There's already a heads-up in the model output thread from Stormchaser, but I think that this system is going to be a major event for the south with widespread local flooding. The HIRLAM charts indicate 24-hour totals of 20-25 mm generally when totalled up, and many places in central southern England could see 40-50mm.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

See Sun 21z and Mon 00z for the heaviest bursts.

FWIW, my rule of thumb is that if a system arrives earlier than forecast, the rainfall will be more extreme than forecast (and conversely). Well, this morning was supposed to be clear and sunny along the south coast, and it's been quite cloudy, so the system is larger and/or nearer than it 'should' be - and there was a very nice red sky at sunrise, too.

Have noticed rainfall due From tonight and up to next Sunday night.. The levels will suffer again....

I'm not sure about a major rain event at this stage though it does vary between models on rainfall amounts.

Yellow Warning  For Rain issued for Southern parts ...

Looking at the maps for this one it's a shame it wasn't in January - we'd have a major snowstorm on our hands.

hi the system moving north fast . however is really heavy rain for the last hour .

Good idea to have a thread for this, it seems to have developed into an increasingly extreme event in the model output over the past few days, largely due to the low being adjusted westward and pulling more moisture across the UK rather than the North Sea.

Given how high the water tables are (despite the dry September - it's been a very wet year overall), surface water flooding (mostly shallow) will probably be quite widespread tomorrow morning, making for a troublesome rush hour.

Rivers could respond quite a lot in some cases, depending on to what extent the soils at shallow depth have been saturated by recent rains.

Perhaps the biggest impact will be making future rainfall events more likely to cause severe impacts.

Raining here in N.E.Somerset...

Now chucking it down with squally rain but no lightning is being observed. This rounded off what has been a drab, damp and dull afternoon and evening where the rain has been mostly light but persistent in nature.

Really starting to come down now, bashing against the windows

Heavy rain, 15.0mm since midnight, 8.0mm in past hour.  this on top of 14.0mm yesterday.



Edit: 20.0mm since midnight.

 8.4 mm of rain has already fallen since my last station reset at 11 pm last night.  That's on top of 10.4 mm on Saturday and 4.8 mm yesterday.

Not the monsoon rains that were expected around my neck of the woods though with little more than 5mm since 7pm last night. Just windy, cloudy and relatively mild currently

Absolutely ghastly here for the last 18 hours - 29mm since 3pm yesterday.

But it looks from the radar like the far SE may be about to get a two or three hour breather 

A bit of dampness and that's it here.

Rains on and off.. Only light...

30-35mm reported from several amateur stations across Sussex, and minor flooding from Haywards Heath down to Lewes

I brought my brolly to work in the expectation it'd be raining here by now. It's not; it's bone dry here - despite RainToday suggesting otherwise.

Had some rain here this morning, moderate enough to wet surfaces and the rain gauge but it cleared around 11am. Got 1.7mm out of it so not much. Should add that the wind has been more an issue here today, one of the strongest directions for here, on a map there is almost nothing to the NE as it's the direction of the river valley and woodland etc and then it's the Pennines. So no obstacles for the wind to slow down.

Thoroughly vile wet and gloomy sort of day here with frequent bands of heavy rain interspersed with drizzle. About 27mm locally so far.