A side thought, I tend to let my hair grow quite long but this time last year I suddenly decided to give myself a grade one cut as I had a feeling that the following winter wasn't going to be that good in terms of cold and snow.
   However, since then I have left my hair to grow long again and at the moment I am being very reluctant to cut it. Mmmmm, interesting, especially since I felt the same thing in the Autumn of 2012. Could it be natural caveman-like instincts trying to tell me something?

 Well, it's just as creditable as any long range forecast/snow depth data/OPI theory.

I hadn't looked at those long-range snapshots before. As of now it shows zero air frosts for the whole winter for southern England 

Lowest minimum of +1C some time in March. That would even beat last winter for mildness!

But that is one big sunspot

http://www.solarham.net/regions/map.htm

http://www.solarham.net/regions/2192.htm

Personally I think it's odds on for a lot of Northern blocking resulting from a warmer stratosphere this winter. 

I think this because because that fissure eruption in iceland has been pumping out tons of SO2 for nearly 2 months now, at one point over 70,000 tons a day! The fissure continues to pump it out with no signs of stopping at the moment. It's inevitable that by now a considerably amount has entered that stratosphere of the northern hemisphere. Though it's effect are unlikely to have global implications, some region effects in the mid and northern lattitudes should be reasonably expected... Increasing with time as the eruption continues.

Pure speculation here but what if that effect was warming the stratosphere around the iceland/ Greenland regions :D

I'm not too bothered about what we get in the next 4-5 weeks or so. Better to have Winter start in Winter than Autumn, but if not then I won't moan - beggars can't be choosers 

Cannot beat a snowy period between December and mid-late January IMO. Very weak sun and low angle (better the further north you are) means less likely to melt. Of course other factors tie into this like dew point and air temp as well!!

WSI's blog looks at the Eurasian snowcover and the potential for blocking later this winter:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/europe-eurasian-snow-cover/

Presume one could look at historic eruptions and CET records (1947/8 for Hekla, I believe).  According to the Metoffice records this was unspectacular as winters go?  Might be one for Kev Brads... (or indeed the 1766 eruption)

I dont think the SO2 from the fissure eruption is getting high enough into the atmosphere to have any global effects. The main Volcano itself needs to blow  

That JMA update is striking in how it brings cold 2m temp anomalies to the UK but not the rest of NW Europe, and does so while delivering above average precipitation.

I can think of only one surface pattern that could achieve that - strong blocking to the NW and low pressure running SW to NE through the UK, engaging with cold air and pulling it in across the UK while tending to keep the rest of NW Europe on the mild side.

On the face of it, that would probably deliver a lot of marginal events and many disappointing cases for the SE in particular - but I reckon there would be far wider variation on the theme than the model suggests, with some cold air masses making it into NW Europe while the UK sees some proper cold for a time.

This is only one model, and the odds of verification are, as always, minute - for the most part I've carried out this interpretation of pure interest.

Having said that, from a clash of the emerging signals for blocking this winter with the recent suggestion from most models of an active Atlantic storm chain affecting the UK under a more westerly regime, something like that JMA outlook seems very justifiable... just my opinion of course.

This made me chuckle when it was passed around on facebook just now with people not relising it was last years crappy predictions  

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK

So once pointing out the issue I had to show them this years  

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Echos of what i said yesterday SC.  On their own - they are interesting. But coupled with other models there does seem to be a consensus emerging to plonk HP annomalies to the north west.  and wetter - presumably LP annomalies to the south west.  which would be pretty much ideal for sustained cold weather.

i was looking at some satalite readings a couple weeks back from 8000 meters up and the SO2 is abundant from this eruption across Northern hemisphere. I cant find anything that shows the global stratospheric SO2 levels, however I imagine that would be difficult as the stratosphere begins at various hights around the globe, as low 7-8000 meters in the arctic and in excess of 20,000 meters in the tropics. 

Regarding the effects on temperatures I'm not saying I think it will lowers global temperature, I am talking about regional effects. These are far more likely as the SO2 does effect the temperature of the stratosphere, and has been documented to effect weather patterns as a result. 

 Never mind local northern hemisphere effects, laki in 1786 had long lasting global effects. 😮 :-)

Though hekla didn't have a great effect on the uk in the 40's what about rest of the northern climates? After all, if a blocking pattern was around as a result, we may very well have just been on the wrong side of it.

Yes what is this with people? They are all posting last years front page? two if not 3 of my fb friends have done this??! LOL!

What about LP to the east of the UK (with HP to the NW)? IMO that would give the sort of setup where the UK was cold, but most of the rest of Europe less so. It's also one of my favourite winter setups - assuming the LP isn't so far east that the west of the UK doesn't get snow.

Maybe it says something about Express readers?

I note that Nathan has upped the ante: last year it was just "THREE MONTHS" of "heavy and persistent snow".

For 2014 it's "FIVE MONTHS"

The one theme in Roger J Smith's LRF outlook that I can nod to is the idea of a less monotonous winter... because that won't be hard to achieve at all 

On a more serious note, I can see potential for a good fight from blocking patterns at times, creating more of a battleground than a scene of total annihilation such as we saw last winter.

That's not to say the blocks will be in the right place- we'll need the usual bag of luck for that part of the equation!

It would not surprise me if the winter turned out to be one that, from a cold perspective, was largely mediocre but with one impressive event making it a reasonable one in the eyes of many cold fans, if nothing special overall.

Part of me still wants to entertain the scope for an active Atlantic running into strong, extensive high latitude blocking thanks to a well placed stratospheric warming event, but that's a major case of hope-casting... not out of the question, but a wild card given how difficult such things are to anticipate in advance.

A bit like 1977/78 then James. 

I'll take what we get this winter except 1040mB over the alps for months on end. 

Ah yes, I know all about that one 

Good to see your presence on the forum as we prepare to go through it all again, the silly season beckons after what feels like a two year absence! 

Hi All,

I remember lots of talk about sun spots and sun flares contributing to either mild or cold winters.

Apparantly the Sun has just had one of the largest flare ups in 25 years.

Could this scupper the other building blocks to a blocked colder winter, like th the OPI etc?

Silly season has already started! I came across this on the book of face. Love the first line, strong signals for a SEVERE WINTER quickly followed up by, "We tell you how it is without the HYPE" Almost PMSL! 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0d6e0n5jqyku0tr/snow.png?dl=0