And it's affect on the jetstream that gave us such a mild winter. Hopefully more of the same but without so much rainfall, for obvious reasons. 

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As I mentioned last week the expectation of a more widespread snow cover developing across Siberia is now happening and the forecast is for more over the next week so I expect that white to become even more widespread. 

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We're certainly doing very well for so early in the season...

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Damn right. Still feels like mid summer 

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Only for a few more day's.

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aye, although nothing too chilly. Tentative signs of a feel of last winter. The mild temps were amazing, although the amount of rain would be unwelcome 

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Agree, Because we have had low 20's still the fact in the SE for example we may drop down to mid teens people will say that's cold, but it's not really. Mid teens in March with some sun and people would be getting the shorts out.... its all in the mind

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Some guy over on Wunderground posted that the current Pacific SST anomaly pattern - in particular the large positive anomaly in the NE Pacific and to a lesser extent up the west U.S. Coast - favours a long wave pattern that should produce a strong build up of Siberian snow area in October, and a negative AO this winter.

It's a nice idea, but I'm not sure how well the science supports it.

There was also a list of winters with an El Nino developed or developing, and their mean AO values. Curiously, though a real mix of +ve and negative values were in evidence, the negative values tended to be larger than the positive ones - for example the record breaking -ve AO of 2009/2010.

Trouble is, no two El Nino events are entirely alike.

Having said that, the 2009/10 one was more of an 'El Nino Modoki' with anomalies focused in the central Pacific rather than eastern, and that appears to be what's trying to unfold this winter. The main difference is in timing.

 

All interesting speculation... but not a lot more than that at this stage, to be honest!

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So a cold winter it is then.

Hi everyone. This is my first post

I am a cold weather lover.  I remember the 2010 winter fondly (although the 2009/2010 wasnt bad either)

 

The heavy snowfall in nov/dec was just perfect not just in the amount given but also the timing of the whole snow. It was amazing. 

 

Hoping for the same this year. 

Not sure how old you are but the chances of another Nov/Dec 2010 are unlikely. But it's not impossible. I'm 64 and there hasn't been many times when cold and snow of that magnitude arrived that early.

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Hi there.

Fair enough but a guy can dream cant he? :)

 

I am in my early 20's

 

Before the 2010 winter, was it clear it was going to be a very cold winter?

I'm not too sure, I think Gavin P may know the answer to that 

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I'm clearly not Gavin, but i recall the Met Office 15-30 day forecast was very confident in a shift to very cold weather. I can't remember what their seasonal forecasting models predicted though.

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The answer is undoubtedly a resounding no. There has never been any season that has been clearly going to be anything in advance. No one has ever had a clue what any season is going to bring before it actually happens. 

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+1 to that. There was no indication coming forward of what happened - if there had been then we wouold still be hearing about it. The MET's infamous 'BBQ' summer still echoes around - imagine if they'd called - 'worst winter month for 100 years' etc.

As yet there is NO predictive capacity for seasons. Up to 72 hours we've got very good, it gets hairier up to 7-10 days and after that you might as well throw darts at pictures of weather types on the wall to see where we are heading...

Gradual cool down in Yakutsk Siberia:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/14-day-weather-trend/russia/sakha/yakutsk 

Tell me - Why does it need to cool down there for us to have a decent cold spell? Is this due to an easterly wind brining in colder air?

Novosibirsk?:

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Novosibirsk+Russia+RSXX0077 

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Agreed

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A one in six chance means that it is 5/1 against it occurring; a one in three chance represents odds of 2/1; and a one in two chance means there is an even chance of it happening.

If you want proof, offer someone 2/1 about rolling 1,2 or 3 with a die and see how long your bank lasts.

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No argument that the chance of rolling a one on a six-sided die is one in six. That's obvious.
But that represents odds of 5/1. You can call it a 1:6 chance or a 5/1 chance. It means the same thing. But if you call it a 6/1 chance (as Essan did), then you're talking about a 1:7 chance.

Say we bet on the roll of a die. You say the number one will come up. I offer you odds of 5/1. You bet £1 each time. We roll the die 6 times. On average the number one will come up once out of those 6 rolls. Agree?

So after the roll when the number one appears I give you your winnings of £5 (odds of 5/1), but following each of the other five rolls you give me your losing stake of £1. Which means after 6 rolls we're both exactly where we started.

But if I'd offered you 6/1, then I would have had to give you £6 after your winning roll, but would have received only 5x£1 after your losing rolls.

Hence the correct odds are 5/1 for a 1:6 chance.

Mathematically a probabilty of x:y represents odds of (y-x)/x.

For example, odds of 11/8 represent a probability of 8:19, or approximately 42%.

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Thanks for steering the debate away from this thread GTW 

I let it run for a few posts because it has some relevance when it comes to visualising what the pundits are up to when they give the odds for a white Christmas, but as you say, a long-winded debate would upset the thread.

 

Back to winter weather prospects and discussion - with some fantasising if need be! 

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This is correct.

6/1 can be calculated as 1 / (6 + 1)  = 0.142

5/1 can be calculated as 1 / (5 + 1) = 0.166

The odds of rolling any 1 number on a 6 sided dice are:
1/6 = 0.166 

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I bet on last winter being a cold one, then got half my stake back because it refused to leave the stalls

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what are the odds on someone mentioning sudden stratospheric warming (ssw) before 1st december.......odds on i'd say!

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http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/04/first-snow-reykjavik 

Snow in Reykyavik last night - getting ever closer.

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