I wonder what we will see down south with the likes of that.

Funny how these things happen together all over the world. Currently having a cool wet August in Sydney. This is very unusual as it is supposed to be the driest time of the year. But unseasonaly wet and cool here.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY AUGUST 17TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low pressure near to Northern Scotland will move slowly East out into the Northern north Sea through the day. A strong and cool NW flow will push a weakening trough South over Southern Britain this morning.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly rather cool with sunshine and showers and with some longer spells of rain at times later more especially over the North and West.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving SE across the UK currently before it shifts slowly South and blows West to East increasingly stronger in a week or so at the same time as shifting slowly North on a similar axis to be cross the UK at the end of the period.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows a lengthy period of cool weather with a light to moderate NW flow giving sunshine and showers by day and very col nights. The winds turn more cyclonic through Week 2 with more organised bands of rain and showers pushing East across the UK through Week 2. The GFS Ensembles endorse the above pattern pretty much in full though at the end of the run a more meaningful push of Atlantic High pressure ridge towards Southern Britain looks possible.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a pool of cool unstable air over the UK under a slack Northerly flow early next weekend. So following a cool and breezy week of sunshine and scattered showers there looks to be a risk of more widespread and heavy showers next weekend under the unstable airmass shown.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a period of NW winds across the UK between Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure over the Atlantic with cool and occasionally showery NW winds blowing down across the UK.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a very similar pattern to that offered by GFS with sunny spells and scattered showers in a cool North or NW wind this week before a ridge of High pressure crosses East next weekend opening the door from the West to more blustery and unsettled and cyclonic Westerly flow with rain at times to end the run. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the trend of others with a cool week to come with some showers and brings a ridge of High pressure in close to Western Britain to end the run damping down the showers next weekend ahead of more cyclconic Atlantic winds look likely to push East over the UK through the following week. 

ECM The ECM operational shows the cool North or NW flow too through this week with some bright sunny spells in between. By next weekend winds will fall very light as a weak ridge crosses East ahead of cyclonic Atlantic winds withrain at times for all arrives in Week 2.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The general trend today maintains the cool NW flow of this week giving way to more mobile Westerly pattern through Week 2 with rain at times on blustery West or SW winds.

MY THOUGHTS  The pattern of the models this week illustrate a cool and showery NW flow with some very cool nights likely especially away from the windier NE before the weekend sees pressure rise as a ridge crosses East with dry and bright weather likely next weekend followed by a decline in conditions as Atlantic Westerly winds take over with rain at times through Week 2 with the emphasis on the heaviest rain being towards the NW in steadily recovering temperatures towards average.

This morning's runs from both GFS and ECM are back to showing the worst case scenario, with the low charging through and flattening the ridge as soon as Saturday night

I'm glad you said that!

Yeah, questions this morning about the last week of August - Had hoped for improvements, but not sure now...

I've noticed a cool August often leads to a cool September - but I am sure there are some exceptions to that one.

the MODELS have been flip flipping about since last month, a call of a hot august was on the cards from what i can remember, but turns out not,, anyway i see MR BRIAN has made a call of starting his WHITE CHRISTMAS 2014 COUNT DOWN ALREADY on BUZZ 

Displacement of arctic airmass shown very niceley on NH theta:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_Global/36_5_nh.gif

Anything beyond a few days has to be a punt although the prevailing set-up may give you more ot less leeway epending on the stability at the time.

I've never been convinced otherwise, especially after 10 years of weather watching and my increasingly deep reviewing of data since starting my own page.

Ex-Bertha is a good example of what can happen to upset synoptics at short range

I know naff all about model watching but I know anything beyond five days isn't worth hanging hopes on and forecasts are just forecasts not scripts to be followed.  It always makes me smile when people quote newspaper weather forecasts as if they're set in stone, yet they're only every right by a very lucky guess, but people still swallaw it as gospel!  But they don't know any better.

I find it equally amusing when TWO members get hung up about LRF's and we shoujld know better, especially as we know full well the models can differ greatly from each other and that they often change by each run.  I suppose that's the nature of weather watching and we're all on here to discuss weather, whether it pleases us or not.

Anyway, I came on here to see if I could make out what the most recent model output was and ended up off topic like everyone else!  So is the outlook still bleak?  Is summer over? 

Thanks Matty.  I kind of guessed there was little change by the nature of the discussion! 

Haha Meteorologically speaking there isn't much Summer left - about 2 weeks. But most of us know including I'm sure you that September can still bring Summer like weather - take 2011 as an example, it's an extreme example I know haha but it's an example of how we can get very warm weather right into the month. It is more than possible. Of course October is far more difficult to achieve very warm temps like 25C as traditionally that is when the Atlantic begins to fire up, also the ever shortening days and less warm air masses to tap into. In fact on average in my location it's the wettest month of the year.

Funnily enough, ECM uses an ex-tropical system to shift the pattern back towards one that has a ridge through Europe trying to build up to the UK from day 10. This manages to occur despite the storm system racing NE through the UK.

GEM shows what happens if it digs down to our SW instead - a better ridge than ECM has by day 10.

GFS doesn't really model this system yet, instead shoving the Atlantic across to bring unsettled westerlies.

Until then... a rather boring northerly flow for 5 days running  - though a few convective features are possible 

You don't think I'm the Man The Office Fears then?

Careful Gav, Brian doesn't like lawlsuits.