Good morning folks. Some rather interesting GFS Ensemble thoughts are the highlight of this morning's 00z output. My analysis can be read here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

You got that arse backwards!  And the current weather is great! Not boring. better year the TS's. Hope it carries on till next summer.

I agree - the current run of weather is phenomenal and interesting in its own right, because of the lack of wind and rain.

It must be one of the driest Septembers on record overall.

However, like Beast I want a brutal winter, but not to make up for the present period, but to atone for the rubbish 2013-14 so called winter!

Just thinking about clearing the cobwebs and flexing my metatarsals in preparation for the oncoming silly season.

From trends there does seem to be a signal for height rises across Greenland linking to N Scandinavia late week 2 which could easily herald an early taste of winter chill for parts mid-October.

Beyond that try reading tealeaves as after last year's debacle I've given-up on long-term shenanigans.

A pool of -5 to -7*C uppers edges westward across Scandinavia on the ECM 12z op run days 8-10... is it having a trial run for those infamous winter teasers? 

It arises due to the jet digging down on the eastern flank of the blocking high to our NE. Just the sort of thing ECM tends to get carried away with, hence the aforementioned teasers in winter.

GFS keeps a flatter flow over there, keeping the cold air from spilling down and allowing the block to orientate such as to keep a flow of warm air to our shores - but an often unstable one as Atlantic low pressure moves close to our shores.

UKMO has once again produced more of a mid-Atlantic trough in the jet days 5-6, which means the HP to the east strengthens rather than giving way to a new ridge from the west. It's basically a way of sustaining the warmth from the weekend and potentially building on it further.

I should make clear that when I say 'warmth' I'm talking about the diurnal means (day + night temps combined) and how they relate to the long term average. That could mean something like 8-10*C by night and 22-24*C by day, or 14-15*C by night and 16-19*C by day, or somewhere in between... it all depends on cloud amounts.

So long as the blocking persists, there is the potential for it to either keep us high and dry for another fortnight, or place us at the mercy of stalled weather fronts and bucket-loads of rain, should the blocking position a bit too far east to keep the storms away.

Unless the jet weakens, allowing for occasional sliding lows crossing the UK, there isn't much room for something in between.

We haven't had a drought for a while

You mean the Express?

Well, this year is finally going to be the year when they get it right

I normally like to pretend that they're my own works. It gives me a smug feeling.

Still looking warm for a while yet with gfs dragging in some high uppers. Not sure how settled it will be though especially the further west you are.

The local gamekeeper can't wait for rain a nd cold winds to start, to drive all his pheasants back from the fields where they are happily foraging, down to his feeders so he can gather them up in one place, the better to have them shot

Lower-res on the GFS 12z op run (from +192 hours onward) seems to fail to resolve the trough in the jet west of Iberia - it just vanishes, resulting in a vague, unrealistic mess.

I'm thinking runs like the 00z and 06z GFS op runs, which developed low pressure west of Iberia, are more likely to be near to the mark - with a strong ridge off the East U.S. Coast throwing cold air down into the central North-Atlantic in a week's time, instability and storm development around the Azores seems a likely consequence.

Given the time of year, I reckon one of the most likely ways out of this sort of pattern is a flattening of the jet stream path across the U.S. and into the Atlantic, followed by marked trough development over the Eastern U.S. or thereabouts, building a ridge in the central North Atlantic.

If and when we'll see that is anybody's guess.