The internet is at a snail's pace here in the heart of rural Wales (Beacons) but I'm determined to make a post regarding the potential pume next week;

 

There are signs of a trend towards a sharper mid-Atlantic trough (jet dives more S than SE and then turns sharply back NNE) and a more notable ridge of high pressure building NNE through the UK and forming some kind of block to the NE.

If that trend continues tomorrow, ECM and GEM may produce some exciting hot and thundery charts to admire. As for GFS, it depends on whether it plays catch up... or turns out to have been leading the way despite having adjusted quite a bit towards ECM today.

 

Yeah - I have been keeping an eye on the output when and where I can, usually in cafés with internet access, because old habits die hard 

On a side note - today was fantastic in Wales with abundant sunshine and light winds... except on some of the highest peaks in the Beacons where I took a hike today! I managed to get myself a bit sunburnt all the same 

I'll be back in the world of fast internet access later on Saturday. Hopefully the charts will be good fun at that time 

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And lets hope an improvement verifies big time after having the worst summers day since the horrors of 2012.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY JULY 11TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slow moving trough over Eastern England will dissipate later while another trough will approach the far West of Britain tonight.

MODELS 2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright weather with some rain or showers at times. Remaing quite warm.

GFS The GFS operational today shows pressure building slowly from the South next week with a warm South or SW flow making things rather humid in the South and East. The North and West are more likely to see occasional bursts of rain from troughs crossing over west to East in the flow. By next weekend a thundery breakdown is shown as a complex Low moves NE over the UK before a return to Atlantic westerlies bring fresher and cooler conditions with sunshine and showers to end the run. The GFS Ensembles are generally quite supportive of this pattern of events today.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a slack SW flow in very warm and muggy air after midweek with a lot of dry and fine weather away from the Northwest where occasional rain is possible and an isolated heavy shower elsewhere.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a warm and humid week with a thundery breakdown shown next weekend setting up Low pressure close to Western Britain to end the run with fresh Southerly winds and rain at times for all as temperatures return to average.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a thundery trough swinging North over the UK later next week with Low pressure to the West thereafter with showers at times in relatively warm and humid conditions for many.

ECM The ECM operational today shows very warm conditions next week across the South and East before a thundery Low moves NE across the UK with a parent Low becoming a large and dominating feature down to the SW or West of Britain at the end of the run with fresher Southerly winds and rain at times to end the run.

MY THOUGHTS  The models have firmed up on the course of events next week with many Southern and Eastern parts benefitting from higher pressure and a warm or very warm and humid period with South or SW winds and sunny spells. The North and West may see occasional rain between drier periods before all areas see a thundery breakdown swing up from the SW next weekend. Thereafter the favourite option is for Low pressure to position itself close to the West with fresher Southerly winds and occasional rain, especially in the West. In these situations often East is best where some warm sunshine is likely at times and with winds from a Southerly quarter is should never feel overly cold.

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Thanks Martin.
Long term not a brilliant scenario. I am beginning to wonder whether summer 2014 may continue in the medium term in this vein with low pressure stuck out west creating a predominately Atlantic driven sunshine and showers set up at least for much of July (after the coming week) with temperatures at best average as a whole for the UK?

Possibly, but in that setup I'd expect temperatures to be a little above average and certainly very pleasant in the sun. Not too dissimilar to the last week or so.

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no mention of hot (gfs was showing 30+ yesterday) no mention of heatwave , all be it a short one ? . good stab though 🙂

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but would the precise shape and position of low pressure settling down to our west make a big difference in how things feel on the ground?

My feeling is a long, dry southerly draw from overland can be hot, enjoyable and memorable, while a south-westerly fetch from the tropics over the ocean is warm, humid and unpleasant. But I've always found summer synoptics hard to decypher, i.e. the difference  between what produces clear sunshine and what leaves us with cloud and/or sticky nights.

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Still on course for a classic plume by the looks of things from Wednesday onwards the first decent one of the summer.

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Thanks, Martin, though I'm not sure whether I'd describe things as 'firmed up'.

 

I've been following prospects for the north of England as I'm visiting there next week, and the forecast seems to be different every day e.g two days ago the MetO was for heavy thundery showers all over the North tomorrow (Sat), now it's going for a few light showers in some places.

Even this morning, say for next Thursday, GFS0z has a thundery low, ECM has a ridge from the NE with the low still off the SW, and MetO (extrapolating the fax charts) has a string of small depressions coming in off the Atlantic. I think the generally slack pressure around is still giving the models real problems, and it's going to be a case of 'plan the day before'.

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We'll try not to miss it by blinking.

But yes, some useful warm scenarios showing up in the mid-range outouts for next week, even if the whole thing looks all random and messy so it could be "Boom" or it may be a bust.
  For now, it would be nice to break out of this current Richardabdn-type regime at this end now. Don't mind a drop of rain every now and then to keep the lawn ticking over and I will admit to not being a huge fan of heat and high humidity, but when I've still got my hobby room lights on because it's still dark and gloomy and I can see that "WTF" look on passing tourists faces (as I live near a large hotel), I am starting to wonder how we went wrong in terms of summer-like weather. That northern-blocking set up doesn't really do any favours as far as my location is concerned. But of course, it hasn't been ALL bad, just feels like we've had this cloudy and wet weather for months on end when it really wasn't the case.

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That sounds about right - the source of the airmass is always important for how conditions feel at the surface.

That said, moisture can build up to the south too at times, resulting in similar conditions to a southwesterly. It all depends on the stability of the airmass.

 

Next week looks very unstable from midweek onwards, with some extreme weather possible if the likes if ECM verify.

The trough hasn't adjusted further west or sharpened up more as I hoped this morning, but there's still plenty of time to go, and these 'dug in' troughs often take longer to push NE than shown at the 6-10 day range - there's still some scope for it to become particularly hot as we progress into next weekend - more so than currently shown for the Wed-Fri period.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Very warm and settled Met/o 12z possibly hot and humid by Thursday with a storm risk in the far south.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Increasingly warm and humid ECM 12z with the thunder risk increasing by Thursday and into Friday.

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Having just seen the BBC weather forecast for the next couple of days days things look pretty unsettled and sunless despite the humidity and higher temperatures. From Monday nest week temperatures take a nose dive in our neck of the woods to the high teens with a lot of cloud around. It will be interesting to see if the Spanish Plume verifies.. I still feel this month is going to go down as preety unremarkable for the South East....

I'm guessing because it's so quiet in this thread
& those we rely on the most dont seem to be posting would tell us nobody really knows what way this will
plan out apart from Brian & the front page of TWO

Huge credit to all you 24/7 model output watchers

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ECM and MET O serve up an increasingly warm and dry week for the east, with a resumption of the very pleasant weather after the hiatus of the past few days in the SE, though for many the whole of the week has been pretty decent.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JULY 12TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A complex trough structure will cross East over the UK tonight and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright weather with some rain or showers at times. Remaing quite warm.

GFS The GFS operational today shows a fresher few days starting tomorrow with Westerly winds and a few showers before something of a warm and humid plume through midweek breaks down into the risk of thundery showers and a return to fresher Westerly winds and rain at times through the second week. The Ensembles too endorse this view with a pattern of Low pressure to the North and High to the SW remaining the main feature through the second week.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a small but significant thundery Low ending a warm and humid few days midweek with thundery showers and outbreaks of rain spreading slowly North and East later next week.

GEM The GEM operational today makes less of the plume but rather more of the complex Low pressure structure that brings about a change from the warm and humid weather into thundery showers and outbreaks of rain late next week and the weekend. Fresher Westerly Atlantic winds is then shown to lower temperatures with some rain at times to end the run, the rain chiefly over the North.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows very warm and humid air wafting North over Britain from midweek with a breakdown to thundery showers and then fresher air spreading slowly SW to NE across the UK to end the run next weekend.

ECM The ECM operational today shows very warm conditions next week across the South and East before a thundery trough crosses the UK late in the week introducing fresher South then Westerly winds as a complex Low pressure to the SW of the UK moves North over the Eastern Atlantic.

MY THOUGHTS  The pattern of the weather for the next couple of weeks seems to be fairly agreed upon by all the models with just the detail differing model to model. The overlying trend is for the weather to be largely fine and dry through a section of next week when it is likely to become very warm and humid, especially across the South and East. It then appears a thundery Low will cross North and East over the UK by the weekend and this then introduces a fresher Westerly flow from the Atlantic with resultant cooler air and occasional rain, chiefly in the North through Week 2. At the end of the period when we evaluate the two weeks past we will have all encountered quite a lot of pleasant and useable weather with only local parts seeing anything more significant rainfall wise and many Southern areas in particular seeing the vast majority of the time having been largely dry, bright and warm. So summarising there seems little weather related issues affecting our summer outdoor pursuits over the next few weeks as long as we cater for the occasional summer shower.

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Proper summer weather. Three fine days and a thunderstorm.

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ECM's still finding a more amplified solution than the other models and this is now starting in the 4-5 day range.

UKMO and GEM aren't all that different on the broad scale, but lack the pronounced trough/ridge combination. This means a bit less hot air is drawn up to the UK - though not by much, it appears. More importantly, it means a flatter jet that can push the plume away east more quickly than ECM shows.

 

Usually ECM tends to win a tug-of-war in the 4-5 day range, but being very much on its own this morning, it's hard to place too much confidence in it just now.

 

As usual, Martin has done an excellent summary of what we can therefore interpret from the models this morning 

 

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Ecm just needs a few more runs James but she,s getting there

last nights members stunning charts in the mix

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014071112!!/