Surprising surface temperatures being forecast considering the continental flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

The ECM 00z brings in some chilly surface air to later this week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

Its not mild that's for sure.

which ones?  All I've seen is mid Atlantic trough ?????

even more confused SC as on a saturday, the noaa cpc are a direct copy of naefs.  there has been no ens output with an atlantic ridge anomoly in week 2. the idea of an atlantic ridge is a new theme.

london ecm ens look continentally blocked - chilly, calm and dry.

Models in turmoil post 168 = Pattern change.

Something is brewing.  

No sign of any proper northern blocking though. That Greenie high remains as elusive as ever. Perhaps the best we can hope for is the Murr sausage as shown by the ECM op

GEFS 6z for London. They are quite a mixed bunch but on balance a westerly component in the flow remains the favoured outcome through the day 8 to 16 period.

Should be better now although there are still a couple of scenarios where images can appear stretched on mobile / tablets.

interesting corrections in high res on the 12Z with hp landing in scandi and being reinforced through mid atlantic HP cells. the question is whether the high will rise up further north or sink into a scurasian high (new word I think). Plenty of time for either, but certainly interesting nonetheless.

EDIT: BIG correction northwards, Europe goes cold and by +216 we look very well placed for a cold Easterly. What is important isn't the frames at that point but the fact that it all transpires through changes in high res within the t+180 timeframe.

The cold never actually makes it to anywhere but the North of Scotland, but we see the possibility if that high bubbles up enough. The Parallel looks to have taken a different route though, so i'd suggest another exciting evening of looking out for the ens and the ECM. Can't say we aren't seeing another bite at the cherry though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif

Single digits just across the water

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

Decent block and much lower temps for the UK

The 00z (left-hand) had a shortwave low to the NW of the UK, and the 06z persisted with this, but it has been adjusted south and weakened on the 12z (right-hand).

Instead of tracking NE then E and riding over the latter HP cell, forcing it south, the shortwave is absorbed back into the cut-off low west of Iberia (such an incredibly frequent feature this year), which means it actually supports the HP cell rather than interfering with it. This evolution also allows the amplified ridge west of the UK to merge more quickly with the blocking high. The net result is a large step NW in the positioning of the blocking high by day 8:

This is a great example of how relatively small adjustments can have large impacts on conditions a few days later on.

The run goes on to bring a chilly SE'rly for a few days, as heavily mixed-out Arctic air circulates around from the eastern flank of the high.

Then the Atlantic attacks - but because of the position and strength of the block, the storms show a strong tendency to slide SE, with fronts arriving from the SW rather than W or NW.

This raises the possibility of more pronounced easterly incursions if the block is adjusted much further west in future runs. Now, it is possible to get a cold continental feed adequate for producing low-level snow events via a mid-latitude block... but the problem is, that usually occurs later in winter rather than earlier. This is because you don't tend to see enough of a low-level cold pool involved to overcome the sort of sea surface temperatures usually present in late November and often well into December.

So although westward adjustments are a common occurrence when the models are dealing with blocking highs to our east, I'm not anticipating much in the way of low-level snow from the east within the next fortnight or so - raw, damp days under persistent low cloud seem the greater risk beyond this coming week.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-0-264.png?12

A bit colder from the Control

Compared to the other 2 operational models described above (GFS & UKMO-GM), the ECMWF does the best in predicting mid/upper tropospheric heights during the colder part of the year(such as October through April). The ECMWF tends to perform quite well in predicting amplitudes of planetary-scale regimes such as the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA). This model can also perform outstandingly during low to high planetary-scale wavenumber transition events, and northern hemispheric-scale regime transition
.Outperforms the other medium-range forecast models during shallow cold air situations."
(NB: The citation re UKMO-GM was written prior to operational introduction of ENDGAME).          

From Fergie in a reply to a poster claiming ECM has a bias .

The GFSP 12z is less favourable if you're hoping for colder conditions.

GFS ensembles show Anticyclonic:Atlantic flow ratio of 60:40 at 144h and 240h and 40:60 at 360h.By no means victory for the anticyclonic flow. at this stage.

METO at 144h and the METO forecast seem to tip the Atlantic way

But at least there is hope of something more seasonal.The first frost of the Autumn would be nice!

ECM brings in the blowtorch:

Followed by the pizza slice:

I'm happy!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

nothing more really than seasonal for the next week or so with cold air well to the east.

perhaps a tad +ve for most of Europe.

An interesting run from ECM, especially the late stages. Coldies will be pleased.

ECM may have drawn the winning numbers tonight but statistically the chances of the GFS or GFSP being the lucky winner are almost as high. I sometimes think people don't realise the statistical differences between the main global models are small.

You'd get the best part of 18C or more with the likes of that. :-)