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Matty H
10 October 2014 07:10:52


Snow slowly moving west 



Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


only a mere 3500 miles to go 


turbotubbs
10 October 2014 08:22:07



There is an element of 'in my back yard' to December 2010, despite the widespread nature of the cold and snow.


IMBY the snow amounts were really not that much, half a foot at most, and that peak depth only survived one afternoon before some sleety rain compacted it into ice. If anything, January 2010 delivered better on that front, as did February 2009.


The cold itself was impressive though, with numerous minimums of -5 to -10*C, which had not been experienced before and hasn't been repeated since.


The main issue was that the precipitation mostly came from Channel lows that pulled in just a bit too much milder low-level air from the Channel without enough cold air to combat it. I was surprised in a bad way by this, given that Channel lows have been responsible for some of the South's most legendary snowstorms. I think the problem was that the main thrust of the cold arrived from the north, with no long-fetch flow of cold air from the continent - instead cold air was dragged in from the North Sea, where it had been sitting for a day or two, and had therefore seen a fair bit of moderation, particularly at the low levels. It wasn't enough to counter the Channel air and keep the snow falling.


 


So for residents in the far South, en epic snowstorm is still a long time coming - the last arguably being in early 1991 based on various accounts I've read over the years.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm 40 miles from the south coast and December 2010 was cold and snowy but more notable for the cold than the snow.


5/6 January 2010, on the other hand was epic - the best snow depths I've seen in my location, with 10 inches of level snow on the road outside and easily a foot in favoured spots. And it was then followed by a few days of cold sunny weather that preserved the snow beautifully.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I think Jan 2010 was the one time I have seen my location under a red 'take action' METO warning for snow. In the event it favoured you more than me (I'm in Warminster) but you are right - this was probably the better event for snow depths for our part of the world. Dec 2010 was epically cold - some snow from November stayed on the ground in sheltered spots for two weeks, and then the two snows of about the 17th and then the 21st were good, and lasted until the break down at the end of the month. The 21st brought an unexpected top up to the fall of the saturday. I went for an epic run in the snowy woods near Longleat and saw virtually no-one for 9 miles. Magic.

Stormchaser
10 October 2014 08:47:45

I've gained the impression that the OPI measures how well the polar vortex is organising, with negative numbers indicating a struggling vortex, or at least a weaker one than would usually be expected at the time of year.


An unusually weak, disorganised vortex will be more vulnerable to the impacts of stratospheric forcing such as wave breaking and warming events than a strong, organised vortex such as we saw last winter.


 


How's that for a summary or have I missed something? smile


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
some faraway beach
10 October 2014 09:16:14
Sounds reasonable, with the logical advantage that October would be the right sort of time to take these measurements for winter on the basis of the number of weeks it seems to take for effects to propagate into the stratosphere and then affect the lower levels of the atmosphere.

My only objection to the OPI is a gut one from having spent so much time looking for these kinds of indices and systems in other fields: devising a system by choosing your factors such as to produce accurate results in the past is almost invariably a recipe for disappointment going forward; and the perpetual weather problem of having so few years of previous results on which to work.

On the other hand, I do like the explanations provided by Murr et al. at The Other Place, and by yourself above, for why this index makes physical sense, and why it very occasionally does not work, and I'm definitely enjoying the sense of excitement and anticipation as the experiment unfolds
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
JoeShmoe99
10 October 2014 09:23:25

I think all thats been suggested is the correlation between the OPI and the AO. Im sure there are plenty of winters where theres a mean -ve AO and it hasnt been cold and vice versa


Indeed look at last years +OPI. We had a mild and wet winter yet the US had deep cold due primarily i think to the ridge in the Pacifi so while an interesting guide im sure it has to be factored in alongside other indices

nsrobins
10 October 2014 09:48:22

And to be fair to all parties here is the Exacta Weather forecast from Mr Madden in full:
(public domain youtube link)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF4mbX6IOLg&list=PL5714219B98CCDB27


A quick skim and two observations:
The charts comparing ssts to apparently show the Gulf Stream deviation are useless - the first chart has no scale or key to compare.
The presistance with sunspot numbers is misleading. We are pretty much just passing max of Cycle24 and are on the money with predicted values:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif


 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Solar Cycles
10 October 2014 10:19:17


And to be fair to all parties here is the Exacta Weather forecast from Mr Madden in full:
(public domain youtube link)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF4mbX6IOLg&list=PL5714219B98CCDB27


A quick skim and two observations
The charts comparing ssts to apparently show the Gulf Stream deviation are useless - the first chart has no scale or key to compare.
The presistance with sunspot numbers is misleading. We are pretty much just passing max of Cycle24 and are on the money with predicted values:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Do you think he's read a few articles on solar output and  stitched together a disjointed analysis of what may happen, surely not! 😃

some faraway beach
10 October 2014 10:30:43


I think all thats been suggested is the correlation between the OPI and the AO. Im sure there are plenty of winters where theres a mean -ve AO and it hasnt been cold and vice versa


Indeed look at last years +OPI. We had a mild and wet winter yet the US had deep cold due primarily i think to the ridge in the Pacifi so while an interesting guide im sure it has to be factored in alongside other indices


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


Sure. But something which tells us whether conditions are likely to be conducive for weather significantly different from the usual fare is really all we can ask for. It would still be a leap forward if it does turn out to be a reliable index.


The fact that it is not an attempt at a seasonal weather forecast could be why its devisers may have come up with something credible and useful.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
NDJF
10 October 2014 11:46:11

have posted this link a few weeks back and after a short mild spell looks like this part of Canada is dipping into the freezer for the foreseeable.


In the sun today feels very much like late summer, will we see a repeat of 09/10 & dec 10 this year?? (HOPE SO!)


 


http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

Gooner
10 October 2014 16:16:02



Snow slowly moving west 



Originally Posted by: Matty H 


only a mere 3500 miles to go 


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


And means nothing in the middle of October IMO


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nickl
10 October 2014 16:16:44


And to be fair to all parties here is the Exacta Weather forecast from Mr Madden in full:
(public domain youtube link)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF4mbX6IOLg&list=PL5714219B98CCDB27


A quick skim and two observations:
The charts comparing ssts to apparently show the Gulf Stream deviation are useless - the first chart has no scale or key to compare.
The presistance with sunspot numbers is misleading. We are pretty much just passing max of Cycle24 and are on the money with predicted values:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


hold the front page ! madden forecasts freezing cold snowy winter !  just like he did last winter then ?  he will get lucky at some point. lets hope its this time. 

nickl
10 October 2014 16:19:40




Snow slowly moving west 


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


only a mere 3500 miles to go 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


And means nothing in the middle of October IMO


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


actually matty - the westward growth of snowcover during october is significant wrt to cohen's theory.   last year we had good cover by october but no great growth during october. i think this month will see decent westward expansion as the vortex settles nw siberia.  another piece of the winter jigsaw that might be falling in the right place this season?

Rob K
10 October 2014 17:23:55
The Express, surprise surprise, are going for the coldest winter for a century.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November 

Winter 2013, of course, was going to be the "coldest winter in modern times"...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week 


I would have put this in the media thread, but it hasn't been active for a month!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Matty H
10 October 2014 17:28:03





Snow slowly moving west 


 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


only a mere 3500 miles to go 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


And means nothing in the middle of October IMO


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


actually matty - the westward growth of snowcover during october is significant wrt to cohen's theory.   last year we had good cover by october but no great growth during october. i think this month will see decent westward expansion as the vortex settles nw siberia.  another piece of the winter jigsaw that might be falling in the right place this season?


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


Twas Gooner that said it means nothing. 


My own opinion is we don't know what of countless things need to come together to benefit us in terms of winter snow. If we did then accurate forecasting beyond a week or two wouldn't be a pipe dream 


nickl
10 October 2014 17:44:07






Snow slowly moving west 


 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


only a mere 3500 miles to go 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


And means nothing in the middle of October IMO


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


actually matty - the westward growth of snowcover during october is significant wrt to cohen's theory.   last year we had good cover by october but no great growth during october. i think this month will see decent westward expansion as the vortex settles nw siberia.  another piece of the winter jigsaw that might be falling in the right place this season?


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Twas Gooner that said it means nothing. 


My own opinion is we don't know what of countless things need to come together to benefit us in terms of winter snow. If we did then accurate forecasting beyond a week or two wouldn't be a pipe dream 


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


good point matty - marcus, it does mean something, even if that something is as bland as the map looking more white !

Matty H
10 October 2014 17:46:04

The first person who designs an algorithm that can correctly forecast weather for season in any given location is made for life. So many variables around the entire planet influencing everything to some degree. 


Quantum
10 October 2014 17:46:54

The Express, surprise surprise, are going for the coldest winter for a century.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Winter 2013, of course, was going to be the "coldest winter in modern times"...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week


I would have put this in the media thread, but it hasn't been active for a month!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


"James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said..."


Stopped reading there. 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
10 October 2014 17:50:10

Apologies


I should say, doesn't give us any clue about the winter that is to arrive


 


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
10 October 2014 17:52:11


The Express, surprise surprise, are going for the coldest winter for a century.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Winter 2013, of course, was going to be the "coldest winter in modern times"...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week


I would have put this in the media thread, but it hasn't been active for a month!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


"James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said..."


Stopped reading there. 


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Lol, what I want to know is he the chief forecaster.

Quantum
10 October 2014 17:52:51

Actually if it is a below average winter (which seems more likely than not based on the signs) the baboons at the daily express will have a field day. I really only have two sections in my brain, one is devoted to loving snow, and the other hating psedoscience so this is really annoying me. Screw it, lets have a mild winter and humiliate these amateurs for the 2nd year in a row. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
10 October 2014 17:54:56


Actually if it is a below average winter (which seems more likely than not based on the signs) the baboons at the daily express will have a field day. I really only have two sections in my brain, one is devoted to loving snow, and the other hating psedoscience so this is really annoying me. Screw it, lets have a mild winter and humiliate these amateurs for the 2nd year in a row. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Don't be so silly


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Matty H
10 October 2014 17:57:27


The Express, surprise surprise, are going for the coldest winter for a century.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Winter 2013, of course, was going to be the "coldest winter in modern times"...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week


I would have put this in the media thread, but it hasn't been active for a month!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


"James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said..."


Stopped reading there. 


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Quantum
10 October 2014 17:59:23



Actually if it is a below average winter (which seems more likely than not based on the signs) the baboons at the daily express will have a field day. I really only have two sections in my brain, one is devoted to loving snow, and the other hating psedoscience so this is really annoying me. Screw it, lets have a mild winter and humiliate these amateurs for the 2nd year in a row. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Don't be so silly


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Its a toss up between lots of snow and an insufferable Nathan Rao. The only reason I'm glad 2012 was bad for sea ice is because it ruined several bloggers day. I'm still waiting for the 100 days of snow. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
10 October 2014 18:03:17

Lol, what I want to know is he the chief forecaster.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


He is chief forecaster, junior forecaster, webmaster and tea boy all in one. It's not a big operation....


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
NDJF
10 October 2014 19:23:49
what credence do we afford other agencies referenced, Netweather and Weather Online who are going for a cold December and blocking.

Agree with all said regards The Express but who on here would love it to be spot on accuracte.

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