I think it looks more like card number three, from the Rawshank series that tests for obsessive compulsiveness....or a squashed tropical butterfly....but that's just me

Impressive Arctic High on the 12z GFSP op with a strong ridge to Greenland from Scandi too. Close to the ECM 00z though not as high in magnitude.

The 12z GFS op doesn't smell the coffee. Never mind - I'd rather have the upgraded version and ECM in agreement than the old version and ECM in agreement 

The 12Z manages to get some height rise over greenland so it is a lot more favourable.

Steve always backs the cold horse. 

Time will tell. 

It will

And yes he does

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-4-1-240.png?12

P4 will do

GEFS12z almost complete:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

You'd be very brave to call an extended cold spell based on these. Yes there interest and the probability of a cold outbreak is higher than average at this time of year. Does that make it the most likely outcome? No.

One point; exactly how useful are North easterlies in late november anyway? 2010 aside is it even cold enough yet to get wintry weather, it would be all rather pointless if we end up with northern blocking with fog, low cloud and sleetiness over the hills. 

Today isn't cold enough of course Q, in 10 days it might be , Northerlies, NElies, Ely can all bring snow in November , if the air is cold enough it can snow

HP building over Greenland nicely

Yeh but for winds that have a high easterly component isn't it far more difficult compared to mid or late winter. And even a small southerly component could be very miserable. This is probably jumping the gun, we need to get the blocking first.

Look how far inland the 552 isopleth is. We actually have heights in excess of 5600m which is promising. My prediction: This ECM run is going to be the wintriest so far, and may cause excitment. 

ECM still very keen on Northern blocking

The cold air is in touching distance of the UK

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH1-192.GIF?08-0

Easterlies arrive

This has so much potential:

A 'slicer' low north of Svalbard, chops the ridge in half and introduces frigidly cold arctic air. 

its about more than the entire last winter could provide Q so it might make things seem a little more seasonal. Anyway, as far as I can see we have a lot of weather including plenty of rain to get through before any of this comes along, and I am not too sure wether it will come to fruition anyway.

And there goes the slicer low:

This is in stark contrast to model runs earlier in the week. This would give a NAO probably of -3 or lower!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH1-216.GIF?08-0

A mad run from ECM, saw nothing like this from the charts last Winter

Its essentially a perfect run, a dominant greenland high, a far southern jet and no Azores high. This sort of setup gives winds that oscillate between North and East, its vastly superior to a siberian or scandi high.

Far too good to be true though

In other news: the dipole on the other side of the arctic keeps getting stronger and stronger. 

Yep, definitely a run to wet my whistle. I think there's more in that run than what I saw the entire winter last year.

Uppers are still too high darn 'sarf, but certainly good enough oop north.

Stunning , look at that block