And that is no different to what the charts are currently showing

No surprise , it is really a statement to shock.

Although potential is always there

Perhaps in absolute measurement terms, but in relation to being mild & perpetually wet/dismal, it was all too common.

A new ridge up to the pole from the opposite side of the hemisphere days 8-10 offers some interest on the 12z ECM longer-term, but in the next 10 days the story is a variant of most model output today, with Atlantic lows becoming slow moving near the UK, despite frequent reinforcements.

Sometimes from this point we see the jet corrected southward and/or more in the way of trough disruption.

Sometimes we don't.

Only time will tell - time best spent building an ark from the looks of things 

Which is pretty much in line with  the potential being talked about Brian. Even if the current atmospherics continue to build re the disrupted vortex and blocking etc. We are still looking at the very end of November or into December for something genuinely wintery.

15 days from now only takes us to the 22nd Nov leaving a the prospect some possibilites starting to show their hands in the final week of the month, although the NWP may well pick up on them chart wise before then.

Accumulated precipitation to day 8 from the GFSP 18z op run. It's a little less than the GFS 18z op run produces.

Unfortunately, convective precipitation continues to make too little progress inland by the looks of things. Still, you can see the consequences of a moisture-laden southwesterly to southerly flow on the eastern flank of slow moving low pressure systems tracking a fair way further south than climatology (i.e. what the LTA suggests should be the track - somewhere close to Scotland).

Here under the 50 mm shown NW of the Isle of Wight, I'm anticipating around 80 mm during the coming week, plus or minus 20 mm depending on how the convective features evolve and where they track... always extremely unpredictable on the local scale, and not much better on the regional scale even at a day's range, let alone numerous days.

"Potential" lol!

Anyway.... Realistically speaking, in the foreseeable, it's looking absolutely miserable. I'm already sick of this constant rainfall and it's only been a few days, and it's looking pretty nailed on this is going to be the pattern for a considerable spell. There is "potential" for it to last well beyond the reliable as well. At least it's not cold, which is something, but it comes at a price, and those in flood prone areas will be getting that horrible feeling again. 

Agreed. It's one of the reasons I am not a big fan of mild weather at this time of year - simply because it is frequently associated with wet and windy conditions. Now if it could be mild, dry and sunny that would be great! 

There are signs down the line of increased northern blocking however that may just keep the wet weather draped across the country for a while. There is no realistic sign of imminent cold weather or wintry conditions but not much sign of the "Bartlett High" scenario either. Just lots of rain and, at time, windy conditions.

Having looked at Radstock area from Met office bookmark then rain is due to fall  for next 10 Days.

So soggy it will be with too much lying on the ground.

asMatt just commented over on the other channel, and credit where credit is due as SM predicted last night, the ECM op delivers a wave 2 style attack on the polar vortex. setting up a juicy block between scandi and greenland by 240. need the others now!

Sick of rain and mild already Matty.

You'd better hope some of the potential you laugh at comes off then. lol

Those flood prone areas would probably prefer a bit of the potential cold and dry as well

  https://twitter.com/MattHugo81   matt hugo said on twitter about signs of the vortex splitting later this month what would this mean for us  sorry if ths is wrong thread

The combination of a negatively tilted trough off Newfoundland and a weak ridge between that and the UK trough seems to be the main difference between ECM and the other models, which all have a continuous stretch of low heights extending to the UK from SW of Greenland.

The result is massive retrogression of the blocking high toward Greenland, a good representation of wave 2 activity as ITSY commented earlier 

No sign of this on the GFS or GFSP for that matter... in fact the 00z GFSP is pretty much the least blocked run I've seen in days, with a considerable reduction relative to the other models even at just 7-8 days range. The GFSP 06z now rolling out has a bit more blocking so perhaps that was just a nasty swing in the model.

Not willing to bet on the ECM outcome at all yet though - too much consensus for the Atlantic jet to remain flat and keep throwing the storms our way. Having said that, it's not at all uncommon for models to correct towards a more amplified flow.

never sick of mild. The rest doesn't make any sense. Potential means bugger all without realisation. As others have said, there is potential for anything to happen. Always will be. On a percentage basis of what's being currently shown, the potential is for more wet weather. 

The 06Z GFS parallel shows amazing northern blocking from the pole to Greenland:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014110806/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

Explosive LP off Newfoundland seems to scupper the very cold air from reaching us on this run; we just need all the building blocks in place and a cold outbreak arrives. A big ask though!

Before then, LP continues to centre just to the west of the UK, so chances are it'll be pretty wet.

The block only serves to keep us very very wet. Oh dear, I thought we'd had our rain fix last winter

bit early to be dusting off the locomotive but the trend at the moment is inexorably headed one way ...............................

We'll see

Couldn't agree more Nick

An absolute delight. Akin to having one's testicles nailed to a coffee table.

If the train has left the station it really isn't at all clear on the GEFS 6z. London: 

Head out to Moscow and the signals are quite mixed:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Moscow_Russia

How anyone can't see the potential for cold towards months end is beyond me, the NH profile is primed for cold being released into the mid latitudes and NW Europe looks to be in a favourable position this time around. The similarities with Novemner 2009 are amazing when viewing the NH charts, it's as rare as hens teeth that I get carried away but barring a complete u-turn the chances for the polar express stopping off at Blighty by the beginning of next month are at least 70:30 in favour. Ramp over!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

i can't seem to make the links work. I was trying to show just how similar the charts from 07 November 2009 where to the 07/11/14. 

Already identified by some posters, but just to reaffirm 00z EC DET (easterly) out at d10 considered outlier by UKMO M-R forecasters; and whilst 'not out of the question' it's considered only 10% PROB, with continuation of unsettled W/SW influence the favoured scenario into next 10-15d. Rain amounts are firmly the forecast and model-watch focus into foreseeable

From Fergie on NW

Hi Ian, my observations of the EPS is that because of their lower resolution they are 24 hours late to the operational party.

I would say 75% odds on favourite for a block to the NE, 50/50 the cold getting to us.... either way it certainly looks a lot better than last year!
S

Our friend Mr Murr's reply to Fergie

Looks a bit better compared to the 6z