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roger63
11 October 2014 10:10:17



Review of winter 2014/5 indicators.Updated.


There is little change to the indicators set out at the end of August.My conclusion reviewing the September data is that overall a warmer than average winter is indicated.


1.ENSO.


Latest diagnostic discussion from NOAA suggests a weak El Nino in range 0.5-0.9."Weak El Nino is expected to begin in 1 to 2 months time and last into the Spring".Overall El Nino's tend to be followed by warmer than average winters with the link getting stronger for the higher El Nino levels.Weak El Ninos return 50.50 for the following winter.


On balance I would say the ENSO signal points to a warmer than average winter.


2.QBO


Last year had a very long and very strong +ve QBO and was followed by a strong +veNAO and warm winter.However the record of the link  between QBO and winter CET is patchy.For what its worth the QBO is now in negative phase (-23) which points to below average winter temps.


3.SST's


I always find the pattern (May/June) difficult to interpret but  back in May there didn't seem to be the clear tripole which links to NAO-ve winters.Latest forecast for SST's  for DJF has negative anomalies in the central Atlantic to the west of the UK.What is this likely indicate in terms of pressure patterns? My own verdict is that the spring  SST's favour a warmer than average winter.


4.Sunspots


The solar cycle peaked in Feb 2014 at 102.6 and is now falling away slowly down to at 87.6 in September.The only real verifiable link to lower than average CET is around  the solar minimum(University of Reading studies).So little influence likely at this stage of the solar cycle.


5.Model predictions


Meto Glosea contingency probability indicators shows the following for the 3 month Dec,Jan,Feb.


Temperature.20% probability of below average temp 60-80% of above average.


Rainfall:Close to avaerage.


Pressure:Above normal 20% probability,below normal 40-60 % probability ie favouring a +ve NAO.


CFS currently shows average temperature and pressure over the UK


6.Seasonal predictors


Spring 2014 was a Very Warm wet season and summer is likely to finish overall very warm and dry Autumn is shaping up to be warmer than average.Both of these types tend to be followed by warmer than average winters.Autumn type to early to call.


OVERALL PREDICTION


A repeat  of last month ie winter 2014/15 is likely to be warmer than average.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Overall your logic is flawed as a weak nino is more conducive  of a cold blocked pattern when coupled with a negative QBO, the SST's are a waste of space hence why the MetO dumped them a few years ago having been embarrassed one time too many after utilising them for their LRF. As for the GLOSEA model this time last year it was showing HLB, so again this model should be discounted at this range. 


Overall prediction, haven't the foggiest as the weather will do just what it wants to do, as always.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Thanks Solar Cycles. Wasn't aware of the weak Nino/negative cold blocking link.How strong is the correlation?Agree with your SST comment.Accept that GLOSEA model can change in next couple of month but if anything it has shifted  slightly more to warm in the last month.

tallyho_83
12 October 2014 00:03:34
Gradual cool down for Yakutsk:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/14-day-weather-trend/russia/sakha/yakutsk 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
12 October 2014 00:10:43
Interesting:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess= 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
12 October 2014 00:15:06
Ironic - despite the fact that next week it's meant to turn milder and wetter! But it is the Express of course!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


KevBrads1
12 October 2014 07:31:21

The last sub 2C CET February was 1991.


You got to fancy that a notably cold February is around the corner. December, January and March have all returned such months. December and March have returned exceptional values or contained periods of exceptionalness.


So perhaps an exceptional January or February in terms of coldness is around the corner

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
sizzle
12 October 2014 08:41:37

weather online


*November*
High pressure is expected to be dominant early in the month. This will be bringing dry and frosty weather to start the month, and it may be foggy too.
The area of high pressure will be collapsing as a jet stream becomes established over the country. That then brings far more unsettled conditions for the middle to latter stages of the month.
There could be strong winds with gales at times, and the risk of heavy rain. Temperatures will be near normal.

*December*
Higher pressure tending to be building in the Atlantic west of Ireland in December. This brings a colder, northwesterly flow. With low pressure passing eastwards, there will be bands of rain, sleet and snow.
It is likely that higher pressure is a feature of the weather in the second half of the month, with cold and frosty conditions as well as fog.



 

Solar Cycles
12 October 2014 10:22:57




Review of winter 2014/5 indicators.Updated.


There is little change to the indicators set out at the end of August.My conclusion reviewing the September data is that overall a warmer than average winter is indicated.


1.ENSO.


Latest diagnostic discussion from NOAA suggests a weak El Nino in range 0.5-0.9."Weak El Nino is expected to begin in 1 to 2 months time and last into the Spring".Overall El Nino's tend to be followed by warmer than average winters with the link getting stronger for the higher El Nino levels.Weak El Ninos return 50.50 for the following winter.


On balance I would say the ENSO signal points to a warmer than average winter.


2.QBO


Last year had a very long and very strong +ve QBO and was followed by a strong +veNAO and warm winter.However the record of the link  between QBO and winter CET is patchy.For what its worth the QBO is now in negative phase (-23) which points to below average winter temps.


3.SST's


I always find the pattern (May/June) difficult to interpret but  back in May there didn't seem to be the clear tripole which links to NAO-ve winters.Latest forecast for SST's  for DJF has negative anomalies in the central Atlantic to the west of the UK.What is this likely indicate in terms of pressure patterns? My own verdict is that the spring  SST's favour a warmer than average winter.


4.Sunspots


The solar cycle peaked in Feb 2014 at 102.6 and is now falling away slowly down to at 87.6 in September.The only real verifiable link to lower than average CET is around  the solar minimum(University of Reading studies).So little influence likely at this stage of the solar cycle.


5.Model predictions


Meto Glosea contingency probability indicators shows the following for the 3 month Dec,Jan,Feb.


Temperature.20% probability of below average temp 60-80% of above average.


Rainfall:Close to avaerage.


Pressure:Above normal 20% probability,below normal 40-60 % probability ie favouring a +ve NAO.


CFS currently shows average temperature and pressure over the UK


6.Seasonal predictors


Spring 2014 was a Very Warm wet season and summer is likely to finish overall very warm and dry Autumn is shaping up to be warmer than average.Both of these types tend to be followed by warmer than average winters.Autumn type to early to call.


OVERALL PREDICTION


A repeat  of last month ie winter 2014/15 is likely to be warmer than average.


Originally Posted by: roger63 

Overall your logic is flawed as a weak nino is more conducive  of a cold blocked pattern when coupled with a negative QBO, the SST's are a waste of space hence why the MetO dumped them a few years ago having been embarrassed one time too many after utilising them for their LRF. As for the GLOSEA model this time last year it was showing HLB, so again this model should be discounted at this range. 


Overall prediction, haven't the foggiest as the weather will do just what it wants to do, as always.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Thanks Solar Cycles. Wasn't aware of the weak Nino/negative cold blocking link.How strong is the correlation?Agree with your SST comment.Accept that GLOSEA model can change in next couple of month but if anything it has shifted  slightly more to warm in the last month.


Originally Posted by: roger63 

Hi Roger, unfortunately the correlation like all these links is weak. I think the next GLOSEA update will prove far more reliable on where we will be heading through the winter months.

Gooner
12 October 2014 15:57:12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101112/run3/cfsnh-0-1800.png?12


Just in time for Xmas day

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
12 October 2014 15:58:50

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101112/run3/cfsnh-0-2058.png?12


And then a cold start to the New Year

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Jonesy
12 October 2014 21:53:26


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101112/run3/cfsnh-0-2058.png?12


And then a cold start to the New Year


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Slight feeling of Déjà vu laughing

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Russwirral
13 October 2014 15:09:40
Netweather's forecast runs along the same thinking ive had for this winter. higher pressure to the north and north west, wetter towards Central and southern europe. Again, ill come back to the thought ive had for a while now and that i posted on here a week or so ago - which is try and spot the pattern in autumn that might prevail through winter. As has been the common theme of most of the recent Autum - winters. With a bit of hindsight looking back in spring the signs are there in winter, with a repetitive pattern of HPs / LPS asserting their influence in very similar positions over and over.

If we take todays synoptics (exc temperature) and dump it into Dec/Jan this would be a very similar scenario to Dec 2010. with bands of precip taking two swipes at the country as they pivot with a HP cell never to far away to the north. Alas its still too warm. However I will be watching for patterns such as this to assert themselves again with a view of seeing if they persist into a period when cold air will be a feature.





Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
13 October 2014 15:48:52

The latest GLOSEA update is available today and my take is it doesn't strongly favour any particular pattern.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
13 October 2014 19:58:24


The latest GLOSEA update is available today and my take is it doesn't strongly favour any particular pattern.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


So an average winter?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


SEMerc
13 October 2014 20:07:40


The latest GLOSEA update is available today and my take is it doesn't strongly favour any particular pattern.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's actually quite worrying because I thought its earlier forecast was for a higher likelihood of a milder than average winter.


I would be much happier if the Met was forecasting a 'blowtorch' winter.

Stormchaser
13 October 2014 22:23:09

After last November's outlook for the winter failed about as hard as it's possible to fail, I do find it hard to take GLOSEA seriously - but to be fair, last winter was caused by a teleconnection between Indonesian rainfall and the jet stream pattern that seemed to make a mockery of most or even all of the models.


 


I have formed an opinion that the models simply can't model enough detail to accurately capture all of the important processes that tend to take place in October and November, be they Asian snow cover advance, vortex disruption by wave breaking in the stratosphere or whatever - and as a consequence, only a late October forecast could be expected to even have a slim chance of falling close to the mark, with a late November forecast having a good deal more potential - though still only a rough guide, given that the chaos of the atmosphere is beyond the capability of computer modeling and may continue to be so indefinitely... depending on what becomes of quantum computing (nothing to do with the so-named TWO member, as far as I know).


 


Just my two cents, as they say across the pond.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gooner
13 October 2014 22:25:52

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101218/run4/cfsnh-0-2298.png?18


Would make amends for last winters trash


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101218/run4/cfsnh-0-2334.png?18


 


Only just around the corner now


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
13 October 2014 22:50:32


After last November's outlook for the winter failed about as hard as it's possible to fail, I do find it hard to take GLOSEA seriously - but to be fair, last winter was caused by a teleconnection between Indonesian rainfall and the jet stream pattern that seemed to make a mockery of most or even all of the models.


 


I have formed an opinion that the models simply can't model enough detail to accurately capture all of the important processes that tend to take place in October and November, be they Asian snow cover advance, vortex disruption by wave breaking in the stratosphere or whatever - and as a consequence, only a late October forecast could be expected to even have a slim chance of falling close to the mark, with a late November forecast having a good deal more potential - though still only a rough guide, given that the chaos of the atmosphere is beyond the capability of computer modeling and may continue to be so indefinitely... depending on what becomes of quantum computing (nothing to do with the so-named TWO member, as far as I know).


 


Just my two cents, as they say across the pond.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Good post. I think the problem isn't just computing power though, its also measurement. The atmosphere is a complex system so chaos theory applies which means to deterministally know the state of the atmosphere in the future we need to know all the initial conditions to infinite precision and I'm sure that is impossible, but we could improve long range forecasting by sending out more buoys with more precise instruments.  

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Medlock Vale Weather
13 October 2014 23:00:50

Quite an increase in the snow distribution over the past couple of days. 


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Russwirral
13 October 2014 23:20:55


Quite an increase in the snow distribution over the past couple of days. 



Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


 


aye  - looks set to continue and enahnce too http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
13 October 2014 23:28:13


Quite an increase in the snow distribution over the past couple of days. 



Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


 


aye  - looks set to continue and enahnce too http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
13 October 2014 23:37:03

purely for speculation and discussion.  Take a look at today's snow cover and last years (to the date)


 


today


http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2014/ims2014286_asiaeurope.gif


 


13th Oct 2013


http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2013/ims2013286_asiaeurope.gif


 


Interesting how this time last year overall about the same snow cover - however at this point last year the Ice cap had already merged into the land mass of Siberia on the eastern side - i would assume this would re-inforce the cold on that side of siberia.  Locking in the cold over that way.


 


Ice is much more evenly distributed at this time this year.  Could this impact on our weather?


 


 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
tallyho_83
14 October 2014 00:24:30

Notice the colder than average temperatures are forecasted for teh N. Atlantic throught Autumn and Winter:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20141001/3up_20141001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

What may this denote weatherwise and how will this have an impact on our weather pattern? A possible blocking?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CreweCold
14 October 2014 01:35:41

RE the Glosea....its October update is about as flat westerly as you can get; it's showing quite a conclusive +NAO throughout the winter months. Here is its pressure forecast....


 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20141001/2cat_20141001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Ally Pally Snowman
14 October 2014 07:45:34

I think we have entered another warm/mild period of weather like the 90s and 00s.. Hot Summers warm Springs and mild wet winters. Hope I'm wrong but I expect another very mild winter with more flooding.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
14 October 2014 07:56:13



The latest GLOSEA update is available today and my take is it doesn't strongly favour any particular pattern.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


So an average winter?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


No strong signal doesn't mean average. If the ensemble has 30 members with 10 mild, 10 cold and 10 average, that is no strong signal but it doesn't mean average is favoured.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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