Keep it rational, factual and on topic

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OK...

It is bound to get better and there is plenty of time for summery weather as it is only mid-August.

The outlook is cool and showery and a bit pants

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif  [sn_bsmil] [sn_clown]

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The Met/o 12z is cool and showery to.

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The JMA extends the 0C upper air even further south into the far North of England.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081512/J96-7.GIF?15-12

ECM offers some hope of a milder end to the month below with slightly milder uppers but that's 10 days off until then it is going to be unseasonably cool.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014081512/ECM0-240.GIF?15-0

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Would lower in any heavy showers of course White across the mountain tops of scotland and some cold nights in the mix for summer, away from the s/e on the 12zgfs run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/108h.htm

Q might start talking about the lake effect soon

ps He always enjoys that

 

I wonder if this very unusual cool weather coming to us was the one that gave Toronto a first time to see 18.4C as a max temps in mid-August since I been recording it.   Death Valley have a cooler August too with 3 times rain being recorded.  Temps should recover thankfully next late week and into the BH weekend.

 

Why is it 'unusual'? Northerly flows are not that unusual in August, with temps around 4deg below mean.
It's been a decent summer thus far IMO - a balancing of the books is totally understandable.

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A really cool outlook this morning, tonight's depression is a peach if you like unseasonal cold with a strong north wind digging in behind the depression. If it was January TWO would be alive with blizzard forecasts!

The BH drier spell is also looking shaky this morning with GFS limiting any decent weather to one day, it's all such a change from 3 weeks ago.

Anyone camping in Scotland this week will need a thick jumper!

Andy

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I notice the models often correct with in the far FI when they show BH weekend very decent one for many days then come to the mid term which they are now replaced with LP so give a few days to seei it corrected back to HP nationwide again.  Also few days ago they were showing deep LP over here during the mid week only to be gone with HP from the W edging in slowly so mostly dry all week for the south.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY AUGUST 16TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low pressure will move slowly SE towards NE Scotland later today and tonight. An associated trough crosses steadily South across the UK followed by a cool and showery NW flow tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A mix of sunshine and scattered showers with the driest and warmest conditions developing towards the SW later.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving SE across the UK currently before it shifts slowly South and wekens for a time to be over Northern France. Later in the run the flow migrates back North and stengthens somewhat moving East across the North.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows a good week of NW winds, not always strong but always cool with a mix of sunshine and scattered showers across the UK, these most likely towards the North and NE. By next weekend the weather improves for a while as a ridge crosses over from the West ahead of a more mobile Westerly flow with rain at times, heaviest in the North reaches the UK through week 2. The Ensembles this morning differ very little from the sequence given by the operational.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure over Scandinavia with a cool but fairly light NW flow following with a cool mix of sunshine and scattered showers likely through the middle and end days of the coming working week.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a period of NW winds across the UK between Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure over the Atlantic with cool and showery NW winds blowing down across the UK.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a very similar pattern to that offered by GFS with sunny spells and scattered showers in a cool north or NW wind this week before a ridge of High pressure crosses East opening the door from the West to more blustery and unsettled westerly flow with rain at times to end the run. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the trend of others with a cool week to come with some showers and brings a ridge of High pressure in close to western Britain to end the run damping down the showers next weekend. 

ECM The ECM operational just to complete the theme also brings Atlantic Low pressure up to the NW with winds backing away from this weeks cool NW flow to a more SW flow with rain at times towards the end of the period.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The general trend today shows the cool NW flow of this week giving way to more mobile Westerly pattern through Week 2 with rain at times on blustery West or SW winds.

MY THOUGHTS  The pattern of the models this week illustrate a cool and showery NW flow with some very cool nights likely especially away from the windier NE before the weekend sees pressure rise as a ridge crosses East with dry and bright weather likely next weekend followed by a decline in conditions as Atlantic Westerly winds take over with rain at times through Week 2 with the emphasis on the heaviest rain being towards the NW in steadily recovering temperatures towards average. High pressure is never likely to be far away to the South or SW through the period of the output today and as a result amounts of rain overall are likely to be small across more Southern Britain.

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I only rear my head when I have a moan. But I do feel increasingly put off by some of the comment in here. I just find it sad that in August we have to have discussion of record breaking lows, frost, possible snow etc on the very highest of peaks (of which the Scottish mountain thread is perfectly fine for that sort of stuff). I get it is said in jest more often than not. But coupled with the thread on Winter 2014-15 (let us ignore the next three months of weather, weather enthusiasts!! Who cares for Autumn anyway!), winter-esque rhetoric, along with the writing off August as an 'Autumn' month (which it will never ever be.. we even had a thread solely dedicated to this topic) just diminishes the credibility of the discussion. A cool spell in the middle of August is nothing unusual, nor a prophetical sign of anything chilly come Winter. Indeed, with any luck here in Kent at least the outlook is not too bad, and is actually rather average really, or hanging about there. I get it will be slightly cooler than average (more so up North)- I do not dispute this -, but I feel analysing it through the rose-tinted snow goggles of yesteryear gives us who do not understand the weather very well a false impression of the reality.

Rational, well argued and factual interpretation is what us lurkers look for in MOD. I see nothing record breaking in the outlook, or indeed anything other than a not so surprising cooler spell in an otherwise fantastic summer (down here at any rate). I dont get why Winter rhetoric bleeds into the model output discussion from August until May (it seems). The only months where we are lucky to not actually have the words snow, frost 'record breaking' (in a colder context) etc mentioned is June and July... which is highly ironic because most people actually haven't seen a flake of snow for well over a year (so why does it get mentioned so much!).

Anyway, rant over. Moderators delete if appropriate, posters dispute if necessary.

The outlook is unseasonably cool for next week but yes nothing record breaking and not that unusual either for August.

However, there could be some wet snow over the highest peaks in Scotland in the days ahead.

There is also a risk of ground frost later in the week as winds fall light and if clear sky's occur.

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Great post. I'd like to think posters like Quantum will take note, which he appears to have to be fair. There's seems to be a trend by some to force winter down the throat of summer with over-hyped, misleading, cold-biased (when it's not even remotely cold or even chilly) rhetoric.

We'll keep on top of it.

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Good post Duane, summed up well. It will be noticeably cool for a while next week but let's remember that's not all that unusual for August. At least the heavy rain GFS was toying with a few days ago looks unlikely now- so my camping trip won't be too badly affected. Must remember to take my long johns though!

Bugger.

 

Some of yesterday's runs were showing a really pleasant BH weekend, such as the 6z: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/08/15/basis06/euro/prec/14082506_1506.gif

Unfortunately, today's output sees a total washout - same date/time from this morning's 6z: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/08/16/basis06/euro/prec/14082506_1606.gif

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Bear in mind, I find any record interesting, not just cold ones. I have many times posted about potential record warmth, or wind speeds e.c.t. And at any given instance the record itself is unlikely, but that being said, we are going to see an unusual cold shot and it isn't irrational to say that. While northerly blasts in August are not unusual, the airmass is unusually cold, bear in mind that the coldest air in the arctic (greenland excepted) has been over the atlantic sector for weeks now, and that is closest to the UK. This combination of a direct northerly blast with lingering cold towards the end of August rather than the start, is a rare combination such that it rightly should produce some interest. Sure the thread shouldn't be derailed with prophecy about winter or anything silly like that. But why shouldn't we look upon a cold spell in August with interest? And to me this weather is perfect, I cannot stand it when the temp is much above 20C, when the temps are in the teens I can get out and do stuff. 

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There is actually a very modest lake effect visible on the models:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/48_30.gif

Lake effect is easy to spot because the precip avoids the inland and hugs the coast. But its very weak, as is expected in Mid August.

It is extremely weak though. Note the 850hpas

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140816/06/48/h850t850eu.png

And the SSTs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.fc.gif

So we have SSTs about 14-15C in N scotland, and 850hpa temps at 1-2C

That gives a gradient of 13C which is basically the minimun for the lake effect to occur. Usually you need 15C+ to get any substantial precipatation out of it. 

 

 

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I think that it is perfectly fair to mention the fact that the weather conditions will be several degrees below average for August in much of the coming week, cold enough for ground frosts and snow on the mountain tops. Why? Simply because that is what the models show. In a weather forum it would be a bit silly not to mention it.

Up until a couple of weeks ago it was glorious weather for many, that was predicted and discussed (including by me when I want in the garden or away somewhere in the sunshine). Pleasant or otherwise colder conditions, their impact and synoptics leading to such conditions are perfectly valid for discussion. If not then this entire thread is pointless. The thread reflects the BBC forecasts and summaries whose main focus is for the below average temperatures.

Random off-topic nonsense is of course annoying but there is very little of that on display in the forum currently IMO. Give it a few weeks!

On the plus side for many (although possibly not here), while it will be cool and showery, away from northern parts it should not be overly wet. I think autumnal weather would sum it up nicely and only thing really for debate is how long will it last and will it be followed by another taste of summer. I for one hope so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

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It's not the mentioning of it, it's the blanket coverage and dissecting as if snow is forecast to blanket the nation. An isolated, barely populated part of the UK may see a flake or two. For everyone else temps will be several degrees below average and nothing extraordinary for August, or any month for that matter.

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All true , although I will of course be climbing a 4000ft mountain to find that snowflake. 😊 [sn_clown]

On a more positive note the 12z GFS continues with the hints that things may turn a bit warmer and more settled in 10 days or so.

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I think what's different is the fact that we've had many months of above average CET's on the trot and now we are in with a chance of a below average one or at the very least average. Not been the case for a long long while. Certainly a change of emphasis in that regard.

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I like your spirit, roll on some interesting weather and it is certainly that at the moment. Bertha ( or at least its warm core ) really brought a change in the weather

 

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What's made it such a talking point is the shock of the sudden, almost overnight change in temperature.  We've become accustomed to the warmth after two months of almost continous mid twenties temps - at least that's how it's been here.  Had this been a grey and miserable summer, we'd hardly be batting an eyelid at the output.

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Yep, another major turnround between the 6z and 12z.

There seems to be consensus that toward next Friday, the low centred to the east of the UK will fill and drift slightly eastwards. This will allow a ridge to be thrown northwards over the UK by the AH.

The uncertainty surrounds how quickly the next Atlantic low barges its horrible arse over the UK. Some runs are showing the ridge holding on until Mon/Tue, others it being shunted away as early as Saturday.

Given it's a Bank Holiday weekend (and, more importantly, I'm in the Lakes for a long weekend), the timing is more crucial than normal.

 

 

I'm just glad the place we're staying has a great indoor pool complex 

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Looking with interest at next saturday

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/186_30.gif

Ridge moves into the cold airmass. Best chance of seeing some impressive nightime minima. I suspect subzero temps won't be that hard to comeby in rural Scotland. 

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