No signs of anything remotely cold in the reliable time frame then.

Please keep it succinct and substantiable .......... 

Hear a pin drop in here and with this type of output I'm not terribly surprised.

ECM continues to set up a SW-NE Aligned trough with height retrogression in mid Atlantic towards Greenland towards T216-T240. This does not bring anything remotely cold to our shores (for now)..but it has to be said that developments to our N and NE are interesting and certainly sufficient enough for me to keep half an eye on. 

The GFS ensemble suite posted by Brian shows a definite progression to a cooler set up moving into November.

ICON is the new German model which replaces GME.

See this link ICON model

ICON stands for ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic general circulation model

Read more at this link - see slide 9 onwards 2012 DWD report 

or on the Max Planck website here http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/models/icon.html

Maybe someone like Stormchaser can explain further what the benefits of the new model are. It is all just gobbledegook to me.

new, very high-res, icosahedral model that the DWD and Max Planck Institute are testing, so I understand

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsicoeur.html

went live on wetter this morning I think?

Currently on test and seems to be running in parallel with the existing GME model. Only goes out to T78 on Wetter at the moment. The T72 charts for both models on the 12z run look very similar but then you would expect that as it is only 3 days out.

Charts also available on Meteociel at this link also out to T78 http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/icone_cartes.php

There may be a break in the well above average temperatures on Wednesday next week for Scotland and perhaps Northern England.

Otherwise, little change to report from the 12z models regarding the period Saturday to Friday, beyond which details aren't worth worrying about.

Longer term, GFS is consistently showing a displaced PV locating over Siberia, which raises the potential for a major trough east of the UK and a cold northerly airflow, and ECM looks as if it might be headed that way based on the day 8-10 evolution - so a few positive signs for cold weather fans, but very early stages yet and it could be a red herring for all we know.

That is different on Meteociel  that could be handy did not see that there.

Nearly two-thirds the way through Autumn now (how the time flies), and still awaiting my first decent frost or even a foggy morning of note. This must be almost without precedent.

GFS 0z and 6z runs both showing very steep temperature gradients over the UK for a time next week. This pattern has crept in during the last few runs and looks quite well supported by the GEFS.

A rain maker that Brian.

Yes I just made that point to someone but I think the angle early next week will be on the warmth in the south. 

The most remarkable thing weather wise in coming days would be associated with the amber weather warning for Monday and Tuesday for NW Scotland where up to 200mm is forecast for some of the hillier areas. More widely in the area there is expected to be over 100mm. Even for an area used to heavy rain these totals are very high for a two day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

Agree and expect the weather to be making the news again next week. This seems to have crept out of the woodwork in recent days or it could just be me missing it because I've been very busy.

its just as well these areas are fairly desolate... So any flooding shouldn't effect people so much.

Off subject here, this new forum layout is shocking to use with an IPhone, it's very difficult to type a message/ reply. 

NOW When Gusty turns up....that's when I start to get excited 

keep it clean Jonsey!

Huge difference in the upper air temps from north to south on Tuesday 

I'm seeing something interesting in the models, a significant westward displacement of the Azors high. This could come to nothing, and the arctic isn't playing ball yet; but a calm atlantic is more important than a calm arctic. Let's see how this pans out.

Very nice day 10 chart from the ECM this morning. Not cold enough yet probably a month early but good to see.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html