Is that the page matt hugo setup - I know he has set up a page to distribute updates on  real actual weather forecast.  Rather than the hype found on the express/mail which results in several spam msgs been thrown about, and subsequent negative feedback to actual weather professionals.

Its his way of tackling such nusiance facebook threads.

Anyone know what has happened to the Siberian snow cover site?  Its completely vanished.  Was enjoying my daily feed of progress :(

Hi there. It takes prolonged higher activity to have a notable impact, or so I've read 

Same for me also, been down for most of this week :(

I hear there has been a serious hardware failure (assume server failure) at NOAA/NIC website. Has also effected NOAA sea surface temperature website as that's not been available all week either.

Very frustrating at such a critical time. Nobody would would care if NIC website went down in July, LOL.

They're currently undergoing a big hardware upgrade which is separate to the GFS upgrade. Both projects are scheduled to finish before the end of this year.  

Been some snow in Northern Romania today, can see some on the trees, cars and the grass verge near the cars. I like looking at this webcam in Winter, it can get VERY snowy in Suceava.

http://svnews.ro/webcam-live/webcam-suceava-palatul-administrativ/

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/LRSV/2014/10/24/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Thanks Brian.

I hope we get the snow cover and SST charts back before year end.

Looks like it would be a nice stroll in Rovaniemi tonight - with snow on the ground. 

http://www.rovaniemi.fi/roikpiwebcamimages/Kamera2_00001.jpg

A bit of cross threading here.  I'm with the Met O and Beijing on the coming winter.  I cannot see a cold winter developing after the run of mild months we've had and the SSTs are around 16 locally compared to the LTA of 13-12 c.

My present prognosis for the winter is that a flabby Euro High will affect the S and E of Britain with slack south westerly and southerly flows.  Lows will affect the N W of the UK with frequent SW a W winds and above average rainfall in the W.  Mild and dry in the S and E of the UK, 2014 should deliver the warmest year on record.  The early part of 2015 will continue in much the same vein.  As a whole, it is difficult to say, but not impossible in the current climatic trends, that winter 2014-15 will be even milder than its predecessor.  Lows and their fronts will affect all parts but their influence in the S and E will be far less than was the case last winter.  Cold air will remain bottled up to the N and E despite several major model teases  in the range of 300-216 hours that show an outbreak reaching Britain from the N E.  March may see a sudden switch to colder northerlies.

I will issue a winter forecast nearer to December 1st, by which time my opinion may have altered.  November is always a key month for winter LRFs, mainly because it gets you a better chance of an accurate start to the December forecast if you leave it til Dec 1st.  LoL.

WI

I find the only effective method of an accurate long-range forecast for Dec to Feb is to publish it on 1st March

ROFL.  You have a point there!

Anybody know whats happened to the natice website ? -  I havent been to access it for a week now

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

its the one that shows the advancing ice and snow over the north ?

thanks

their website is down I think.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81676-winter-2014-15-preliminary-view-cold-possibly-very-cold-drier-than-ave/

thanks

steve

Brilliant Webcam below of the first snowfall of the season currently in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. It's like a blizzard!. The snow coverage map will now extend south into Central Asia!

http://live.saimanet.kg/ru/cams/2#.VE1mOCsrsTM

Good stuff Steve

Lets hope that is how it pans out

FWIW, Joe Bas tardi's latest updated winter forecast for North America. Now that may or may not have ramifications for over here.

The actual forecast starts about 5.40 into the vid.

The comparison between Northern Hemisphere snow cover this year vs last year is especially interesting.

Now I certainly make no claims to be an expert, but if Weatherbell's prediction of blocking over the Canadian high arctic pans out I find it difficult to believe model suggestions we're going to have a mild winter over here, although I suppose it comes down to where the polar vortex is ultimately displaced to..

Joe always was a cold ramper.

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014

What about UK!?!??

Cast your mind back to 1990 and 1995? A long run of above average months and the following winters were? Cold.

Infact,  the second half of February to early December 2009 was largely above average and look at that following winter.

Not saying next winter will be cold but a long run of above average months will not prevent a cold winter as the above examples show.

i know it's not impossible, just IMHO improbable. 

Kev is right though just because we've had a run of above average months doesn't mean it will continue this coming winter, of course it may well do but you can't rely on what's happened in the run up as a set in stone forecast for the future. Unless your a climate scientist of course.

CPF updated and although it offers a few crumbs of comfort for coldies later on it favours a mild Nov, Dec and Jan.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/6/o/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf

So it's the CPF v OPI!