The models are looking very September-October 1985...

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Which was followed by a good winter - snow in November , a mild Dec but snow in Jan and a severe cold Feb

Originally Posted by: sriram 

If I had a tenner for every time I read posts identical to this every single autumn on here

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

very true.  The weather does not follow set patterns that repeat.  If it did, this hobby would be far less fascinating.

Good morning folks. A new day but any changes in the models. Here's today model review.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Looks like the angle of the jet next week will favour a Scandi High over a European one, with the potential for an initially warm flow from the continent to be replaced by an increasingly chilly one.

The tounge of cold that ECM drags through NE Europe on the 00z op run days 7-10 is impressive for the first week of October.

While this is unfolding, events over the U.S. look to displace a strong HP cell from Canada into the western North Atlantic, which brings a corresponding eastward shift in the position of the North Atlantic trough, putting pressure on the blocking to our NE, which should at some point give way - but probably not without putting up a fight.

GFS6z run is one for the scrapbook! Amazing if this developed!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Hi Brian, just wondering if we're good for posting images of charts from the TWO viewer?

For now, I'll go with a link here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_240_mslp850.png?cb=651

That shows the LP dropping to the SW of the UK that I thought the models would trend toward this morning. While the 00z runs didn't do so, this 06z run shows that the option still remains in play.

The 12z runs will make for interesting viewing in that respect 

I'm happy for them to be posted, but would suggest like most things they're best used in moderation. I think it also makes the thread more readable if they're scaled when posted like I've done, and it should be at the admin/mods discretion to delete them if they're overused etc.  

Edit: Slightly off at a tangent but I'm getting a brand new 8 core dedicated physical server in the next couple of weeks solely for data processing and chart generation. Should be a lot of new stuff appearing on TWO later this autumn and all free of course.

That is quite something! 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014092612/gfs-0-162.png?12in  around 6/7 days time! Bring it on! :)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I like a bit of stuffed pheasant , not so keen on the stuffed gamekeeper 

Originally Posted by: Osprey 

I've never eaten Pheasent!

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Tastes like chicken

Would certainly get things off to a good start in terms of snow cover to the north-east...

I can't think of a year that went straight from late summer-like warm and dry to wintry setups, missing out the autumn storms part altogether.
It does feel like a very continental style autumn so who knows.

1985? 1978? I suppose 2010 to some degree?

Even if the 6z came off, who's to say that, a couple weeks into October we get a return to zonal dross with autumn storms that lasts through to Xmas.

Yes thats usually the way although I don't recall seeing this type of weather for end of September usally leading up to the equinox the weather would alway change to Atlantic flow and October would be a wet month with the last of  warm spells thrown in here and there

Wohoo! Colour in the MOD thread! 

The models are showing strong signs that the blocking will hold fast against the Atlantic trough activity, and in fact the jet may try a good old undercut 7-10 days from now:

Impressive to see blocking having so much control at this time of year. The fact that it's mid-latitude blocking makes it all the more fascinating for me 

Though GFS has an extra disturbance near the Azores from day 6, it ends up in a similar place to the ECM trough for day 8:

The jet's a little close for comfort days 7-8 on the GFS 18z op run... yet the following few days sees better alignment of LP development to the SW compared to the 12z op run if it's a plume of warmth you're looking for:

Posting these charts is going to be very entertaining if we get some decent output this winter - though I anticipate having to do a bit of cleaning up at times if we get some truly exciting output to goggle at 

Good morning folks. Here's my Sunday attempt at looking at the most recent output from the models covering the coming two weeks.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

6z ensembles for the UK show a trend to more unsettled conditions from 4th October onwards, with temps lowering to more average levels eventually. No doubt if it pulls off it will feel more "seasonal"

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Looks like turning more unsettled and cooler by the weekend.