theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Justin W
14 October 2014 07:59:29


I think we have entered another warm/mild period of weather like the 90s and 00s.. Hot Summers warm Springs and mild wet winters. Hope I'm wrong but I expect another very mild winter with more flooding.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


You'd be slightly deranged to bet against this for winter 2014-15. Hadley shows us that mild and cold winters come in batches with the runs of mild years lasting longer and these only occasionally interrupted by cold winters. Cold winter runs seem to come in groups of three, four or five usually interrupted by a mild winter. Of course 2013/14 could just have been a brief interruption to a cold run and nobody has the foggiest!

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
idj20
14 October 2014 08:13:25


Notice the colder than average temperatures are forecasted for teh N. Atlantic throught Autumn and Winter:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20141001/3up_20141001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

What may this denote weatherwise and how will this have an impact on our weather pattern? A possible blocking?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



I'm not a world class expert when it comes to these cryptic type charts. Hell, I'm not even into long range forecasting but to my aging eyes, that output seem to suggest a high probability (Up to 80% chance) of above average temperatures for the north Atlantic over the winter months (Dec to Feb) and a low probability (20%) of lower than normal temperatures.

My money is on a mild 'n' wet one but hopefully not as active storm-wise as last year.

Folkestone Harbour. 
roger63
14 October 2014 08:25:05


RE the Glosea....its October update is about as flat westerly as you can get; it's showing quite a conclusive +NAO throughout the winter months. Here is its pressure forecast....


 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20141001/2cat_20141001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


The anomalies suggest a deeper than usual Iceland LP and a stronger than normal Azores HP.ie an NAO +ve winter.

Solar Cycles
14 October 2014 09:06:46



RE the Glosea....its October update is about as flat westerly as you can get; it's showing quite a conclusive +NAO throughout the winter months. Here is its pressure forecast....


 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20141001/2cat_20141001_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png


Originally Posted by: roger63 


The anomalies suggest a deeper than usual Iceland LP and a stronger than normal Azores HP.ie an NAO +ve winter.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

Indeed it does, I think a lot of this is down to how they are modelling the upcoming nino. IMO  they are barking up the wrong tree, time will tell of course.

tallyho_83
14 October 2014 09:20:57



Notice the colder than average temperatures are forecasted for teh N. Atlantic throught Autumn and Winter:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20141001/3up_20141001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

What may this denote weatherwise and how will this have an impact on our weather pattern? A possible blocking?


Originally Posted by: idj20 



I'm not a world class expert when it comes to these cryptic type charts. Hell, I'm not even into long range forecasting but to my aging eyes, that output seem to suggest a high probability (Up to 80% chance) of above average temperatures for the north Atlantic over the winter months (Dec to Feb) and a low probability (20%) of lower than normal temperatures.

My money is on a mild 'n' wet one but hopefully not as active storm-wise as last year.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
14 October 2014 09:55:13


 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
14 October 2014 10:10:49



 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Argh!!! So you're saying a deja vu of last year? :-(

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


JOHN NI
14 October 2014 10:12:05
All seems a little premature to be panicing about winter. With respect to the Glosea output - its only one version of the possibilities. It would only take a very slight reorientation - the Azores high ridged a little further north or the Icelandic low troughed a little further south-east and you suddenly would be looking at a much colder prospect - albeit of a maritime source nature. Even allowing for things as they are - deep lows to the northwest can drag in progressively colder air as winter progresses so all isnt lost.
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
Saint Snow
14 October 2014 11:28:08



 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Solar Cycles
14 October 2014 11:50:09




 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I'm far from convinced that the summer ice melt is responsible and it's solar output we should be looking at in this respect.

Brian Gaze
14 October 2014 12:05:03





 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I'm far from convinced that the summer ice melt is responsible and it's solar output we should be looking at in this respect.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


You may have a different opinion, but Saint is right that this has been mentioned as a possibility in recent years. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
14 October 2014 12:19:39






 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I'm far from convinced that the summer ice melt is responsible and it's solar output we should be looking at in this respect.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


You may have a different opinion, but Saint is right that this has been mentioned as a possibility in recent years. 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

So as Solar Ouput Brian.

Medlock Vale Weather
14 October 2014 14:28:12

A bit of snow cover in Kiruna, Northern Sweden http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/kirunakommun/kirunakommun_1.php


 

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
roger63
14 October 2014 16:27:32







 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I'm far from convinced that the summer ice melt is responsible and it's solar output we should be looking at in this respect.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


You may have a different opinion, but Saint is right that this has been mentioned as a possibility in recent years. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

So as Solar Ouput Brian.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


The Reading University work suggests that the years around solar minimum have  a higher probability of blocked ie NAO -ve winters.

Quantum
14 October 2014 16:34:50








 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: roger63 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'm far from convinced that the summer ice melt is responsible and it's solar output we should be looking at in this respect.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


You may have a different opinion, but Saint is right that this has been mentioned as a possibility in recent years. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

So as Solar Ouput Brian.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The Reading University work suggests that the years around solar minimum have  a higher probability of blocked ie NAO -ve winters.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


This is correct but its also worth pointing out that while dips in the SC correspond to colder years, the method fails in the short term, i.e relatively low sun spots one week does not mean it will be blocked the next. I don't know anyone who makes this mistake though, actually I know one, and we all know whom I'm talking about!

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Solar Cycles
14 October 2014 16:53:09









 Me too! so from what you're saying you think the forecast for below average temperatures (N. Atlantic) which are consistent throughout the next six months means that there will be active lows over the Atlantic?? 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


To me those charts look pretty dreadful for anyone wanting a cold winter just about anywhere in Europe! Above average temperatures are apparently a >80% probability in the GIN sea!


 


To me that spells massive cyclogenesis to our north, while the cooler anomaly down in the N Atlantic stretching down near the Azores suggests a slug-like high pressure anchored to our west/southwest for the duration.


 


Put it this way, I won't be ordering another load of logs!


Originally Posted by: roger63 


 


I may be getting confused here, but hasn't the issue of warmer SST's around the Arctic (due to lower concentrations/thicknesses of ice arising from climate change) been mentioned as a likely cause of a weakening Jet Stream, more prone to buckling, which in turn leads to a higher possibility of the UK being affected by colder winds from the north?


 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I'm far from convinced that the summer ice melt is responsible and it's solar output we should be looking at in this respect.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


You may have a different opinion, but Saint is right that this has been mentioned as a possibility in recent years. 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

So as Solar Ouput Brian.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


The Reading University work suggests that the years around solar minimum have  a higher probability of blocked ie NAO -ve winters.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


This is correct but its also worth pointing out that while dips in the SC correspond to colder years, the method fails in the short term, i.e relatively low sun spots one week does not mean it will be blocked the next. I don't know anyone who makes this mistake though, actually I know one, and we all know whom I'm talking about!


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Yes the lag times are somewhat hazy with anything from a few weeks to months being quoted. Still so much to learn from solar output and it's effects directly and indirectly. 

nickl
14 October 2014 21:14:51

i see that professor cohen is very taken by the october increase in asian snow cover and its possible effect on the winter AO. 

Stormchaser
15 October 2014 09:24:04

For GLOSEA to produce such charts, there must be a strong signal for something to drive the atmosphere in that direction.


...but that does assume that the signal is based on theory that is actually on the ball for this season, which may not be the case.


The same goes for the theory behind signals indicating cold winter patterns.


 


- but the output becomes harder to ignore when there are other models also showing similar outcomes:


   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd2.gif


 


Yikes. At least the Pacific setup looks to be very different to last year, with an NE Pacific trough rather than ridge. If that verified it would lower the SSTs from the current anomalously high values in that region, representing a typical restoring of the balance - so it's not unreasonable to expect that sort of pattern over there this winter.


I'm not convinced by the wavelength between that and the ridge on the other side of the U.S. though - it implies a very flat jet pattern, and CFS in particular tends to get a bit over excited with that sort of thing.


 


As one of those seeking a bit of cold and snow this winter, I hope that these two models are as wide of the mark as they were last November 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Solar Cycles
15 October 2014 09:29:09


For GLOSEA to produce such charts, there must be a strong signal for something to drive the atmosphere in that direction.


...but that does assume that the signal is based on theory that is actually on the ball for this season, which may not be the case.


The same goes for the theory behind signals indicating cold winter patterns.


 


- but the output becomes harder to ignore when there are other models also showing similar outcomes:


   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd2.gif


 


Yikes. At least the Pacific setup looks to be very different to last year, with an NE Pacific trough rather than ridge. If that verified it would lower the SSTs from the current anomalously high values in that region, representing a typical restoring of the balance - so it's not unreasonable to expect that sort of pattern over there this winter.


I'm not convinced by the wavelength between that and the ridge on the other side of the U.S. though - it implies a very flat jet pattern, and CFS in particular tends to get a bit over excited with that sort of thing.


 


As one of those seeking a bit of cold and snow this winter, I hope that these two models are as wide of the mark as they were last November 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Lol, sod and law springs to mind.

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2014 09:31:22

We certainly need to be careful about looking at monthly forecasts from 35 years ago, at this range we have certainly moved on. At the moment there does seem to be a strong indication for a positive NAO winter over the N. Atlantic. This is not related to the El-Nino forecast in my view as El-Nino very weakly favours a negative NAO pattern  later in the winter

Jonesy
15 October 2014 14:32:50

Snow cover spreading laughing...quite rapidly also?



http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Andy J
15 October 2014 15:13:03

Currently getting some very interesting signals from my own system of pattern matching.  I'm getting an increasingly strong signal for a cold and wet November, in particular the second half of November being significantly colder than average.


Getting some mixed signals for Winter as a whole, but slightly favouring a cold Winter with near average rainfall at the moment.

Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.
Jonesy
15 October 2014 15:35:44


Currently getting some very interesting signals from my own system of pattern matching.  I'm getting an increasingly strong signal for a cold and wet November, in particular the second half of November being significantly colder than average.


Getting some mixed signals for Winter as a whole, but slightly favouring a cold Winter with near average rainfall at the moment.


Originally Posted by: Andy J 


What system/method do you use Andy? very interesting your slightly favouring a cold winter, i like the sound of that 

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Solar Cycles
15 October 2014 15:39:49


We certainly need to be careful about looking at monthly forecasts from 35 years ago, at this range we have certainly moved on. At the moment there does seem to be a strong indication for a positive NAO winter over the N. Atlantic. This is not related to the El-Nino forecast in my view as El-Nino very weakly favours a negative NAO pattern  later in the winter


Originally Posted by: TomC 

Im interested in what these strong signals are because all the signals I've looked at say the opposite, not that a winter with a positive  NAO won't happen  though?

Andy J
15 October 2014 16:46:08



Currently getting some very interesting signals from my own system of pattern matching.  I'm getting an increasingly strong signal for a cold and wet November, in particular the second half of November being significantly colder than average.


Getting some mixed signals for Winter as a whole, but slightly favouring a cold Winter with near average rainfall at the moment.


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


What system/method do you use Andy? very interesting your slightly favouring a cold winter, i like the sound of that 


Originally Posted by: Andy J 


I use my own system of matching rainfall/ temperature and trends in wind directions in previous years from my own local weather recordings, compared to the current year.  I know it is a limited method because I'm only using my own local records, and not taking into account changes on a larger scale - but it does seem to provide some decent pointers to the weather types in following months.  For example, before last Winter, I predicted a "cold zonal" pattern through much of the Winter - in the end it turned out to be "mild zonal", so I wasn't too far out I suppose!


 

Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.

Remove ads from site

Ads