James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said weather models show volcanic activity in Iceland earlier in the year will compound the unfolding winter horror story.

He said sulphur dioxide thrown into the atmosphere will block the little sunlight expected triggering an ALMOST NUCLEAR WINTER.'

That particular gem caught my eye . . . . oh dear

 

I love when they do a post mortom they will quote weather conditions on Ben nevis etc.

 

ie: "Conditions were at one point minus 15*c with a strong 110mph wind. As we predicted."

 

Well no sh!t sherlock.  

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Met Office Update:

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Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 2 Dec 2014 to Thursday 11 Dec 2014:

Cloud and patchy rain in southeast will clear during Tuesday with brighter, colder conditions following from the northwest. Showers will affect northwestern parts where it will be windy with snow over the hills. Frost and fog patches overnight. Thereafter, pressure will build from the west bringing a period of largely settled weather with variable cloud and sunny spells with the risk of frost and fog patches forming by night. However, northwestern parts will be windier with occasional rain, which may extend further southeast as a weakening feature around Thursday. Temperatures often below average and rather cold at times, especially where fog lingers, but somewhat milder in the far northwest. Into the week after next, northwestern parts are likely to see the most unsettled conditions with southeastern areas remaining more settled.

UK Outlook for Friday 12 Dec 2014 to Friday 26 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places. There is also a chance of some snow on higher ground in the north.

Updated at: 0317 on Fri 28 Nov 2014

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For those of us still learning ( ensemble forecasting ) and wanna little behind the scene look at the beeb, they have done a small little video...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30235229

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Not sure if I'm the Gavin you would to comment, but I'll give my two-pennith anyway...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My winter forecast is out Monday so you'll find out if I agree then.

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Worst storm in 30 years hit Brisbane yesterday

Hailstones the size of golf balls, winds of 85mph and 90,000 homes without power

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-30240930

Look forward to it! :-)

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None other than Michael fish is turning on the Polegate lights this afternoon! (Gets ironic comedy jumper out)

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30268791

 

Much more seasonal from the Beeb

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BBC MO: - Still a bit of uncertainty come the end.

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Monday 1 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary


Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Mother Nature bid a fond farewell to the third warmest autumn on record over the weekend with lengthy spells of sunshine on Sunday, the last day of the season. Winter has now just set foot on our doors and it heralds a colder feel to our day to day lives. Fog, frosts, cold winds, occasional milder moments and even a peppering of snow over higher ground will make for an interesting few weeks as the ever complex UK weather continues to keep us on our forecasting toes.


Monday 1 December—Sunday 7 December

It really is time for the winter woollies.

If we had to wrap this week up in a headline, it would be 'turning colder'. The last few weeks have been generally mild and while temperatures will gently slide away to average or a little below average, it will certainly feel cold when compared to the mild days of autumn. Sunshine and rainfall will be below average across southern areas but northern areas rainfall should be around average .

During Monday and Monday night, a front will edge into north-western areas, bringing outbreaks of rain. As the front moves into south-eastern parts during Tuesday, it will largely run out of steam and become patchy in nature albeit with plenty of cloud lingering. It will leave clearer skies in north-western areas and the chance of wintry showers over the higher ground in Scotland; icy stretches will also be a risk.

Tuesday and Wednesday can be broadly described as a north-west south-east divide. South-eastern areas retain extensive cloud with the risk of patchy drizzle, along with a brisk north-easterly wind, making it feel very chilly. North-western areas are likely to see more sunshine during the day but with frosty conditions likely during the overnight period, although the Northern Isles are likely to escape the frost with windy conditions in its place.

Thursday into Friday show signs of a cold plunge of air arriving into northern areas. As it stands, we are not sure how far south this will reach. However, what we do know is that we are likely to see wintry showers pepping the far north-western areas, particularly over high ground and whilst we might see more in the way of sunshine in general, it will be tempered by a particularly nippy wind. These conditions are likely to last through to the weekend.


Monday 8 December—Sunday 14 December

High or Low - What does it all mean?

As the second week of December approaches, a north-south divide is the mostly likely scenario at the moment. Southern areas are likely to see high pressure influence the weather whereas northern areas are likely to see low pressure predominating. What does this mean? High pressure during the winter time usually implies more frequent occurrences of frosts and fog, below average rainfall and sunshine open to question as cloud often gets 'stuck' over the UK in winter. Northern areas will see more day to day variation in weather. Rain and wintry showers are likely to move quickly through, giving more varied temperatures, especially during the quieter periods seen between any frontal systems.


Monday 15 December—Sunday 28 December

What will Santa be wearing?

The big question on everyone's lips is 'will it be a white Christmas?'. If I had the answer to that, I would have bet on it a long time ago! While we do not know the weather will be on a day to day basis this far out, we can gauge some signals from long term computer models. Currently, those models signal that there is no one favoured type of weather expected. To expand on this a little more, we are not expecting long periods of high pressure nor are we expecting just low pressure. However, there are some signs that a more unsettled picture is on the cards bringing wet and windy conditions at times along with some colder and settled periods in between the various weather fronts that will move through.

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Hmmmm

Just watched weather view with John Hammond on BBC. Spoke briefly about weather for the rest of this week. Then... right at the end a real teaser.... you know the kind, where you can tell there is something of interest in the Met - synoptics get shown with blue wind arrows.

a setup of LP to our Northeast introducing much colder air with an increased risk of snow.. more so than what we will see this week....

Unusual for the Beeb to speak of such things a week out...

make of that what you will...

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An interesting extended outlook on the BBC with John Hammond just now.

Chilly and frosty in coming days. Beyond then a couple of weather systems  interspersed with cool and showery conditions then becoming very unsettled with alternating mild and cold conditions. 

He finished by suggesting that it will be cold enough for, and I quote, "quite a bit of snow" in northern parts of the UK. 

It certainly doesn't look like a boring outlook!

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As expected things turning quite a bit more seasonal now and looking good for those in Scotland next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30303588

Online weather: - This can't be correct...anyone spot the flaw in this forecast? Hint: read under Thursday:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&DAY=20141203

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European Summary - December 03, 2014


Cold for many

Rain in south

Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 3rd December 2014
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Cold through much of eastern and central Europe, rain to the south

Wednesday
Cloud and some outbreaks of rain through Spain and Portugal today. There cou;d be some heavy rain in southern Spain with a few thunderstorms here. Scattered showers in the Balearics, but heavier and more persistent showers or rain for Italy. Mild in Greece and Turkey with good spells of sunshine here.
Mainly dry in France with some bright or sunny spells here, but feeling cool. Dry too in the Low Countries and Germany with some sunny spells. Fair in Switzerland, Hungary and Austria too with sunny spells here, but feeling cool for most. Staying fair in Poland and for western Russia as well.
A fair day through the UK and Ireland as well as Denmark. Fair too in southern Sweden and the Baltic States and staying dry here. A windier day through Finland with cloud and some sleet here. Windy for the north of Sweden and Norway with more cloud and some rain and snow.

Thursday
Showers and some cloud across southern Spain today, with some sunshine and mainly dry weather in Portugal. Heavy showers affecting eastern Spain and the Balearics, with some fo these heavy showers troubling south coasts of France. Mainly fair in much of Italy, but some showers in the northwest. Dry for Greece with sunny spells, but some heavy showers over western Turkey.
Some showers and cloud in northwest France, but dry for the rest of the country, although chilly. Cold for the Low Countries, Germany and Poland with largely dry weather here. Some snow flurries in Austria and Hungary as well as southwest England.
Dry and cold again through Denmark and Norway as well as most of Sweden. The Baltic States will be staying cold but mostly dry. Some cloud in Finland where it is going to cold once again too.

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Sounds good Michael.

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its a boring outlook for me where i am, i need it coming in from the east, make me laugh papers today britain freezes and winter blast bites what a load of tosh, , up north maybe not south, its a bit chilly here , big deal,, im a window cleaner tho 2010 was a bit nippy,

Looking good where I am though.

lucky sod hopefully the tables might turn,  tho enjoy

 

I assume you mean the SW England part. Well the BBC forecast for Par (South Cornwall) has snow flurries Thursday night into Friday.

I cannot see it happening but its being forecast.

 

Andrew