Tiny short wave being picked up on 6zgfs to our n/e does make quite a bit off difference tempting also udercut from the s/w

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1

I think it's a case of enjoying, or rather, making the most of the high-pressure theme as shown in nearly the entire length of the hi-res time frame (for the next 7 to 10 days - a shame it isn't July!) and let the low res end of the model outputs worry about what it's going to do next, even though they are showing the Atlantic-based stuff trying to charge back in (a long way off in forecasting terms and probably the models going into default mode).

There is significant variance in the GEFS relatively early on but none of the solutions look particularly cold.

It's all a far cry from when I was dubbed The Thinking Man's Gary Sarre.

I think as you get older and cold lose's it appeal you start to have less invested in cold weather.

Ian Fergusson over on the other "channel" says things are "finely balanced"

I think that's the right way to sum up things. 

[quote=Medlock Vale Weather;644622]

Ian Fergusson over on the other "channel" says things are "finely balanced"

I think that's the right way to sum up things. 

[/quote

GFS 06h ENS reflect that fine balance.144h and 240 h Atlantic :Anticyclonic is 50:50 .As Brian says none of the options looks particularly cold.

GFS12z out to 180 hours is looking pretty mild.

The GFSP is running 2 hours late today and probably won't appear on TWO.  

Spot on

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=360&code=16&mode=0&carte=0

Slight majority in 12h ensembles for anticyclonic -but few as cold as this little beauty!

GEFS12z are milder than the 6z suite but with a couple of colder options tucked in. As a punt I'd not be surprised if we end up with some notably mild weather in the next couple of weeks. Sahara vortex?

*its down at the moment Roger but i do like the shape on the Graph

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

December will have to be mighty cold to avoid the CET annual record being obliterated.  The second half of November appears to have the potential for some Saharan air to bathe our shores again, as you indicate Brian.  The yellows and oranges of warm upper air have lingered so far into the autumn and the vagaries of the weather have failed to allow an arctic or Siberian or even Atlantic blast to clear the warm air back to the Med or North Africa.  We desperately need the air over whole of western Europe to be Replaced from the north just so some kind of normal service can be resumed.  Until the reset button is effectively pressed, in much the way that Bertha did in summer, we seem condemned to continuing mild weather. IMHO the first cold wave (assuming we get one this winter) will effectively be used just getting the atmosphere in our neck of the woods back to normal.

WI

after reading terry scholeys forecast and others on other sites, its looking mild/very mild next week,  looking cloudy but dry in my postcode this week, dont think we will see anything of real cold or snow untill new year me think according to forecasters forecasts suits me fine i can get out and work  the year before last in january 7:30am cleaning shop windows -9 yes minus 9 cold water, people who work outside shows the men amongst the boys,i work in all weathers  im a window cleaner i love it,

Well, the Met Office seems to be revising its short/medium term forecast constantly - the BBC site is showing maximum of 8C and min of 5C for end of next week, and it was only 8C outside my office this afternoon!! That's about 4 degrees cooler than the outlook just 2 days ago! 

That is exceptionally warm for November Polar Low but it looks as though the air is sourced from the S Atlantic on that chart with a SW wind as opposed to a S wind.  I agree with Gandalf on this one - I believe you can only get exceptional warmth at this time of year from a SW'ly steering up warmth from the S Atlantic.

Anyway, back on topic - models looking interesting in terms of future cold prospects, and it could not be any more different than this time last year.

Hopefully we'll get some winter cold this year.

David, Northallerton

GFS ENS 12Z P16 @348 is a run of beauty. We can but dream. 

GFS18z 10C colder on Sunday in the south than GFS12z. Can't remember seeing such a huge change from run to run at this range. 

I agree Brian.  Looking at the ensembles, theres a massive range of scenarios on the table at the moment

Theres good agreement for the next 3 days - after that it goes Pete Tong.  

Air pressure

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141117/12/prmslCheshire.png 

850 temps

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141117/12/t850Cheshire.png

I think the overall trend will be for higher pressure, and cooler temperatures - with lighter winds leading to frost in places.  Funny really, when you consider the detour the models have taken to arrive at what is fairly typical weather for this time f year.  

Personally i wouldnt mind a bit of fog at the moment for some seasonal photography.

A very stark difference!...  Reminds me of a day (February 1992 I believe) when it was forecast the night before to be 11c the next day.... the max turned out to be only 3c.... 8c in 12 hours!... 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-19-1-348.png?18

You wouldn't be too unhappy with that

Yeh and you have that 970mb slicer low over Noya Zemyla waiting to release the greenie. Of course it'l never happen. I can't see any indication that cold weather is on the way 

Wrong thread but kinda ties in with the model output - the metoffice have now mentioned the possibility of a pertiod of below average temperature. Also a mention of snow for higher grounds in north.

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Nov 2014 to Monday 1 Dec 2014:
Western parts of the UK should see some spells of heavy rain and strong winds through the weekend, with the east generally staying drier, although a little rain is likely to spread eastwards at times. The unsettled weather is most likely to continue into next week over western parts with spells of rain spreading in from the Atlantic. Eastern parts will continue to see the best of any drier and brighter weather, however rain is still likely here at times. Temperatures will mostly be around average for the time of year, although they may be a little below average in the east during the start of next week with an increased chance of frost and fog overnight.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 2 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 16 Dec 2014:
The most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and windy weather to affect western parts of the UK. Spells of rain are likely further east too but the best of the dry weather is expected here. Temperatures are generally expected to be around or a little above average for the time of year, although this does not preclude the possibility of a few colder spells which are likely during any quieter periods of weather. There is a chance of some overnight and morning mist or fog in places, and some patchy frost too - this may be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.