Server problems on my website this morning means you can read my report here for a change. Apologies for the formatting.
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2014.
NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY OCTOBER 25TH 08:00
The General Synopsis. Troughs of Low pressure will clear slowly away East across Southern Britain today with
further showery troughs in the NW blown in on very strong WSW winds.
Two Week Headline. Mostly mild and changeable with rain at times especially in the North and West but with some short drier and brighter spells too especially in the South.
The Jet Stream Forecast. The overall thrust of the Jet Stream over the coming two weeks continues to blow strongly
from the West or SW across the Atlantic and the North of the UK for the foreseeable future.
GFS Operational. Todays operational run shows mild SW winds largely in control over the UK over the coming week
with a weakening of the flow for a time midweek as a decaying cold front slips SE over the UK. Some rain is likely
for all as this change takes place with cooler conditions following on. However, by next weekend more Atlantic
depressions re-invigorate energy from the SW with mild weather returning with rain towards the NW. Through Week 2 the
trend is for a greater chance of cooler and more settled weather to slowly develop as higher pressure develops
across the UK with mist and fog developing widely at night, probably slow to clear by day by the end of the run as
winds fall light.
GFS Ensembles. The GFS Ensembles are relentless in maintaining winds from a West or SW direction throughout the
run this morning as the status quo of Low pressure to the North and NW and High to the South and SE persists. As a
result the theme remains for generally mild and somewhat unsettled weather with the majority of rain and wind
towards the North and West while the South and East sees decent dry and at times bright spells.
UKMO. UKMO today shows a spell of slack winds towards midweek as a cold front clears SE. Rain would give way to
fine and bright weather with mist and fog in places before mild South or SW winds pick up again later in the week
with rain once more focused towards the Northwest.
GEM. GEM today shows a mild SW flow backing Southerly later next week as a large Atlantic low becomes dominant.
With time this is shown to extend further East and NE towards West and NW Britain with all areas becoming under
increasing risk of rain and showers, heavy at times in mild SW winds.
NAVGEM. NAVGEM shows a quieter period midweek as High pressure develops following a trough SE. Early rain clears
to leave a dry and bright couple of days with cooler temperatures and overnight mists and fog. Thereafter a large
Atlantic depression inches in closer to the UK strengthening the mild Southerly flow and delivering rain at times
to most parts by next weekend.
ECM. ECM follows this general theme as well with increasingly unsettled weather for all areas and not just the NW
following the quieter period midweek when cooler weather could generate decent days but foggy nights for a time
before the milder, unsettled and breezier weather returns later. There remains a hint of a pattern change right at
the end of this run with much colder air waiting in the wings to the NW under higher pressure in the days that
follow the end of the run.
MY THOUGHTS. October is certainly going to end up a very much milder month than average, something which has been
all very common through this year. In the coming few weeks the weather largely remains Atlantic based with High
pressure to the SE and Low to the North and NW maintaining a broad scale North/South split in the weather. However,
nothing in model analysis is as straightforward as that and there are a couple of intervals in this pattern when
there is scope for something a little cooler. One such occasion is towards the middle of next week when a weakish
area of High pressure could deliver a couple of cooler more quiescent Autumn days with a fog risk at night
following a weakening cold front SE. Then as usual other chinks in this basic pattern appear far out in la la land
with ECM the cream of the crop on Day 10 where Low pressure looks like eventually edging away to the East in the
days that follow the run and allowing the chance of colder air from Iceland and the Arctic to drift down across
the UK under rising pressure. However, having mentioned that it again is just one run in isolation and I see
nothing in any ensemble data and Jet Stream prognosis to suggest that anything other that the large percentage of
the next few weeks will remain mild and benign with the most rain and wind from autumnal Low pressure focused
greatest towards the North and West while Southern and Eastern parts in particular see plenty of dry and bright
weather with only more occasional lighter rainfall at times.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset