And no doubt most of which will have melted back by mid November. Didn't we experience this in 2012. Signs were promising throughout October but the snow melt began early Nov and retreated to poor coverage by the time our winter had started.

Wasn't winter 2012/13 pretty good? OK, no lasting brass-monkeys spell, but 3 or 4 good falls IMBY, right into March

We're only half-way through the meteorogical autumn though- no need to be concerned yet IMO.

Maybe in about 4 weeks' time we might have a better idea of how December at least might shape up.

I don't see what snow cover out East has anything to do with us in the slightest.

A long fetch south westerly going east off the edge of the map:

The ECM operational looks rather different today in an otherwise continuing westerly pattern. Here's today's report.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Prolonged periods of one type of weather can often induce a feeling that nothing will ever change  - this could not be further from the reality. How often will the change be sudden, dramatic and here's the key poing - almost unheralded until its almost here. It happened over the summer with August letting the side down after a long dry, sunny spell. In the short term the current weather is interesting - bouts of rain and wind coming and going.

Plus - its October...

It looks like the different ECM op at Day 10 was out of kilter with its ensemble pack as the 10 Day Mean keeps the North/South mild split going.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

I well remember the early stages of last winter on here. We were stuck in seemingly endless high pressure and as we began December the talk was of endless anticyclonic gloom and it possibly being the driest December on record.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12144&p=3

Well, we know how that turned out...! 

Hi all

Here's today's video update;

Mild and unsettled end to October;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

October nailed on to yet another mild month!

ECM looking chilly in fi.

Yes, that ought to allow a frost or two...

A few chinks of interest for 'cold fans' this morning but it is a drop in the ocean but acorns and oak trees come to mind. However, here is my interpretation of events posted on my website.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All stubbornly familiar with this morning's 10 day Mean Chart from ECM. Low pressure to the NW and High to the South of the UK and broad and relatively mild SW'lies covering all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Thanks Gibby, something to keep an eye on atleast.

“November comes
And November goes,
With the last red berries
And the first white snows.

With night coming early,
And dawn coming late,
And ice in the bucket
And frost by the gate.

The fires burn
And the kettles sing,
And earth sinks to rest
Until next spring.”
― Clyde Watson

Youve just gotta wonder if there are a few sniffs in FI of something interesting happening.  Both ECM and GFS end on the doorstep of something quite attractive for cold weather.  CFS has been hinting at a very similar pattern for weeks now, though it keeps shifting this from november to February and back again.  But i think the overall consensus from CFS is there will be some sort of northern blocking at some point...

Though if i remember - i do this every year.  October brings the first Blues in FI to the UK, and I get ll over excited. 

Live on

The ridge across Europe is looking increasingly strong and influential for the middle of next week. GFS still has low pressure development breaking it down without much delay, but ECM has produced a much slower breakdown this morning.

In fact, the plume of warm air remains in place across the UK for the remainder of the run, for example:

This could well translate to mist, fog and/or low cloud at the surface, with very mild nights and days and that now rather familiar clammy feel to the air.

With a bit of luck, warm with plenty of sunshine is not out of the question though.

Trouble is, nothing of the sort comes from the GFS version of events - and the 06z GFS op run just breaks things down even faster.

This isn't true of UKMO though, which looks capable of maintaining the plume at least as much as ECM does:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014102200/ECM1-144.GIF

Meanwhile GEM is essentially a slightly slower version of the GFS 00z... so it's a classic west of the Atlantic/east of the Atlantic standoff at the moment!

Longer term, more in the way of higher heights in the Arctic from GFS, and ECM has performed a dramatic turnaround from what was a string of runs with much lower Arctic heights:

Not bad at all for the start of November 

The main point there is the lack of organisation to the polar vortex, which during winters like the last one is an intense area of persistent low heights covering a large part of the high latitudes and bringing an often long lasting run of storms to those under its influence.

ECM charts not updated on the TWO viewer...

In summary, the model now shows the LP development Tue-Wed next week that GFS has been going for, which clears the warm, muggy air mass away while bringing a fair amount of rain for most of us. It's then much cooler for the final few days of the month with a risk of frost overnight as a ridge of high pressure drifts through the UK.

GFS persists with that idea, and at about the same pace of the 00z, after that faster 06z run. It then brings in the next Atlantic low more quickly than ECM does, meaning we're back in a mild air stream again after about a day of the fresh conditions.

UKMO still doesn't go for that LP development, so the transition to a cooler, fresher regime is a slower affair.

GEM develops the LP but doesn't take it NE so readily as GFS and ECM, instead having it slide south towards Spain for a day or so, after which it dissipates - the mild regime holds on to the end of the 30th, similar to today's ECM 00z run.

So... not much clarity on how quickly things progress next week, but the general theme of one Atlantic trough moving away to the NE and being replaced by another one out to our west - perhaps tracking more E than NE - is consistent across the models.

Up in the Arctic, there's not much in the way of developments to report, with the PV still looking to remain disorganised over the next 10 days and probably longer based on current output.

They're available on the new server now (same urls) and should be a tad smoother to view. I've also made some changes to the GFS charts and GEFS charts and will make more in the next few days.