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Brian Gaze
11 November 2014 07:34:43

I've spoken to Riccardo about the OPI and wish him and his colleagues good luck. My take on it is the work should be going via a university / research institute in Italy and a paper needs publishing in a scientific journal to detail it. Finally I'm not clear about the involvement of Dr Judah Cohen.


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Devonian
11 November 2014 07:43:31


 


And will be for decades to come is my point. 


Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 


It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 


Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 


In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I pretty much share this view. Look at the OPI forcast and, like almost all other LRF's, it has all the popular bases covered. Cold spells (more of) and mild spells (less of), no dates, some new kind of fancy index, some plausible new 'science',  in other words the usual stuff...


I don't think that LRFing is impossible tho, I think they will improve, but I think it will be a slow process involving throwing more and more computer power at it. Will we ever be able to say, in November, what January the 12th will be like? Probably not.

Solar Cycles
11 November 2014 09:11:45


 


And will be for decades to come is my point. 


Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 


It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 


Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 


In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I agree with your sentiments as I'm equally as dismissive of LRF, but the correlation on the small sample size is excellent using the OPI but it's not infallible and the authors of this index admit this as such. What it is, is  an interesting forecasting tool that no doubt will have it's faults, these same faults tend to occur with values around  zero  when there is no clear signal looking at the past data. 

White Meadows
11 November 2014 11:02:19


It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 


 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


So if the winter turns out cold or very cold will you ram fruitless folly down the throats of those who forecasted mild? There are usually plenty out there.


You can't kick these outfits for trying. Unless they genuinely have no logic or method and just fabricate words in attempt to con the public and gain credibility without believing a word they write.

Joe Bloggs
11 November 2014 12:57:57

Personally I find all the speculation fun and interesting. Sometimes I wonder why people post here if they clearly have no interest whatsoever in teleconnections, long range patterns, new theories etc, but each to their own.

This is a forum attached to a long range weather site after all.

It's all good fun, nobody dies, and I'd rather have access to this kind of material than not. As long as people don't treat it as absolute gospel.


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
11 November 2014 13:12:04


 


And will be for decades to come is my point. 


Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 


It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 


Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 


In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Why?


His guesses aren't any more valid than this one surely?! :D


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Matty H
11 November 2014 18:22:46


 


So if the winter turns out cold or very cold will you ram fruitless folly down the throats of those who forecasted mild? There are usually plenty out there.


You can't kick these outfits for trying. Unless they genuinely have no logic or method and just fabricate words in attempt to con the public and gain credibility without believing a word they write.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


No, you've missed the point. Apart from outfits like C*rbyn I don't knock anyone of them for trying. It's the twits that see a snowy LRF and then get all excited, tell their mates what's in store and then ultimately moan when it doesn't happen, and then usually blame the MetO. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Matty H
11 November 2014 18:23:27


 


Why?


His guesses aren't any more valid than this one surely?! :D


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Private joke ;-)

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Whether Idle
11 November 2014 20:52:08


 


It's the twits that see a snowy LRF and then get all excited, tell their mates what's in store and then ultimately moan when it doesn't happen, and then usually blame the MetO. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


So true, well said

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Quantum
11 November 2014 22:38:13


 


No, you've missed the point. Apart from outfits like C*rbyn I don't knock anyone of them for trying. It's the twits that see a snowy LRF and then get all excited, tell their mates what's in store and then ultimately moan when it doesn't happen, and then usually blame the MetO. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Its so maddening when that happens 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
12 November 2014 14:30:01


 


Its so maddening when that happens 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Don't give up your day job Q, eh?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
12 November 2014 18:21:00

O.P.I.= F.o.T.M.


 


 


Flavour of the Month

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Weatherstu
19 November 2014 20:14:15

Good evening,


I've been researching past winters for quite a while now and I have come up with my thoughts on this winter including the OPI, hence why I am posting this here.


My thoughts for this year will include past instances of the OPI below -1, ENSO, Easterly QBO and historical data including Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, so here goes.


The years I have pinned down from past winters include, 1976/77 - 1986/87 - 2009/10.


2012 came very close, however, the ENSO turned negative (neutral) during the winter period and although the current ENSO is neutral it certainly wont turn to a negative neutral and in fact looks like becoming a weak El Nino.


76/77 Had 2 out of the 3 winter months with below average temps.


86/87 also had 2 months with below ave temps.


09/10 well, all 3 were below .


So one could suggest that we could be in for at least 2 colder than average months during winter based on this, with the AO likely to be negative throughout winter. The NOA will be the player should this also turn negative, although this is far more uncertain. This said here are some NOA scores from the years selected. These are monthly figures:


1976/77


Dec: -1.57   Jan: -1.72    Feb: -1.0


 


1986/87


Dec: 0.83    Jan: -1.85    Feb:  -1.27


 


2009/10


Dec: -1.88   Jan: -1.8    Feb:  -2.69


 


Some very negative NAO scores there so the signals are also good and its possible cold pooling in the Northern Atlantic has a part to play in this. We currently have a cold pool in the Northern Atlantic


 


This year is certainly a far cry from last year and I personally don't expect anything like last years pattern, in fact I fancy quite the opposite. There are already signals suggesting some sort of warming in the stratosphere (wave1) with hints of wave2 and also the NAO is trending negative at month end. However I feel we wont really see our proper cold shot until around the last 3rd of December, but once the pattern changes to cold, it may well be in for a while, perhaps until the end of January or early Febuary. Of course milder intrusions will occur during this period but the cold pattern will be the dominating factor, more likely in the form of a NE/E'ly flow.


 


 


 


 

Tom Oxon
19 November 2014 23:15:27

The beauty of theories based on previous year pattern matching is the year that you release the 'research', you can tailor the logic of the theory to accurately backtest for however long you like. I wonder how the OPI fares with 100 years backtesting - fairly poorly I should imagine. I fear this theory will never become a theorem because the data set and logic are cherry picked. You can also provide wide brackets for verification. I fear the 'OPI' has all the tenants of an aesthetic theory. For what ends, I'm not really sure. However, it is interesting to note that the host doman www.til.it is a transport and logistics company in Italy and therefore not, I would put it, a particularly credilbe URL to locate scientifc research. Indeed, this appears to be rather some form of 'garage' research!

I would be very surprised to see this verify in the course of the next 30-40 years.

S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Quantum
19 November 2014 23:58:52


The beauty of theories based on previous year pattern matching is the year that you release the 'research', you can tailor the logic of the theory to accurately backtest for however long you like. I wonder how the OPI fares with 100 years backtesting - fairly poorly I should imagine. I fear this theory will never become a theorem because the data set and logic are cherry picked. You can also provide wide brackets for verification. I fear the 'OPI' has all the tenants of an aesthetic theory. For what ends, I'm not really sure. However, it is interesting to note that the host doman www.til.it is a transport and logistics company in Italy and therefore not, I would put it, a particularly credilbe URL to locate scientifc research. Indeed, this appears to be rather some form of 'garage' research!

I would be very surprised to see this verify in the course of the next 30-40 years.


Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 


This sort of thing has occurred to me aswell, I must say I was very skeptical of the OPI when I first heard about it. However, I did check the names of the academics involved and it does seem to check out; at the very least it isn't a bunch of amateurs. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
some faraway beach
20 November 2014 09:16:36


The beauty of theories based on previous year pattern matching is the year that you release the 'research', you can tailor the logic of the theory to accurately backtest for however long you like. I wonder how the OPI fares with 100 years backtesting - fairly poorly I should imagine. I fear this theory will never become a theorem because the data set and logic are cherry picked. You can also provide wide brackets for verification. I fear the 'OPI' has all the tenants of an aesthetic theory. For what ends, I'm not really sure. However, it is interesting to note that the host doman www.til.it is a transport and logistics company in Italy and therefore not, I would put it, a particularly credilbe URL to locate scientifc research. Indeed, this appears to be rather some form of 'garage' research!

I would be very surprised to see this verify in the course of the next 30-40 years.


Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 


 


Do these tenants rent the site then? (Tenets/tenants)


The work is in peer review, hence the absence from the public domain of details of the hypothesized mechanism to which the authors ascribe the Oct./winter correlation.


Here is the posting from the authors last year where they explained how they had to withdraw the downloadable research paper, as it had gone into peer review with a view to publication.


http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150683-opi-october-pattern-index.html


Hence why the domain is not an "official" academic site, but the online equivalent of a sketch on the back of an envelope.


They left us with this extract from the first page of the paper, which explains the correlations, but not, of course, the calculations:


http://www.meteonetwork.it/cronaca-meteo/october-pattern-index-opi-un-nuovo-indice-altamente-predittivo-stagione-invernale


If you're going to have a go at long-range weather outlooks in general, then you have to rely on hindcasting of some kind, as the complexities of all the inputs, outputs and interactions which determine the weather make physical cause-and-effect forecasting impossible. You only have to look at the results from seasonal forecasts based on the outcomes of ensembles of weather models to see that.


So you look for analogues, pattern matches or broad variations from the past and see whether they fit. If they do, then you propose a mechanism to explain them. Then you hope to live for a few hundred years for enough results to come in to see whether you're on the right lines.


So there's always going to be an amateurish and fun element to long-range ideas on weather or climate. There aren't going to be any "theorems", as you put it, though an awful lot of "scientists" out there seem to claim to have them. But that doesn't stop it being a legitimate area of interest imo, as long as people don't treat the ideas put forward as cast-iron scientific theories.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Solar Cycles
20 November 2014 21:00:08


 


This sort of thing has occurred to me aswell, I must say I was very skeptical of the OPI when I first heard about it. However, I did check the names of the academics involved and it does seem to check out; at the very least it isn't a bunch of amateurs. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Indeed Quantum, I too was very sceptical last year when I stumbled across this ( and still remain a tad sceptical ) but the correlation looks good but there are other factors for me which can override the AO signal as you yourself have highlighted.

Richard K
21 November 2014 07:12:49


 


Do these tenants rent the site then? (Tenets/tenants)


The work is in peer review, hence the absence from the public domain of details of the hypothesized mechanism to which the authors ascribe the Oct./winter correlation.


Here is the posting from the authors last year where they explained how they had to withdraw the downloadable research paper, as it had gone into peer review with a view to publication.


http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150683-opi-october-pattern-index.html


Hence why the domain is not an "official" academic site, but the online equivalent of a sketch on the back of an envelope.


They left us with this extract from the first page of the paper, which explains the correlations, but not, of course, the calculations:


http://www.meteonetwork.it/cronaca-meteo/october-pattern-index-opi-un-nuovo-indice-altamente-predittivo-stagione-invernale


If you're going to have a go at long-range weather outlooks in general, then you have to rely on hindcasting of some kind, as the complexities of all the inputs, outputs and interactions which determine the weather make physical cause-and-effect forecasting impossible. You only have to look at the results from seasonal forecasts based on the outcomes of ensembles of weather models to see that.


So you look for analogues, pattern matches or broad variations from the past and see whether they fit. If they do, then you propose a mechanism to explain them. Then you hope to live for a few hundred years for enough results to come in to see whether you're on the right lines.


So there's always going to be an amateurish and fun element to long-range ideas on weather or climate. There aren't going to be any "theorems", as you put it, though an awful lot of "scientists" out there seem to claim to have them. But that doesn't stop it being a legitimate area of interest imo, as long as people don't treat the ideas put forward as cast-iron scientific theories.


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Thanks that's a good post. Personally I think this method has good promise for predicting the AO, although that is still a significant step away from predicting what kind of winter we will have.

Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Solar Cycles
21 November 2014 22:22:08
Brian Gaze
21 November 2014 22:43:07

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Looks like a continental easterly flow dominating. We've not had that type of winter for a long time.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
21 November 2014 23:02:37


 


Looks like a continental easterly flow dominating. We've not had that type of winter for a long time.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think the anomaly is for a semi permanent block to our E/NE, like you say it's been quite a while since we've seen such a set up. I suppose a lot will depend on how strong the jet is coming out of the eastern seaboard but with such a block in place over such a period of time the jet should be well to our South, if of course this forecast verifys.

Gooner
22 November 2014 09:11:29

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Very similar to the BCC forecast

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


roger63
22 November 2014 11:17:19

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


If you look carefully Scandinavia,E Europe and C Europe have negative temp anomalies.However Scotland an western Spain Portugal are positive.


It looks like will be right on the edge of the HP influence.With HP to the east there is always the risk that we remain in the nomansland between the Atlantic depressions and the cold air to the east.That strikes me as the likeliest outcome rather than perpetual  easterlies.

Solar Cycles
22 November 2014 11:58:10


 


If you look carefully Scandinavia,E Europe and C Europe have negative temp anomalies.However Scotland an western Spain Portugal are positive.


It looks like will be right on the edge of the HP influence.With HP to the east there is always the risk that we remain in the nomansland between the Atlantic depressions and the cold air to the east.That strikes me as the likeliest outcome rather than perpetual  easterlies.


Originally Posted by: roger63 

Thats why I referred to it as semi permanent block as I believe we will be under the influence of the Atlantic at times with the ebbing and flowing of the block to our East. Also parts of Scotland rarely do well out these set ups apart from the Eastern side that is so the anomaly showing will be correct if it pans out like that.

some faraway beach
30 November 2014 19:05:13


I've spoken to Riccardo about the OPI and wish him and his colleagues good luck. My take on it is the work should be going via a university / research institute in Italy and a paper needs publishing in a scientific journal to detail it. Finally I'm not clear about the involvement of Dr Judah Cohen.


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Cohen's words:


You certainly have done your homework if you know that I met with the Italian scientists that are developing the OPI. For now there isn’t much for me to say. The idea is interesting but still needs to be vetted and I hope that we can collaborate on this potentially significant advancement in seasonal prediction.


http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1


It's an interesting interview, in which (I think) he explains how the polar low which has appeared over NW Asia this month was not an event he expected on the basis of the rapid advance of snow cover in October, and one which has resulted in restricting both the expansion of the Siberian high and wave activity into the stratosphere:


The deep polar low in Northwestern Asia that developed in November has interfered with the expansion of the Siberian high.  The WAFz was active in November but I believe that it would have been even more active had the polar low not formed in that unusual location.


 So not exactly winter's over, but perhaps a good test of the OPI as a forecasting tool.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
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