Good morning folks. How are the models shaping up this morning. You can find out how I see things here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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Thanks Gibby.Looks like we are replacing our 7 days of gloom with wet and windy westerlies up here!

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I actually think it will be a marked improvement for out locations. Bright and breezy with some showers is probably more accurate than wet and windy? The air mass may actually be cooler but in reality here at least it will feel warmer and much more pleasant. The cold front has cleared the air here and it is already brighter than in has been in days.

The outlook seems to be predominantly southwesterly, more akin to the climatic norm and to be honest here in the NE I welcome it.

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Yes, I'm with Michael, it will be better than the week gone by - we've had less than one hour of sunshine and temps stuck at 14-15c all week. Some traditional westerly fare is welcome!

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Yes guys you are probably right. It will feel better for us eastcoasters!

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Summer continues for here. Hopefully it'll last til Spring.

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Or better still next summer? 

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I would wait a couple more days before trying to forecast the end of next week. Two days ago there was good model agreement for a more general breakdown thursday 25th onwards. At present they have flipped to a more settled pattern apart from the far north. Today the GEM model is going for more unsettled again. I would not be surprised to see that more general breakdown shown more widely come monday. Who Knows?

Probably be a repeat of 2010 and miss Autumn and jump straight to Winter

Oh well

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014092012/UW96-21.GIF

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2014092012/gfs-0-96.png

 

Quite some disparity between UKMO and GFS even at just 4 days range! It apepars to be due to GFS having a flatter jet which drives energy east all the way to the trough over Scandinavia by that day. UKMO doesn't model that, and nor does ECM. GEM sits at halfway house on that one but JMA sides with GFS.

 

That's a bit of an issue to have at such short range, as it determines to what extent HP influences the UK days 5-8. GFS brings LP closest to the NE of the UK on day 6, with JMA having a trough similarly placed but weaker with more of the trough development occuring in the mid-Atlantic instead.

GEM develops a SW-NE jet orientation similar to UKMO, but neither can compare with this extraordinary setup from ECM:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

...though it has to be said that UKMO is very close:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014092012/UW144-21.GIF

The ridge shown across the UK is truly vast, particularly in the case of the ECM run, which also manages to keep the ridge weak enough to resemble a massive region of nothing much at all synoptically. The chart almost seems to be beyond what I would have thought possible!

Interestingly enough, GEM isn't that far away from UKMO and ECM despite having a flatter jet at day 4:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014092012/gem-0-144.png

 

This suggests a strong chance of seeing the SW-NE jet evolve soon enough to keep the storms well NW of the UK. Trouble is, JMA sticks close to GFS right out to day 8, and those two models in combination can't be discounted - so there remains a fair chance of more unsettled conditions influencing the NW at least, with JMA even bringing the middle swathe of the UK into the line of fire at the end of the run.

 

GFS keeps the bulk of England and Wales more or less dry right through to 6th October. Some spots would end up on a run of 37 dry consecutive days (when ignoring dew, mist and fog deposits) if that verified! 

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.htm

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