One thing most of the models have in common this morning is the projection of a 'ragged' polar vortex - sure, it becomes a bit more pronounced during the next 10 days or so, but the areas of very low heights  (sub-500 dam - purple shading on the TWO charts) never really consolidate into one strong vortex, instead venturing down to the lower latitudes to produce several areas of strong trough activity:

Now, GFS doesn't show more than very shallow areas of high pressure managing to exploit the disorganised setup and invade the Arctic, so although we see the low heights extending down toward places such as the mid-Atlantic (via a route through Canada), it doesn't get very far - only just making it south of Greenland for the most part. In this case, the main trough complex affecting the UK sets up in just the right place to develop a strong ridge through NW Europe, resulting in a very mild setup for the UK.

ECM has the displacement making it much further south:

In this case, there's a lot more in the way of high pressure across the Arctic, mainly N of the UK and also N of the Pacific, where low heights have also displaced further south than GFS takes them. The region around Siberia is similar in both model outputs, and things can get quite interesting from a cold perspective if the main polar vortex circulation establishes in that area - though you need the right positioning and some good blocking highs in place to really benefit.

The parallel GFS run - effectively the upgraded version of the model - leans closer to ECM than the operational GFS:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014102900/gfsnh-0-240.png?0

Note the presence of HP in the Arctic with the vortex in pieces. It doesn't come to anything on this run - what's needed is for a ridge to build north to the higher latitudes, an event which is more likely with the polar vortex broken up, but is by no means a given.

To my untrained eye the 6z is showing much higher heights around the arctic in FI. Not leading to much but nice to see all the same.

Edit - Builds a nice scandy high at the end but a little too far east for any interest but as I already said nice to see all the same.

Next week's cold snaplet shows up quite nicely on the GFS 6z and there's more interest in FI too. Chilly Bonfire Night if correct: 

That would be one day of cold temps then?

Most welcome

I was interested a few days ago, but can't see anything at all on the models to excite me at the moment. The Atlantic looks to stay active for the next 2 weeks at least, no sign of any sustained attempt at height rises or warm air advection on the american side of the Atlantic. The GFS is particularly hopeless offering a very flat northern jet, so far north that it might actually be dry for southern parts and pleasantly mild at times (the very brief cold snap this week excepted of course).

We've been through this, the daily express is not a reliable source.

The GFS ensembles provide a surprisingly clear picture (The ECM will be similar but perhaps a little colder), by the end of the run there are only a couple of subzero runs, and there are a handful of runs more than 5C. The small dip on the 5th of November will indeed be the first real cold snap of the winter, however it is unlikely wintry precipitation will make it south of Scotland.

Wet bulbs only come down under a ridge of high pressure, and the airmass is not cold enough for the lake effect to produce anything inland of the coast in England. 

Looks like we're in for our first little northerly cold snap of the season next week! Might even have a frosty Bonfire night for the first time in yonks, LOL!

If that happens, it'll be a shock to the system after the current mildness. Looks as though temperatures will take something of a downward trend going into next week if the models have it right.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.gif

Certainly a welcome drop in temps

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif

I can't post the link cos I'm on a train, but anyone else noticed how the GEM develops? Nothing too cold for us but the way it shapes up through Greenland and the northern hemisphere is fascinating! I'll say no more, but interesting to look out for the ECM and GEM ens after that.  

Wow, the GEM is very promising for cold weather lovers. Where did that come from!?

Colder and more seasonal if the Met is to be believed.

Looks like we're in for our first little northerly cold snap of the season next week! Might even have a frosty Bonfire night for the first time in yonks, LOL!

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Colder and more seasonal if the Met is to be believed.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Lol, it's the Quantum factor. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Nah, it would have to be the Navgem for that. Anyway drunk GEM aside the cold snap is going to be pretty short, if it was mid January it might be cold enough for some snow showers more generally, as it is, I doubt the frosts will even get to the south. That azors high is going to really ruin things for us if it stays there; on the bright side at least it isn't a bartlett. 

In the longer term (7-10 days +), GFS and ECM both show Atlantic troughs pushing across to the UK only to hit a wall to our east in the form of a large blocking high.

If the Atlantic jet was to track a bit further south, with the blocking to the east becoming even stronger, the setup would be quite close to that of mid-November 2009:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091112.gif

Just look how close that is to the ECM 12z op run at day 10:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20141029/12/ecm500.240.png

A bit more Atlantic energy in the 2014 version really is the main difference - but that could prove an issue if it verifies, not just for building the blocks in the right sort of places but also in terms of precipitation potential as frontal systems slow to a crawl across the UK.

Of course, there's always the possibility that the models will tone down the Atlantic so far that the HP turns out to be more influential this time around, keeping the fronts out west and bringing a chilly continental flow.

Another day, another box of mysteries!

A brief skeg at the GFS 0z and ensembles this morning. Looking pretty zonal throughout with little excitement on offer. With ridges and a general lift in pressure to the south it looks like a typical NW/SE set up after the low early next week which looks to have been slightly modified wrt cold. In the meantime, tomorrow could be a record breaker in the other direction.

... which brings a lot of cold arctic air down into eastern Europe

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

There's hope for the winter yet!

Nothing to excite anyone from me this mornings if it's cold your after. Sorry. My full report on this morning's output can be viewed here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

On train again but some interesting ens kicking about in the gefs for n hemisphere setup