It depends if you tap into a hot air source that is.

25c+ can't be archived on its own at this time of year.

Perhaps the 5th?

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Staying very dry into October

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

No real sign of change within the next 7-10 days.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140923/12/ecmt850.216.png

ECM's been thinking of the same time of year in 2011...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2011/Rrea00120111001.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2011/Rrea00220111001.gif

Striking similarities, really. The HP is being modelled as a stronger feature this time, though.

UKMO seems to be the only other model heading along the right lines for such an extreme version of events. GFS manages a prolonged affair that takes until a week into October to break down, but it lacks the intensity that ECM has produced.

JMA gives the high pressure a bit of trouble as the jet is particularly strong on the model's 12z op run. The way that the various disturbances phase into one very deep system is something GFS has trended away from over the past few runs.

GEM develops a small tropical system on day 4 to the SE of the Azores, which has no support from the other models. This causes the ridge this weekend to nose further north than would otherwise occur, resulting in a HP cell to our NE rather than E. That's more like what ECM was showing until yesterday. GEM then goes mad with the Atlantic jet... it ain't pretty.

Overall, ECM and UKMO are standing firm with the idea of strong HP influence leading to something exceptionally warm that gradually destabilises, GFS has trended towards them, JMA has stuck with a stronger Atlantic influence that keeps the NW more changeable, and GEM... has been very much in character.

I'm rooting for that ECM 12z op run, as I greatly enjoy such extremes in Autumn.

Would that be high temps for the time of year but with mist & fog? giving it that muggy damp feel?

Quite a complex set of output this morning especially longer term but here's how I see it in my regular morning model analysis.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 great morning forecast GIBBY,   nice to see this settled spell last but me  im ready for change,    thanks

I understand you're talking in general terms, but from the synoptic point of view the situation to our west out in the Atlantic couldn't really be any more different today from how it looked 12 months ago:

2013:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=24&month=9&year=2013&hour=12&map=1&mode=0

2014:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

For what it's worth it looks a little like 2009 imo:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=24&month=9&year=2009&hour=12&map=1&mode=0

Seeking an explanation for the sudden drop of the high pressure cell over Europe beyond this weekend, it appears that the intensity of the mid-Atlantic trough has been upgraded to the point that it drives warm air advection (WAA) on the eastern flank due north instead of northeast.

This then allows the new ridge from the SW to build to our NE rather than E or SE, which means that although we stay on the warm side of things until a few days into October, there isn't anything exceptional to be experienced.

It's a mighty shame if you like that sort of thing such as I do, but there's nothing that can be done other than accept the nature of rare events I'm afraid!

Longer term, the signs are there that the blocking pattern might only manage to shift as far as western Russia before locking in again, which produces a setup very much like we had from mid-December through to mid-February last year.

There's even a suggestion of East-U.S. trough action unfolding - in which, case, brace yourselves for a wild ride at the mercy of the Atlantic train... not remotely set in stone of course, but something to keep an eye on for sure.

gfs opp has that a little wrong as we entre low resolution me thinks.

X http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0&carte=1

mean has other members on its side frankly 15 uppers in September and 564 into england into england thursday thats a long way north for late September.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

><http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=228&code=21&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/isotherme-0/30h.htm

Good morning folks. Here's my look at the 00zs this morning.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm 

Just to complete this morning's look at the 00zs. It's steady as a rock from the ECM 10 Day Mean today as the UK remains bathed in warm moist air from the SW with a High pressure belt to the South and Low pressure and the Jet Stream held well North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Is it wrong to moan about being bored of this weather?

Is it wrong to moan about being bored of this weather?

Originally Posted by: idj20 

This time last year I would have said the same thing as you, but that horror show that was last Autumn & Winter had completely changed my perceptions of our weather. The longer this settled spell eats into Autumn proper, the better.

And thus with that to mind, this morning's output runs did make me feel all nice and safe and calm.

Originally Posted by: turbotubbs 

Are you sure the weather is the right hobby for you Ian LOL

Have to agree about the settled spell, as much as i love cold and snow I'm enjoying Autumn currently and it will make it feel a shorter spell till March :D