All I'm going to say is back in early Nov 2010 I was sitting in warm sunshine and would never of imagined what I was going to face at the end of the month no matter what any chart was suggesting, FI or not FI.

Things can change very quickly, we have only just gone halfway through Autumn, 48hrs since the Anniversary of the Great Storm of 87, ...keep the faith 

 

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

Yes and mid month was very wet and windy. Then BANG! a huge change. 

Originally Posted by: Osprey 

Hmm! Been thinking the same! Big freeze in December2010, followed by mild new year. However it'll probably do the opposite knowing our weather...

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 

  please just not a repeat winter like last year,   

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

If it is I am moving to Finland! somewhere in the north like Rovaniemi where it's a big enough town/city to buy essential things but there is tons of snow all Winter! I may be getting old but I still like snow! apologies mods I am going off the thread subject. 

BOOM!

Tonight's models seem to have upgraded the potency of Tuesday's low...gusts over 40mph?

Gathering Opinion wrt the GFS and UKMO and Bracka Faxes, The MidLattitude Low Pressure Belt and Swirly Action Low's are quite Good Tracks so it means some fun weather over Parts of UK and Europe to be had and Iceland plus the NW and N to ENE Atlantic plus A Strong placed to our South and SW especially Azores High.

Iceland Vortex and Low Pressure with Heavy winter mix of rain sleet and snow, and A Strong Norwegian Scandy and NW Sweden High also well formed and hold in place this looks interesting- wrt the Blocking High vs.  Iceland NE Atlantic PV stuck Low P.

Quite an wet and windy spell is abound for at least 5 days.

A Hurricane turn to Depression mean UK yet get more risk of heavy rain and Thundery hail showers expected too.

Roll on Autumn, bye Summer.

😀😎💦🌂

Gonzalo really is a fascinating system. I've attempted to pinpoint the time at which it goes extra-tropical by using theta maps. I've drawn the rough position of surface fronts that I would expect with these systems, its interesting to watch as the front-less warm core system evolves into a triple front cold core mid-latitude depression.

One would assume surface flooding could well be an issue. Certainly far more the relative breeze that'll accompany it, despite certain toilet paper news editions. 

Not much change in the overall scheme of things from the models today I'm afraid. Here's today's report.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

And so it begins - mind you, I'm surprised at the lack of interest on this as for some of us it's "finally, exciting weather at last!" and for others who may be concerned about damage and disruptions caused by the strong wind and heavy rain.

Anyway, Mind if I do the obligatory St Jude's Storm (Oct 28th last year) contrast and comparison thing?

This system is expected to take a more northerly track than St Jude's and then steer towards the south east heading towards Germany in doing so (which is unusual for such a system as they normally turn towards the north east as they pass over the UK), so on this occasion it looks like Scotland. Wales, Northern Ireland and North and East England are going to take the brunt of it with storm force winds. Whereas St Judes sliced though the middle part of England and thus Southern England got it in the neck.
   This is being a well modelled system whereas the models had struggled with St Judes in terms of tracking even right up to the last minute.
This appears to be a day-time event with the trough passing through the country at mid-day whereas St Jude's was a night time event. Not good for people trying to go about their day-to-day business.
   On a more selfish note, here at this end (Kent) the wind looks like being westerly for most of the time, with the strongest coming in from the north west, I tend to be more sheltered by that here at my south-facing coastal area. It only takes a typically strong southerly wind for me to feel the effects!
   Finally, look how high pressure is forecast to very quickly ridge in from the west as the low pressure pile drive onto the North Sea by the evening - that sharp SW/NE pressure gradient is going to give the coastal strip of the Low Countries a headache with a risk of a tidal surge (unless it happens to be low tide or neap tides at that time?) by that evening. Either or, I wouldn't like to be on a North Sea ferry crossing on that evening.

A frontal system within a frontal system. The inner smaller frontal system is actually the remnants of Speedy Gonzola . . .

Thank you for watching.

Another analysis of the extratropical cyclone Gonzalo. 

This is the GFS theta output as usual.

Now, a very typical feature of ex-tropical storms is their ability to undergo baroclinic deepning in the midlatitudes. This can make some rather extreme systems. However in this case, we do have some baroclinic deepening but it is not that significant. That being said the maximum rate of deepening is about 1.3mb/hour which is very high. Over a 24 hour period we have a maximun deepen of about 15mb. This does not meet the 24mb threshold for bombogenesis (very fast deepening which can produce severe storms), it does meet the threashold for a 12 hour period and for a 1 hour period it is well above, but it is not sustained for long enough for this system to be reasonably considered a bomb. That being said, it is not a minor feature either and gusts on that cold front could exceed 60/70 mph for a time and on the southern part of the 'former eye wall' we could see sustained windspeeds of that for a shrot time. This is most likely to affect scotland. Swell could be a problem down the east coast aswell, this should be watched. In terms of precipitation the heaviest will be on an extremely active cold front, sustained rates will probably be in excess of 15mm/hr however it will clear through very quickly. The air behind is unstable and cold enough for the lake effect to kick in, W areas should be prepared for squally and heavy showers perhaps even with soft hail. I have tried to illustrate where I think the frontal areas and troughs are likely to be, the precipitation will seem more like 1 front as the W and C front will be very close together. Precipitation in scotland is likely to be more persistant closer to the centre of the low, with a transition between frontal rain and heavy showers.

Good morning folks. Here's my daily report on the models.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Here's ECM (left) and GFS (right) for 6 days time. Following the bold black line dividing the yellows from the greens as a guide, you can see how ECM has a more substantial dip (trough) in the jet than GFS does - i.e. GFS has the flatter solution.

This has a big effect on how things evolve over the following few days;

These day 10 charts show major disagreement on the placement of a large HP cell.

ECM opts for the HP to the east of the UK slowly being forced south as the Atlantic jet stream rides over the top, and has that HP combining with a strong ridge from the Azores to produce a strong and large area of HP across the UK for day 10.

GFS has the jet stream powering through Scandinavia much sooner and further south, which forces the HP further south as well, and also brings the Atlantic storms much closer to the UK. The day 10 setup has a strong sense of deja-vu about it, being remarkably similar to what we're just coming out of today.

In the run-up to the setup of the past few days, the models initially went for a vast area of HP across the UK and Europe, but this was gradually dropped in favour of low pressure to the west and a ridge across Europe, bringing a more unstable situation but with temperatures a long way above average by night in particular.

That shouldn't have much influence on what we end up with this time round, though - just an interesting observation really.

Cor, GFS has got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning going by their latest low res output. Funny how it flipped from trending with a lovely high pressure theme (mellow settled weather with frost and fog) in the second half of this month to showing crappy large Atlantic lows with gales and rain crashing onto the UK in the space of just two runs, talk about letting us down gently (!). But it IS all in FI land anyway, just have to hope it is an outlier (or something like that).
  On the other hand, this Tuesday's event has been slightly downgraded. I did think the earlier idea of this low pressure running south-east along the North Sea was a bit odd when they usually veer to the left (towards the north-east) as they cross over the UK.

Even for Moscow this is quite impressive in October. -11C uppers and quite a few ice days to come this week.

SAI RECORDS SMASHED... Will be the headline if the ECM verifies.

Almost PERFECT conditions for deep snowcover west of Russia by the end of the run, completing a bonanza month on the snow advancement index.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

S

Good points there Steve, in fact I was just thinking about what would be coming our way in the near future if the blocking was retrogressing west rather than being eroded east!

That LP sliding through Scandinavia sets things up for the block to extend west days 9 and 10:

With excellent warm air advection up towards Iceland and a good supporting low underneath the ridge, this would hold a lot of promise in around a month and a half's time (maybe less in a particularly cold year to our NE).

It could deliver an early taste of winter if we kept on seeing WAA occur increasingly far west in the Atlantic going forward from the above, but that's just crazy speculation at this time 

There's the cold snap in Moscow:

Could be better than anything we see in the UK this winter. 

Which wouldn't be a surprise really

what are SAI RECORDS??

Highlighted

ah, lol. I see now, thank you :)

Apart from the odd storm system this fairly quiet and mild Autumn weather looks set to continue across the UK. Here's today's report.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

That looks energetic 

Meanwhile ECM continues to show a more settled evolution - but with the overall pattern now much closer to what GFS has been going for:

This does feel a lot like what took place regarding last week's setup; both models initially had high pressure in control, then GFS decided that the Atlantic storm systems would be a lot closer to hand, while ECM resisted for a few days, only for the final evolution to be roughly a blend of 2/3 GFS and 1/3 ECM - high pressure was far from in control, but the Atlantic low didn't make quite as much inroads as GFS was going for.

Will we see the same again for conditions in 8-10 days time? Those watching river levels nervously will be hoping that instead ECM is close to the mark. A blend of 50% GFS and 50% ECM would be very wet somewhere near or over the UK due to slow moving frontal systems and convective elements - much like last week was. Something closer to GFS would be an absolute soaker.

Take your pick... 

Almost forgot to mention - GEM goes for a strong HP influence and exceptionally high upper air temperatures (no guarantees at the surface - think fog and low cloud), which is more or less a repeat of what it came up with on yesterday's 12z op run:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014102000/gem-0-240.png?00

Unusual consistency for such an extreme solution, and it's not actually all that far from what ECM has for us. Given the tendency of GEM and to a lesser extent ECM to over-amplify the pattern beyond day 4 or 5, I'm anticipating a closer Atlantic presence - but not as far as GFS takes it.