Apologies for lack of reporting yesterday but ongoing problems at my website server preventing update plus busy at work so looks like the rest may have done a bit of good 'cause there is signs of a change this morning 'perhaps'.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

If you like damp, chilly-ish weather. 

Something a bit different though admittedly, although miles out and not supported 

got this horrible feeling we in for yet another mild winter. hope im wrong, its just from what im reading from various sources, on weather forums,, and just seen gav p winter round up forecast....

It matters not a jot what you read. No one knows what this winter is going to be like. Probably best you don't read long range forecasts. 

What will be will be. Could be cold, could be mild and could be everything in between. 

The weather from that ECM 240z chart isn't especially interesting, but those kind of synoptic's always raise my interest, because low pressure diving south in that way and forming "cut off's" around Spain is the sort of pattern should it be sustained, that show's the jet stream is acting abnormally.

If anybody remembers back to summer 2007 and October/November 2008 this kind of pattern was really the first sign of trouble...

Anyway, it's only one chart at 10 days away, so best not say much more.

Interestingly the 06z GFS op run shows a similar scenario to the ECM 00z op run albeit a little colder

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

Too early to be of any real interest but a sign that we are getting closer to "that time of the year"

SSTs being high means plenty o' convection.  Cairngorms could get plastered.

Snow chart from today's GEFS6z on November 5th. Very interesting run and I think something is cooking mid range. 

Something really interesting is starting to go down here. Take a look at this:

Note the transfer of the pink colours (500hpa positive anomolies) from Europe to Greenland. It isn't a perfect situ by any means, and the arctic isn't cooperating yet, but it does look to be the start of a pattern change, and at this stage perhaps all that is needed are maybe 2 or 3 depressions to drive cold air south towards the UK.

With that in mind look at this exampleaur:

Please don't take this literally, its a 384 chart so I'm only posting it as an example of the point I made above. i.e that after 3 or so depressions have gone past, the setup is more optimised for a chance of cold air across the UK; ofc another equally plausible scenario is the atlantic becomes active again.; 

There are increasingly strong signals for the PV to be locating somewhere from Siberia to the eastern reaches of Asia from about a week's time, encouraging trough development to our east.

This is all very well, but some amplification of the flow in the Atlantic, with a strong mid-Atlantic ridge, is needed to make the most of that from a cold perspective.

The GFS 06z op run today featured a fairly weak mid-Atlantic ridge, yet even that produced charts that would bring snowfall for the northern half of the UK, though only as a transient affair.

I'm inclined to sit back with my skeptical hat on for the time being. To my eye, one piece of a huge puzzle may be falling into place, but we've got a long way to go yet.

Before all that, next week continues to look very mild with well above average temperatures Monday, Tuesday and Friday, hitting the high teens widely. Thursday sees temperatures not quite so far above average (mid-teens), except perhaps in the south (high teens possible).

Wednesday is the bump in the road, with near average temperatures, maybe even a touch below by day (close to 10*C) as a frontal system becomes strung out west-east across England and Wales. There's the potential for a cold night for Scotland and northern parts of England and Wales Tue-Wed or Wed-Thu, depending on how far south the frontal system locates - the clear, chilly air mass is to the north of the boundary. The GFS 12z has trended north with the boundary, largely confining the cold night temperatures to Scotland.

Friday afternoon or evening onward, it seems we'll be under attack from Atlantic storms again, with numerous frontal systems to deal with along with the usual showery periods in between.

That moment when the 552 isopleth reaches greenland and you know its about to get interesting....

Good morning folks. Another working week begins and still not scraped any ice on my windscreen so far this season. Is there any chance of this in the next few weeks. Here is my interpretation of how the models look this morning including now the ECM Ensembles.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Looks certain now that as we go into Friday, a large area of Low Pressure will move in to blight the weekend. Quite how quickly it arrives is still not completely clear.

Up until a day or two ago, ECM had its arrival on Saturday, whilst GFS brought it through on the Friday. GFS has pretty much stuck to its guns, and has consistently shown much of the first bands of rain fizzling out before reaching England (damp over NI/W Scotland/W Wales). ECM, meanwhile, has brought the arrival forwards to early Friday, and the orientation of the Low brings a higher chance of the PPN being more progressive in its journey eastwards.

I need Friday to be dry and calm!!

I would rather have the dry and unusually warm Friday that GFS shows - it could be one of the warmest birthdays I've had 

The 00z output depicts an unsettled regime trying to establish this weekend, with some ran and windy conditions for us all, followed by a transient ridge from the SW next week ahead of further Atlantic storms pushing east.

That ridge from the SW is what's become of the potential mid-Atlantic ridge, due to the jet now looking flatter across the Atlantic than the models were going for just a couple of days ago.

That flatter jet also allows the Atlantic trough to merge with another near Svalbard, which then allows the polar vortex to establish over Greenland rather than somewhere near Siberia. Unless the models revert to a more amplified jet allowing a ridge in the Arctic to keep the low heights away from Greenland, anything more than transient cold behind Atlantic storm systems appears unlikely this side of mid-November.

This is the sort of shift in model output that cold hunters dread in the depths of winter... happens most years so be prepared 

 How often do we see this sort of thing happening? It does seem to be a common theme and that's why although I enjoy speculating my view is one of the most important things in medium range forecasting is to be patient and wait for a pattern to be shown for several days as well as across the main models.

What I like about the weather is it can be like this now, wam dull/bright and the models predict no change for a few weeks, then next day or

two voilà is the change to a cold snap or maybe a bad storm heading our way, then days after, models forecast all change again...

Yeah all talk of a pattern change in early November looks premature, more of the same really for the foreseeable dreary skies and drizzle IMBY.

Yes cloudy mild crap sums it up.

At least until the end of the week when things could turn much more unsettled and cooler.

I've just added in 6 hour plots for the full GEFS tmin - tmax 2m temperature spread. These are available on the GEFS option on the chart viewer.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Each GEFS run as well as the control and op runs have 2 lines on the plot, one for min and one for max forecast temperatures. The thick white lines are the mean min and max values. 

So your birthday is on Friday as well :-)

This looks great to me - a definite downward trend, which is ideal for the time of year. Not sub-zero yet perhaps (except for a few outliers) but that's just about right for early Nov; I have hopes of a chilly if not frosty Bonfire Night, which is just the way it should be! 

I don't know why your drooling at those, they're absolutely horrendus from a snow point of view. They end still above average lol 

At this time of year, there's virtually no chance of any decent snowy weather, however cold the synoptics.....  I think the sentiment was for a more seasonal autumnal feel - i.e. cooler, crisp rather than unrealistic snowy, ice days. 

Im not sure Snowfan is looking for Snow, more for just some decent early Novemberish weather