http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif

Next Sunday's warmth on view

Superb ECM 12z run so far!

GFS 12z much improved - looking like we might be lucky. Certainly warm!

But this is a great example of why it's a total lottery to holiday in the UK. So dependent on the weather, because 18c, wet and windy just ruins any holiday.

A 1995 style UK high appears on the ECM run as it finds a bit more amplification to the jet than GFS does but keeps the trough influence around Greenland intact to prevent retrogression of the HP in that direction 

With the thermal inertia from this coming week, a UK high could again bring similar temperatures, though an initial freshening of the air - and dip in temperatures for a day or two - could occur if the circulation is strong enough to pull a bit of air in around the periphery.

I don't think many in England for example would mind that after seeing mid to high 20's from now out to Sunday, though 

I reckon people desiring relentless heat (I have conflicting opinions over that one) would be very pleased with a blend of around 3/4 ECM 12z op, 1/4 GFS 12z op.

The 12z GEM looks like a 50:50 blend of them, and even that is something to behold:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014072012/gem-0-240.png?12

This is all starting to feel rather amazing, and believe it or not, the CFS model has been indicating a strong influence from the Azores High in August! 

Perhaps we'll have a nice go at something like August 2003?* 

*not even remotely a forecast 

That's a BBQ picture isn't it? looking great for almost all of us!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014072012/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?20-19

The airflow is expected to be a little north of easterly, turning more northerly toward the weekend.

That essentially gives the South Coast some of the longest overland stretches in the UK, producing a more continental style atmosphere.

The same sort of thing occured last July for a stretch of days, which saw southern coastal cities breaking 30*C on numerous days 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JULY 21ST 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will cover the British Isles for the next 24 hours or so.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Plenty of fine, warm or very warm weather with the risk of a few thundery showers in the South for a time later this week.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows that pressure builds to the NE through this week with a ridge across the UK from it. Late in the week this High declines to be replaced by another to the SW of the UK also extending a ridge across Southern Britain by the end of next weekend. In the transition period the risk of thundery showers returns across Southern Britain later this week in among the otherwise very warm or hot weather with sunny spells. Through Week 2 a NW/SE split in the weather seems likely with rather cloudy weather with some rain at times in the North and West but continuing dry and fine in the South and East for the most part. The Ensembles are similar through Week 1 but through week 2 the trend is against the lower pressure to the NW and instead indicates a similar fine weather pattern UK wide with High pressure close by and just the chance of a storm or two in the South at times.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure to the NE declining as we move through next weekend but maintaining very warm air across the UK. As pressure falls over the South and humidity remains high thunderstorms could again become a feature of the weather in the South while the North maintains fine and dry weather.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a GFS'esque ensemble solution with High pressure over Scandinavia this week being displaced by a new one to the West of the UK which drifts over the top of us next week. This means that after the risk of thundery showers in the South increase for a time late this week fine weather returns for all thereafter with further warm or very warm temperatures and sunny spells for most.

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains a more defined link between High pressure to the NE and West of the UK through it's run with lots of fine and settled weather under the ridge. Pressure will be somewhat lower in the South at times and the risk of a thundery shower in response to continuing high temperatures is quite high at times.

ECM The ECM operational today shows High pressure to the NE this week gradually declining in the wake of thundery Low pressure close to SE Britain late this week and over the weekend. Throughout this period it will be very warm and sunny for many away from the showers. Next week shows Low pressure instead developing over Scandinavia with High pressure close to the SW. Should this evolve a cooler and fresher NW flow later backing SW will cover all areas with the risk of a little rain towards the NE and latterly the NW with the best weather then transferring towards the SW and South.

MY THOUGHTS  The models this morning are well supporting of a fine and very warm period of weather which is left open ended this morning in as much that no one model shows a definitive and common ground end to the spell in sight. The common theme is for High pressure to lie to the NE this week transferred to one from the West next week. All in all a lot of fine and very warm weather looks likely for the next couple of weeks. With Southern Britain lying in the periphery of High pressure later this week as the Scandinavian one declines some thundery showers are possible for a period lasting for three or four days staring from Thursday but should the High to the West take over next week we would most likely see cleaner and fresher though still warm air move across from the West and North engulfing the UK with plenty of sunshine with any rainfall likely to come from the incursion of Atlantic troughs in the far NW at times. So all in all as we hit the peak holiday weeks the UK looks like enjoying some fine and very warm weather for some considerable time with plenty of warm sunshine for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Met/o looks hot and thundery this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

ECM isn't far off either.

^^^^^^^^^^^ http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ^^^^^^^^^^^

Much warm there for the hotties

The westerly push at the weekend aims more east than northeast this morning on the GFS and ECM 00z op runs.

It's also strong enough to drive the Atlantic troughs all the way to our NE.

Despite this, upstream developments soon drive new trough development well west of the UK, which in turn displaces the Azores High across the UK. Signs are it could then have a go at building a new area of high pressure across Scandinavia.

It's a good sign to see such a fast recovery even after what could have been a major spanner is thrown at the works.

UKMO and GEM offer a different way around things, as the westerly push is delayed and/or weaker, with a trough to our NW avoiding being caught by said westerlies, instead sliding quickly SE through the UK with a ridge from the west building in behind (though this is an estimation of what follows day 6 in the case of UKMO).

Either way, there's good agreement on a new ridge from the southwest next week after some kind of transitory destabilisation and possible freshening of the air at the end of this week.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Prolonged Warm Spell To End September Or October?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Also has a look at the weather for weekend and next week. Might turn a bit cooler for a time early next week, but as SC say's the Azores High is never far away.

06z jet:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140721/06/81/hgt300.png

12z jet:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140721/12/75/hgt300.png

Hmmn.

The jet has suddenly been toned down a notch on days 2-3. This causes a trough over Canada to peak further west, which in turn takes the thrust out of the westerly burst previously modelled to cross the North Atlantic, allowing a more meridional pattern to establish by day 4:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140721/12/96/hgt300.png

...as opposed to what the previous runs had:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140721/06/102/hgt300.png

This sudden jump brings the model in line with UKMO's 00z output.

At such short range, too! Sometimes I really do wonder...

Hi Matty, it was more a comment on model unreliability than anything else to be honest.

The consequence later in time is a bit more of a trough/ridge/trough thing going on across the Atlantic - not as flat as before. 

That doesn't allow the Azores High to nose in quite so quickly late this week, but as we begin next week, the high isn't supressed so much by energy heading to our NE.

It's  basically a trade off - but with the gain for next week likely to be greater than the loss at the weekend, as the more robust ridge steers what is by then a weak jet stream to the north of the UK with more success than the 06z showed:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140721/12/252/h850t850eu.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140721/12/252/hgt300.png

The jet near the UK has all but fizzled out by that time. With the mid-Atlantic jet diving so sharply south, this should evolve into a substantial plume event (a good match for 8th-10th August 2003...) - but I reckon lower-res will tone it down more than would actually occur.

*looks at the output to +300h*

Ah yes, so it does