Can't disagree Matty though cloud may be more of a problem again later. However, here's how I see the progress of this extended fine weather spell for many with this morning's model analysis.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Nice if we could keep this going for the rest of the month.

I'm looking forward to the first Atlantic storm to blow the cobwebs away.....

I'm in no doubt we're pay dearly for this fine spell,  we always do regardless of what season we're in our weather seems to do that.

Do we know what hurricane/tropical remains this low pressure would be?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.gif

That's an impressive looking scandi high.

10 weeks too early

Hopefully this will push on through and shakes up a bit 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

You have to say outstanding gfs run  for most of england

mean well above average all run London

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

many keep pressure high for Southern England all or most September

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

and becoming very warm at times in the September sunshine

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/168h.htm

little early for me wet and windy weather Id much rather go into cold and miss that bit in the middle but then thats just me.

Perfect timing. The start of a repeating pattern   

Still looking for signs of changes in the output. There are a few small but subtle signs this morning. My model analysis this morning can be found on my website in the below link.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

The blocking high appears stronger with each new run, with the usual tendency for any notable shift to be put back beyond the higher-res 0-192h range of the GFS model.

For a few runs now ECM hasn't produced much in the way of a breakdown, as the jet remains split well west of the UK, the southern arm then heading underneath the blocking near the UK while the northern arm is steered up towards the Arctic thanks to the trough complex around Greenland... though there are now signs that the trough may start to back towards Canada starting about a week from now.

If that happens, blocking to the NW becomes more of a possibility. This is the same shift that cold-seekers kept looking out for last winter, but despite the models coming up with it on numerous occasions at the longer range, it never verified. Will things be different this time around? Only time can tell.

At least the Atlantic Rossby wave length (distance covered by the main trough-ridge combo in the Atlantic) is shorter for the forseeable than it was last winter - hence we're dry and settled rather than at the soggy end of an Atlantic storm train.

The Ensemble mean 10 day chart keeps things looking quite settled with nothing more than a weak trough suggested just to the West and SW. With the High pressure block remaining in NE Europe and a large Azores High just West of it's native ground I can't see much of a suggestion of a strong breakdown coming up in the next 10 days at least from ECM.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

High Pressure For How Long?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Signs of a breakdown later next week, but highly uncertain as always in a pattern change.

I'm sure the pattern will be repeated in January, just after Putin switches off the gas

It's struck me that high pressure over Scandiavia has been quite a dominant feature in the past few months. Looking back over the surface charts since beginning of June the following periods have seen high pressure in that area as the prevailing feature:

15-28 June

7-28 July

end Aug onwards

For me it would be very interesting to see if this is current setup is replaced by predominantly low pressure during the latter part of Sept and Oct before re-appearing in Nov. Just a gut feel but personally I wouldnt be surprised at all  

Current synoptics suggest that many areas may well have a completely dry September.
That would be interesting