the extension of the risk hinted at yesterday from Low pressure towards Germany to move in closer to SE England by Thursday. This would mean a cool northerly flow over these areas later next week with some rain or showers. Western areas are shown to be drier, brighter and warmer as a ridge is still shown trying to displace the Low pressure away East though not with universal success between the models. In fact some output suggests further Low pressure moving down from the NW to form a complex feature across the UK with rain and showers scattered about should it verify. My own thoughts are that a period of quiet and uneventful conditions look likely for many with the SW fairing the best over the period with less likelihood of showers here while elsewhere showers are a much greater risk gradually transferring from Eastern parts later next week to more Northern parts thereafter. With a general flow coming down from the North or NW through the period high temperatures are unlikely with the risk of a spell of something rather cool in the East for a time later next week though temperatures could lift rather higher as winds back more westerly later. It would be amiss of me not to mention the GFS model which extends High pressure towards the NW of the UK later which if verified would bring some warmer and dry conditions with time though I am not totally convinced with this option at this stage as I feel that lower pressure over Europe will allow nothing more than a ridge at best towards the UK. Still having said all this the weather will certainly not be a washout just not the wall to wall sunshine and warmth that we would prefer in mid July.

If the likes of that came of and verified - then things would be very good.

July 13th 14th is around the time the summer pattern is set up, and that being for the following 5 to 6 weeks.

Oh dear, are we approaching St.Swithen's Day? Or should it be renamed Groundhog Day?

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2014/07/05/basis00/euro/pslv/14071200_0500.gif      

Ecmwf Operational really trying to link these two areas of low pressure

Without meaning to state the obvious - It does seem that after having what in effect was quite a good June - we can't tell what the rest of the summer will be like.

Well lets see at around the 13th to 14th etc.

Its an old wives tale St Swithins day - but there is a lot of science behind it like most of these terms.

In the case of St Swithins Day is basically amounts to the establishment of the summer weather pattern and there is a lot to commend it by.

So lets give things another week or so.

The trough dropping to the west has appeared on the ECM run tonight - interesting...

I reckon based on past experience that GFS and GEM have too much westerly momentum, with the block to the NE likely to put up more of a fight as per the ECM run.

Not a given though - that's the chaotic nature of the weather for you!

p.s. it's been alright in Wales today, warm sunshine to be had at times 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY JULY 6TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack trough of Low pressure remains slow moving down across the UK in association with Low pressure close to the NW.

HEADLINE  Bright with scattered showers at times.

GFS The GFS operational today shows little overall change in the current pattern of High pressure near the Azores extending shallow ridges NE towards Britain at times interrupted by equally shallow showery Low pressure troughs feeding down across the UK at times in the generally NW flow. A general mix of sunshine and scattered showers day to day looks most likely with the heaviness and extent of showers differing from day to day. The Ensembles more or less support this view too with the chance of more prolonged rain at times in the North later.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a belt of shallow Low pressure stretching from a point SW of Iceland through Britain to SE Europe next weekend with light winds and slow moving but well scattered heavy showers most likely in average temperatures.

GEM The GEM operational today is largely similar in nature to the above with the added clause that pressure recovers somewhat across the South after next weekend with Westerly winds and occasional rainfall becoming more restricted to northern Britain then.

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps the UK under slack pressure gradients at the end of it's run this morning indicative of a lot of dry and bright weather but always with the chance of a heavy shower in average temperatures.

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows slack Low pressure out to the NW next weekend with a somewhat showery feed of light WSW winds across the UK. With time pressure builds over France and warmer air is sucked up across England and Wales from the SW and away from scattered showers still across the North and West many Southern and Eastern parts would become largely dry.

MY THOUGHTS  The models continue to jostle about with complex shallow summer synoptics on this morning outputs. The general theme though is shared between all models with just small scale differences making surface events different model to model day to day. The general theme is still one of High pressure down to the SW throwing a ridge towards the UK. However Low pressure both up towards the NW and also over Europe puts this ridge under pressure at times as shallow troughs slip South over the UK over or around it. The net result will be the next few weeks ending up with a lot of dry and benign weather with sunshine at times in average temperatures. However, having said that scattered showers will also occur in places, differing in location and extent day to day as troughs ebb and flow through the period. Some output is inclining towards pressure building somewhat across France later and if this occurs then the South could become warmer and mostly dry with some more prolific amounts of warm sunshine and few if any showers. There is however, no strong trend away from this current pattern that can be noted with any confidence this morning. All in all though no troubling or indeed record threatening weather events look likely anywhere across the UK within any parameters this morning.

I had a dream last night that was the headline in Monday's Daily Express.

I also dreamt that I watched webcam footage of the Henley Regatta instead of the British Grand Prix and the love child of Rolf Harris and Gary Glitter became Prime Minister

Great analysis as usual Martin

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

At the end of the high resoulution 06z GFS, another very decent run for the bulk of England, with 850s over 10c in south and precipitation mostly confined to the NW fringes; Azores High featuring again.

WI

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JULY 7TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A showery Westerly flow in association from Low pressure to the NW persists across the UK.

HEADLINE  A mix of dry weather with showery spells in between.

GFS The GFS operational today indicates a lot of showery type weather from shallow Low pressure areas ambling around over the UK through the end of next week and the beginning of next. Later in the period the run indicates a build of pressure from the SW with some warm settled conditions indicated for many by the end of next week and the weekend. The Ensembles shows a similar theme up to the end of the run which is more reluctant to build pressure so meaningfully as the operational at the end of the run.

UKMO UKMO this morning ends it's run with a complex pressure pattern based upon a shallow Low pressure belt stretching from Eastern Europe across the North of Britain and across the North Atlantic. The basic pattern will be one of sunshine and showers with the most showers gradually becoming more focused towards the North of the UK.

GEM The GEM operational today shows more influence of the High to the SW across the UK restricting showers considerably for most with a substantial build of pressure next week developing a High pressure system near Southern Britain with fine, very warm and settled conditions developing for most.

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps the UK under the influence of a weak ridge from the Azores High with upper air disturbances toppling through the ridge at times enhancing the risk of otherwise well scattered showers with plenty of sunshine and light winds.

ECM The ECM operational continues to struggle putting a handle on the current complex and slack pressure setup across much of NW Europe. Following last night's injest of heat this morning's output has swung the pendulum back towards rather unsettled and showery weather with cooler conditions as a result lasting through well into next week with little of the meaningful pressure rise from the South next week. A glance at the ensembles issued at 09:30 might give more info of the models overall idea.

MY THOUGHTS  This morning's output has provided another mixed batch of outcomes resulting from very similar broadscale sysnoptics of High pressure near the Azores and slack lower pressure over NW Europe and the North Atlantic. There is still a lot of uncertainties with regards to the extent that how much either the ridge or low pressure affects the weather over the UK. As a result day to day details remain hard to pin down and are pointless to speculate. So we must cater for that in the overall prediction of the weather over the next 10-14 days being a general mix of a lot of dry weather interrupted at times with scattered showers. With winds nearly always lightly blowing from between West and North it will never be exceptionally warm though in the strong July sunshine it will be very pleasant at times. If I tried to predict a long term trend from what I have seen today it would be for a slow build of pressure from the South later next week with the chance of dry and warm weather gradually extending North across at least the South of the UK though there is plenty of charts to perhaps thwart this trend ala this morning's ECM operational.

ECM at it again , lifts hopes last run now back to its normal wind up , god i hate this model with a passion , and why is it UKMO are always pessimistic in their outlooks to prefer unsettled ,FFS its July ....dont get me wrong its been a great summer so far , but certain models need to clear their cache i feel

Its only computer models Vince.

You need to chill big time.

I feel the same way Vince. I know what you mean.