BBC weather outlook: - A bit vague around Christmas!


Monday 8 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary


Jack Frost comes back with a bite.

We're now well and truly in winter and the temperatures seem to have responded accordingly; looking back through a week of daily extremes the -6.8C particularly stands out that was recorded at RAF Benson, Oxfordshire. The month ahead doesn't look like it's going to be bucking the trend of extremes either with plenty more chaotic weather in the forecast.


Monday 8 December—Sunday 14 December

Wild weather on the horizon.

A frosty and wintry start to the week is expected. Monday is set for sunshine and showers; a brisk north-westerly wind will push showers in from the Atlantic. These showers will have a distinct wintry flavour over the higher ground of northern Britain - accumulations here starting to mount up - 2-5cm possible above 200m.

Tuesday is set to see the weather turn wetter and windier with low pressure arriving from the west. A band of rain will progressively push through from the northwest to all; however it could be the strengthening wind that will be more noticeable as we head into Wednesday. Early weather warnings have already been issued for this on Wednesday - gusts over northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland between 60 and 70mph, perhaps in exposure up to 80mph. Mix this wind with plenty of showers rattling in, again wintry above 200m, gives a recipe for some pretty atrocious conditions.

Although conditions look to be easing slightly on Thursday it could only be a temporary respite with more wet and windy weather arriving through Thursday night. This does need closely watching though as it has a fairly large amount of uncertainty associated with its development at the present stage - the good news is though that it should whistle through very quickly leaving a showery picture for Friday but feeling rather cold.


Monday 15 December—Sunday 21 December

Remaining unsettled for the UK.

Moving further ahead in the forecast it looks as though we keep the same weather pattern with areas of low pressure rattling in from the Atlantic. Typically in this type of set up northern and western areas of Britain tend to take the brunt of the wet and windy weather as low pressure centres track towards the east whilst southern and eastern areas favour better for drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures across the UK during this period are likely to be around the seasonal norm; though there will be fluctuations around this particularly when bands of rain cross the country.


Monday 22 December—Sunday 4 January

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas.

Perhaps it will help to first define what a white Christmas actually is... Well a Christmas can be classed as white if one solitary snowflake falls from the sky on December 25th. This is actually more likely than not to happen - it has happened on 38 of the last 53 years. However, seeing a blanket of snow is much rarer; happening on only four of the last 53 years.

What about this Christmas? At this early stage it looks like an unsettled regime is likely to continue to dominate towards the end of December with areas of low pressure likely to bring in bands of rain and strong winds interspersed with more showery but brighter conditions. So, for now, keep a close eye on the forecast as we approach Christmas Day.

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that's different... because they also have nice salad recipes by Nigel, and love Apple.

 

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Play the game. Play the game... as my boss at one of the largest mobile phone networks used to tell me!  Keeps the interest going. 

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Tomorrow's Mirror headlines a "Weather Bomb".

That's a new one on me!

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/542080937312681985/photo/1

 

and a Big Freeze Alert in (where else?) the Express

 

http://www.politicshome.com/timthumb.php?w=578&src=/images/1.1.Front_Pages/express_091214.jpg

 

 

Intriguing aspect of BBC local forecast for south coast - highest temperature in the next 24 hours will be around midnight at 10-12 C, with 5-6 C either side. Obviously a narrow warm sector slipping through.

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Classic FM talking about the 'weather bomb' this morning. 

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And on Smooth Xmas 

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So the Exeter FAX charts were shown on the BBC 10.30 forecast...

I've never seen that before.

I have to say the BBC forecasts are bloody brilliant these days - a far, far cry from when these graphics were first introduced.

Really, really impressed.

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http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/545366/Storm-weather-UK-forecast-hurricane-winds-blizzards-hits-Atlantic

I could pull this apart quite easily

Not just the south of the UK very mild - even Saint Petersburg is at +6c and most of Europe is above freezing. Including Scandinavian cities like Oslo and Stockholm at +4C.

The Alps are a little snow-starved too - I know of some people going skiing next week and they maybe disappointed - in fact the best chance for snow/snowiest place in Europe would be Scotland by the looks of it.

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I saw this, but I find somewhat amusing that the weather is often so boring in the northeast that something as common as this should make headlines in the local.

 

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/newcastle-weather-your-pictures-apocalyptic-8256412

The MetO have - but we can be sure the media will ignore the facts when scary fiction is more fun!

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/12/10/a-closer-look-at-weather-bombs/

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btw, for those who have not yet seen it, there is a link to he-who-shall-not-be-named's forecast for the 12-16 December on my blog today. 

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/10th-december-todays-news-strong-storm.html

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Hilarious. Watch as he tries to twist the snow on high ground this week into a "success" for that forecast.

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The met have lowered their warnings for Friday to include more of merseyside and manchester and away from scotland for any snow.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1418342400®ionName=nw 

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Have the met picked up the pattern change in the new year?. It's a start anyway

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Dec 2014 to Thursday 8 Jan 2015:
The last week of December will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although the is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this. Temperatures are expected be around average for the time of year, the may turn colder than normal in the New Year.

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LOL, BBC running a 'Weather Bomb Live'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-30382579

Cheering to see most of the comments sent in from Scotland are along the lines of "this is a standard winter storm, nothing out the ordinary"

 

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It's farcical. On the other hand I doubt you'll hear too many complaints (other than hypocritical ones) from forecasting agencies and owners of weather web sites. The truth is this sort of coverage turns on the traffic taps to 11. Given that most of us are sitting under clear blue skies, temperatures of +7C (45F), an odd stronger gust of wind, and little prospect of snow; it's not something to be sniffed at.

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I think this hyper-ventilating over this sort of event has become a joke by the media. In some terms the Beeb are as bad as the Express sometimes making news out of something which is totally normal for to happen in Northern and Western Scotland at least a couple of times a winter season. It could be a slow news day or more likely they sent there reporters there so now have to justify their usage. Yes it may be a trifle unusual to have 40-50ft waves crashing into the outer Hebrides but I'm sure they're used to it. The fact that 90% of the UK is in a windy and very average Winter's Day seem to have passed the media by. In fact here in the South there has been hardly enough wind to raise an eyebrow so far today and precious few showers too here.

Never mind there is another windy day expected on Thursday night into Friday with more hype over gale force winds and heavy rain and some snow in places for the media to frenzy over.

On visiting my elderly Mum in the Nursing Home this morning the staff there were telling the residents about the expected long period of snow and ice on the back of this storm today and disbelieved me when I said that it was a load of rubbish. They're reply was "well it says so in the papers". I concluded "I rest my case".

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I winced when I saw the coverage. It only serves to cement the prevailing public view that forecasters (read the Met Office) don't have a clue what the weather will be, when, of course, they have been pretty much bang on.

Of course their presenters ramp up of the "weather bomb" story does not help them to get the reality of what is a "nothing to see here move along now" event across to the public, who tend to see the headline and pay little attention to the details.

It reminds me of Dec 2011 when the BBC ran a live page to cover the first snowfall of the winter only to abandon it just after noon when the realization dawned that there was no snow to report on, something that would have been obvious to them had they bothered to actually watch their own weather forecasts!

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It's been a nice winters day here. With the sunshine and stiff wind even managed to get some washing dry on the line - Can't be bad in December.

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I agree completely, Brian. Yes, today's weather hasn't been exactly pleasant but it's hardly been life threatening! There was a time when the weather really had to be exceptionally bad (think of the October 1987 storm for instance) before it got much if any coverage in mainstream news bulletins.

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We had a moderate breeze and some cloud at times!   

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I just noticed that too. #EyebrowRaised 

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It may not have affected the majority but I think has certainly warranted the coverage. I could barely stand vertical in the wind, my car was blown over the centre line, I lost power intermittently, schools were closed and major travel disruption in Scotland (the M8 was closed in one direction). I have never encountered so much "thunder snow" in a 24 hr period which is worth reporting in itself and presumably a reflection on the so called "bomb"- which personally I felt was quite apt. It felt like Armageddon or an apocalypse around 9am on the West cost of Scotland this morning....

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