OK finally we have a promising chart:

That 552 isopleth over iceland is particularly welcome. Anyway this is -ve NAO (probably), -ve AO which is a vasty superior setup to what we have been seeing previously. It isn't perfect, the Azors high still has a significant influence hence the lack of favorable evolution into low resolution. Its a huge improvement over previous charts, with blocking finally being somewhat more useful than futile. 

The ECM is actually even better:

We have a proper negative NAO here. However it does take somewhat longer to achieve, this is a 240hr chart. Note the ECM has a much weaker azors high, and also high pressure over newfoundland. This combination gives a real chance of cold air eventually arriving in the UK. 

To sum up, a massive upgrade on the two major models. However I urge caution, this is quite different to the pattern that was forecast for the last week or so, perhaps this is an anomoly. 

06Z GFS following the UKMO and the JMA. always a risk when there isn't total cross model agreement. lets wait for the P and the ens before declaring winter over.

Edit: it seems to all depend on the speed at which and whether the initial low pressure system around +102hrs sinks. If it does, HP is allowed to advect over it through Norway. At this point another issue becomes apparent: where in Norway. From what I've seen so far, the more southerly track the HP advects across Norway, the better our chances of it reaching far enough across to Iceland and Greenland to form a block. The GFSP sort of finds a half way house of doing this, watch how both the low sinks and the HP advects across the southern portion of norway. It never quite makes it to Greenland but our secondary low also sinks and allows a weak block to form to induce an Easterly at the start of low res. between +96 and +138 is our ball game now IMO.

I see the latest GFS run (the old skool version) suddenly decided to ramp up the idea for strong winds over England and Wales associated with a low slicing eastwards through the UK for next Thursday . . . now, watch how it does become a night time windstorm event along the Channel coast (including, of course Kent) come the moment.

Of course, it is a long way off in forecasting terms at this point so I'm sure there'll be downgrades over the next few runs (or knowing my luck, upgrades).

I do find that the GFS model seem to have a better understanding of what makes the Atlantic ticks than all the other models - or at least that's what I'm seeing.

As I was commenting this morning elsewhere, a real waterfest ahead with the jet displaced somewhat south under the influence of UK troughing. Over 40mm already at local stations so it will be interesting see where we are by mid-month with continued augmentation of rainfall in areas prone to maritime convection.

Quite like the word Isopleth btw - Well done Q  

The train never gets past Berlin. Some bloke called Ian puts logs on the track

Anyway, bringing this thread back on track (see what I did there), the new fangled GFS isn't showing the same thing as mentioned in my earlier post, but I'm not sure how good the new model is with picking out Atlantic-based trends from afar. As always, the proof will be in the pudding.

London ecm operational going for forty mm in the next seven days. With gfs not far behind.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update and we're asking simply;

Could It Turn Late November?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ 

Very interesting signals at the moment, IMO.

BTW, it's also JMA Friday.

With the jet stream being pushed ever further south courtesy of increasing northern blocking there is progged to be an awful lot of rain in the south in the next 7 days.

Many places in the south have already seen 60-70mm in the first 7 days, another 60-80mm could cause problems once again.

Won't be a popular thing to say in terms of what most of us want to see, but from my eye it looks as though the GFS just took a step towards the UKMO. The initial sequence of low pressures get anchored around Ireland, don't sink far enough for heights to establish in favourable positions and as such, at least for the medium term future, we stay away from potential cold.

EDIT: You can see the difference on the GEM. Although we never actually get the cold, it sends the LP further towards the Bay of Biscay, heights build far more rapidly and we end up with a kind of retrogressing Scandi block - albeit one with the wrong alignment for our taste, but it still illustrates the point...

Have to say to SM that the UKMO, NAVGEM, JMA and now the GFS Op/P all seem to run against the GEM this evening in how far those lows sink south and how rapidly and to what place heights rise to our north. Unless those LPs drop towards Biscay i'm unconvinced at this stage that there will be enough WAA across Norway to get our block in the right place, at least for the medium term. I would LOVE to be proved wrong though.

Oh Sh*te.  That has got 2013-14 written all over it.  FFS!

Yes agree Steve, quick glance says any headlines will be around flooding in the coming days.

The GFS and the UKMO 12z run has UK and Western Europe dominated by Large East NE and N Atlantic PV Maritime Low Pressure especcially Western UK and N Atlantic side.

Above normal rainfall and temperatures about average or a tad above next week and this weekend.

Cold Arctic Low further out to our distant NE just East of Svalbard also dominates that area of NE Norwegian Sea, and a Large Greenland Arctic Cold Air Surface High also dominant there.

If this can extend for rest of November that will allow to North Atlantic Sea get colder, but the Mild air still for Central and NE to E SE Europe if UKMO and GFS are anything to go by!.

Plenty of bands of heavy rain and lots of heavy hail sleet and rain showers are forecasted by the 2 Models I check regularly.

HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND.

😅💦👏.

Already noticing more standing water as the rain continues to pour down. Think we're in for a very wet November for most places with low pressure getting freaky on us long-term 

nah, more 2009 :p

nah, more 2009 :p

interesting ECM - still wants to get a block going, the question as ever is will it be in the right place for us? It has migrated substantially north and eastward on this morning's effort...could still see an undercut though and get better alignment with time

I can. It was a record breaker for site traffic on TWO even if the forum was quiet.  Having said that, the pattern at the moment looks different to this time last year. What I don't want is a Bartlett / zonal Bartlett set up because that not good for the coldies or my site traffic.  

totally agree

last winter was the biggest load of wa**ing  known in history

Last winter was just as rare as 2010 was. 

Meanwhile the US Mid West is likely to have quite a cold snap...

Not sure if it belongs in here, but IanF tweeted earlier this evening "UKMO latest assessment into 15d offers "no sign of any significant cold weather in any output". Beyond: unknown."