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Arcus
18 July 2014 18:40:48


Fully-fledged supercell on the way toward a brush with the far SE.


That should provide quite a light show as the evening daylight fades.


 


The MCS looks like being an entirely seperate convective system, just starting to develop in the region of La Rochelle from the looks of things.


A supercell could also form along the way, but those things prefer to be isolated from other convective systems, with a single focus area for uplifting becoming larger and larger, producing the exceptionally high cloud tops currently visible on satellite imagery, and hence the frenzied lightning activity.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


It's a fully feldged MCS certainly. And I would call it as not just brushing the far SE.  Look for development more and more to the W in the Channel as well.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Bugglesgate
18 July 2014 18:41:46

Fully-fledged supercell on the way toward a brush with the far SE.


That should provide quite a light show as the evening daylight fades.


 


The MCS looks like being an entirely seperate convective system, just starting to develop in the region of La Rochelle from the looks of things.


A supercell could also form along the way, but those things prefer to be isolated from other convective systems, with a single focus area for uplifting becoming larger and larger, producing the exceptionally high cloud tops currently visible on satellite imagery, and hence the frenzied lightning activity.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



Frankly, I'm glad I'm too far west to get caught by that. I like a good storm as much as the next guy but there are limits [sn_shock]


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Nordic Snowman
18 July 2014 18:43:56

These intense storms which should clip Kent look pretty severe.


There seems to be very little else in the immediate few hours after this.


Would that be as expected or do you think the current cells knocking into Kent were expected to be further W and thus covering a larger area? If the latter, you could be forgiven for thinking that things have gone a littlle pete tong. I could be off the mark and it was never really until later tonight that sparks are due to hit a more widepread area of S England.


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
nsrobins
18 July 2014 18:44:09

Have to say that the lightning strike rate in that system is very, very impressive for something knocking on the door of our shores.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I concur. Super-impressive strike rates in that line and monsoon ppn. And it's only an advanced guard of the main cluster now forming over the W Brest peninsula.


Then we have tomorrows fun and games.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
18 July 2014 18:54:05

So, should I lock down and get the video cam fired up? Only one way to find out.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Whether Idle
18 July 2014 18:54:39

The storms that have entered the Channel seem to be intensifying, or is it just wishful thinking?

Originally Posted by: POD 



Watching China Crisis in Dover this evening, so definately some Wishful Thinking here!
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 18:57:28


The storms that have entered the Channel seem to be intensifying, or is it just wishful thinking?


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Watching China Crisis in Dover this evening, so definately some Wishful Thinking here!

Originally Posted by: POD 



An outdoor gig I assume, what time does it kick off?


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
Arcus
18 July 2014 18:59:05
Do we have anyone in Eastbourne/Hastings area? Would be nice to know what's actually occurring in the real world.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Quantum
18 July 2014 18:59:41

I think the metoffice needs to issue a tornado warning for the south coast. 


EHIs are 4+ in France which is easily enough for tornado formation. In the UK they are projected to be about ~1 which is enough for supercells. 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
18 July 2014 19:01:37


The storms that have entered the Channel seem to be intensifying, or is it just wishful thinking?


Originally Posted by: POD 



Watching China Crisis in Dover this evening, so definately some Wishful Thinking here!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



An outdoor gig I assume, what time does it kick off?

Originally Posted by: POD 



Indoors, town hall at 9. Hopefully pre storm...
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2014 19:04:11

Do we have anyone in Eastbourne/Hastings area? Would be nice to know what's actually occurring in the real world.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 



I seem to recall someone in the Peacehaven area, could be in a prime location.


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
warrenb
18 July 2014 19:05:11
Getting very dark to the south here in Tonbridge, about 35 miles from the coast
Arcus
18 July 2014 19:09:40


I think the metoffice needs to issue a tornado warning for the south coast. 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


In a fairly large scale system like this it's not very common to find tornadic development. Any rougue individual cells that form are more likely candidates, possibly generating by splintering from the main system.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
picturesareme
18 July 2014 19:10:31

These intense storms which should clip Kent look pretty severe.


There seems to be very little else in the immediate few hours after this.


Would that be as expected or do you think the current cells knocking into Kent were expected to be further W and thus covering a larger area? If the latter, you could be forgiven for thinking that things have gone a littlle pete tong. I could be off the mark and it was never really until later tonight that sparks are due to hit a more widepread area of S England.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 



I don't think it's particularly warm here in our region this evening. The air is quite fresh feeling. I wonder if it's our cooler air interacting with the warmth further east that's fueling that brute of a storm clouds. I've a lovely view of the storm moving onshore to east (I'm currently by eastney)
Quantum
18 July 2014 19:14:28



I think the metoffice needs to issue a tornado warning for the south coast. 


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


In a fairly large scale system like this it's not very common to find tornadic development. Any rougue individual cells that form are more likely candidates, possibly generating by splintering from the main system.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


On the western flank there is a very real risk of that happening, although tbh I would have thought it was more likely in france. But the EHI is easily going to be high enough for super cells, Lis in france are in double digits. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
18 July 2014 19:15:00
Am starting to hear distant rumbles of thunder and the storm hasn't even hit the south coast yet.
yorkshirelad89
18 July 2014 19:19:27

Looks like the storms are starting to approach Kent now, still some very bright echoes on the rainfall radar and frequent lightning strikes in the Channel 


Hull
Gusty
18 July 2014 19:20:21

Flat calm, 25c, becoming darker to the SSW by the second with occasional booms. This is going to kick off. 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Goldieno1
18 July 2014 19:20:53

I'm not in Eastbourne but friends are on coast, Eastbourne is under a barrage, multiple forked lighting off Rottingdean and flashes overhead in Worthing.


 


I'm in Mid sussex and its constant booming (but distant) thunder.


Hell of a storm somebody is having


 

Bob G
18 July 2014 19:21:54

I've been watching these live lightning sites for a while, I've never seen anything like this:


http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=12


Good luck all the guys/girls in Kent, this looks like a big one.

Mandrake
18 July 2014 19:24:59

Confused, is this storm approaching the SE suppose to be the main system thought to be distributing storms across more western/central areas early tomorow morning?


 

Quantum
18 July 2014 19:25:28

Precip rates are off the chart still. Anyway the storms are hitting the south coast now. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Matty H
18 July 2014 19:26:14
Out of sheer morbid curiosity, and I'm fairly sure I know the answer, but has the UKMO ever issued a tornado warning for anywhere in the UK?


No. Probably?
idj20
18 July 2014 19:26:36

Just seen the first flicker of sheet lightning over the Channel and it's come over all ominous. Off to spectate, but don't like that heavy rainfall returns on the radars.


 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Jive Buddy
18 July 2014 19:26:42

No sign of a reduction in strength as the Rouen storms make a break for it into the Channel. Will they make it to Kent intact? Maybe the Kentish folk would rather they didn't, as they are monsters.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yup, 'tis true....many Kent folk are monsters (especially round here) 


I'm caught in two minds over this one: One one hand, I haven't seen a decent light show since I was in South Africa, but on the other hand, I'm on duty tonight, and holding the call out phone 24/7! I'd rather sit and watch it skim by, than have to gou out in it methinks 


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.

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