HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY JULY 10TH 2014.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack Northerly flow lies across the UK today with a trough over Eastern Britain slow moving and one in the far West moving slowly East as it weakens.
MODELS 2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with scattered showers at times. Remaing quite warm.
GFS The GFS operational today shows Low pressure to the North relaxing it's grip from many Southern areas next week with this weekend's thundery showers gradually giving way to warm and sunny weather for a time across the South next week before a Low pressure slips NE late next week with a thundery breakdown again. A fresher Westerly flow is then shiwn for the remainder of the run with rain at times in the North and a lot of dry weather in the South. The Ensembles are supportive of this theme but with a more pronounced wet and windy spell at the start of week 2 before a large High develops over the UK late in the run with attendant dry and warm weather for all should it evolve.
UKMO UKMO this morning closes it's run with a light and warm SW flow between Low pressure near Iceland and High to the SE. Many parts would become dry under this pattern with some sunny spells and it could become very warm in the South and East while the North and West continue to lie under the risk of scattered showers at times.
GEM The GEM operational today also supports the theme of pressure rising from the SW next week with the weekend showers giving way to warm and sunny conditions as the ridge crosses the UK. Towards the end of next week it moves away NE with a thundery Low moving up from the SW bringing the risk of more pronounced showers and heavy rain for a time in humid air before the end of the run supports a return to Atlantic West winds with well scattered showers again to end the period.
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pressure building steadily from the SW next week with fine and very warm and sometimes humid air wafting across the South in particular after a showery start to the week. The North and West could continue to be more prone to cloudier spells with a few showers at times but a lot of dry and bright weather here too.
ECM The ECM operational this morning also shows a rise of pressure across the South through the middle of next week but with more muted and temporary effect. As a result the dry and fine weather over the South midweek when it could well stay warm and humid will break down into rain or thundery showers at times later as low pressure feeds back in from the SW and West.
MY THOUGHTS All in all despite the complex pattern of synoptics of late and again over the next few weeks the weather overall is not bad for many across the UK as a result and I see no reason why this overall pleasant Summer weather shouldn't continue. In fact through this morning's output is a well supported theme for the South and East of Britain in particular having a good chance of becoming very warm and sunny at least for a time next week as presure builds from the SW. Most models also suggest this to be temporary as a thundery breakdown looks possible later in the period introducing a return to slightly fresher Atlantic winds and showers again towards the end of the period. However having documented all these features all parts should end up with a lot of very pleasant and useable weather for outdoor events and activities over the period covered by the output this morning and despite the risk of local and very occasional heavy rainfall the vast majority of the time will stay largely decent especially across the South and East.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset