HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY AUGUST 19TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure will persist over Scandinavia with a cool NW flow with showery troughs continuing to blow down over the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly changeable with a mix of cloudy and rainy periods alternating with showers and occasionally dry and brighter conditions, these still most likely across the South. Rather breezy and cool at times.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream shows a Northern arm of the Jet Stream currently blowing down across the UK from the NW weakening and dissipating over the coming days before a single flow reinvigorates West to East across Southern Britain or France for the rest of the high resolution part of the output next week.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows the cool NW flow of this week with it's sunshine and showers giving way to more unsettled weather next week as Low pressure moves in off the Atlantic with rain and strong winds possible for all. This will be intersected by a ridge of High pressure this coming weekend with both Saturday and Sunday looking good for many. Longer term the Westerly pattern is shown to persist with rain at times in Westerly breezes and average temperatures. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar although a longer drier and brighter spells over the South close to a ridge of High pressure offers some warmer and brighter weather for a time late next week before Low pressure returns to end the run.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a ridge of High pressure crossing East at the weekend with some pleasant warmer and drier weather for a time before early next week sees a marked Low pressure area advancing in from the West off the Atlantic and bringing rain and wind with it.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain a cool and unstable airflow from the NW over the UK up to next weekend with a mix of sunnier moments mixed with more showery and cloudier interludes before a slack ridge across the UK at the weekend ensures a drier and warmer interlude.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the showery airflow this week giving way to a brighter and less cool few days around the weekend. Next week then shows a deep Low and strong SW winds bringing troughs NE across the UK with rain or showers for all. Temperatures will be higher than recently despite this weather but any actual higher temperatures will be offset by the strength of the breeze. High pressure is shown to build slowly NE across the Southern half of the UK by 10 days time with drier and quieter conditions as a result. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM brings Low pressure in from the west next week following the weekend ridge. It ends it's run next Tuesday with LOow pressure well esconsed across the UK with plenty of heavy showers and longer spells of rain across all areas in fresh cyclonic breezes. 

ECM The ECM operational shows a broad Westerly flow across the UK next week. With a Low centre drifting across the UK with wind, rain and showers likely for all early next week conditions slowly improve as the emhasis of Low pressure shifts North somewhat with lighter winds and longer drier periods possible across the South by the second weekend.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There again seems little shift of emhasis in this morning's output to the pattern that has been shown now for repeated runs of late with changeable weather the most dominant trend shown for all areas.

MY THOUGHTS  The changeable often Low pressure based weather remains the most prolific pattern shown across all models this morning. The current cool and showery conditions will give way to a quieter period under an Eastward moving ridge coinciding with the weekend to give a couple of dry, bright and less cool days. However, all models sweep this away early next week as Low pressure moves across with wind, rain and showers for all. Thereafter there is a slow build of pressure shown from the South or SW from a variety of runs and this has to be given some credence of possibility. However, as has seemed to be the case of so often this August pressure seems much more reluctant to rise from the SW than was shown earlier in the Summer and it may well be that an unsettled Westerly flow remains the most likely longer term option powered by a stronger Jet flow crossing the Atlantic close to the UK by then. As it stands at the moment the Bank Holiday Weekend improvements likely for the first two days may not last through Monday at least in the West.

Indeed Dave.

A generally unsettled look to the models this morning.

Quite often lately, a sharp temperature gradient around the East U.S. Coast, which fuelled last winters Atlantic storm chain, has been cropping up and giving the jet stream a boost.

That looks like happening again sometime next week, and as we head towards autumn, there is the risk seeing a train of storms affecting the UK.

What about positive news then... well, GFS is suggesting that Monday might be alright across the SE at least, having trended in the right direction for such an escape. UKMO is similar but ECM looks a little more progressive in pushing the frontal rain across.

At least there's something to play for now 

Actually I've already covered Hurricane Charley here;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/hurricanecharley.html

Not sure what historic video I'll do this weekend. May ask folks what they'd like to see.

Anyway, here's today's video update:

Unsettled Last Week To August;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Maybe the first signs of improvements for the turn of the month?

Perhaps he'll wait until actual winter.

Unless you've a desperate need for w*nk material  

I don't mind doing 1979 now if that's what people want to see. I'll have to do it sometime, so now is as good a time as any really.

The storyline of 78-79 really begins in the autumn, so it's not such a stretch to do it now anyway...

Open to other suggestions though, and then I'll see which one most interest's me.

GFS 12z picking up on our pretty much annual early September heatwave?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.gif

I hope so Gavin as we're having our roof done, starting on September 1st. Some dry warm weather wouldn't go amiss.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY AUGUST 20TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak ridge of High pressure will move slowly SE across the UK through today followed by Low pressure and further troughs moving into NW Britain tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly changeable weather with a mix of cloudy and rainy periods alternating with showers and occasionally dry and brighter conditions, these looking increasingly likely across the South. Rather breezy and cool at times but warmer in the South with time.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST After a period of a slack flow slipping further South later in the weekend and next week to a position close to Southern Britain and Northern France the flow markedly strengthens while moving back North again to lie between Scotland and Iceland in an eastward moving direction late in the period.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows a changeable pattern over the next few weeks. The sequence shows a High pressure ridge swept away East at the start of next week as an Atlantic Low moves East across the UK with rain and showers for all. With time the weather dows improve by the end of next week as a ridge crosses east again. In turn a further spell of windy and unsettled weather under Low pressure crossing East to the North is the precursor to a marked rise of pressure with fine and quiet conditions to end the run with some warm sunshine by day and mist and fog patches by night. The GFS Ensembles reflect this pattern well though in Week 2 the switch towards High pressure based weather is more pronounced with much warmer conditions shown nationwide with temperatures rising above average and with light winds and sunny days and some overnight mist and fog patches.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure sliding East across the South of the UK early next week with rain or showers at times in temperatures rather shy of average in cyclonic winds.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show an unstable NW flow with embedded troughs slipping SE across the UK between now and the weekend when a ridge of high pressure moving East across us displaces the cool and showery NW flow with fine and bright weather though with advancing Low pressure and fronts moving towards Western Britain on Sunday.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the ridge at the weekend giving way to Low pressure moving in from the west early next week with rain and showers for all as a result. This then becomes absorbed by deeper Low pressure to the NW with pressure slowly recovering from the South. This then sets up a North/South split in the weather with rain at times across the north while the South trend drier, brighter and warmer. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows next weeks Low pressure crossing East early in the week and more quickly followed by a strong rise of pressure with sunny spells and fine weather by this time next week. 

ECM The ECM operational shows a similar pattern with a ridge midweek displacing the early week Low pressure with rain and showers with dry and fine weather for a time. It becomes a false dawn however as further Atlantic Low pressure with wind and rain spills back in from the Atlantic late next week and into next weekend.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is some support given for pressure to build across the South of the UK later next week at least for a time which is a new trendexpanded upon somewhat this morning .

MY THOUGHTS  The changeable often Low pressure based weather remains the most prolific pattern shown across all models this morning. The current cool and showery conditions will give way to a quieter period under an Eastward moving ridge coinciding with the weekend to give a couple of dry, bright and less cool days. However, all models sweep this away early next week as Low pressure moves across with wind, rain and showers for all. The trend towards a build of pressure across at least the South has gained some momentum this morning though the extent and duration of such remains open to question between the different models this morning. My own view is that the weather will probably warm up later next week in the South with all areas remaining at risk of some rain though I think a backing of winds towards the SW will bring less cool and possibly warmer conditions towards Southern and Eastern Britain at times from later next week with some dry spells between the outbreaks of rain. The North and West though might become more substantially wet and windy at times as active and deeper autumnal Lows lie near to Iceland.

As about the comments about kids going back to school would be right as I feel September will be warmer, drier and far much better than wash out poor August as there many Augusts in the row had been very poor.  Bank Holiday look fine here to keep the last Mega car boot sales on before the unwelcome rain come in the afternoon when they are finished. Got away with it last Sunday when I went home before the unexpected squall came around noon time as they are already packed up and closed.

Make the most of Saturday and Sunday, Monday looks a shocker

The Met/o 12z is cool and unsettled after that ridge has gone though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS 12z is fair to say autumnal at times throughout.

As I read from NW that ECM came up a different run and restoring a decent BH weekend for here had put GFS to follow suit so a much delayed LP from moving in so leaving a decent warm day on Monday. I remember they were correct in the FI when they been showing very decent BH weekend so hopefully in the next few runs to restore that to make it nationwide decent BH than just the SE.