Loving the new charts Brian.

Interesting to note that 3 or 4 ensemble members in the GEFS, plus the Op and the Control send some notable HP over Eastern Canada/NE USA which looks like edging towards Greenland. Need some binoculars to see it but worth pinning for further runs IMO.

Huffffff.... that chart on the left is so depressing.  .

Far out  at 360h  GFS has some notherlies and easterlies in the ENS- though still in the minotity

Interesting ECM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Similar to UKMO and GEM

Its a toppler, but more potent than the 00z run

Nice ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014112812/ECH1-168.GIF?28-0

Could it be on to something or has it been on the Christmas sherry 

It is so different to the 00Z OP it has to be treated with more caution than usual - in other words truck loads.
Still, it adds some interest to the weekends model watching.

yes lovely ECM tonight. With this and the latest ECM  32 dayer it's been a good day for the coldies.

Woohoo, topplertastic. 

It could be worse and quite frankly I am desperate for some sunshine now so  the next few days (post tomorrow) with a flow from a westerly quarter will be very welcome. 

The ECM and UKMO do show some support for each other but as Neil says it should be treated with a lot of caution give the big changes from this morning. (Also it looks like a rather brief affair at first glance)

A large step in the right direction away from non-descript mild tedium

It might not that be that brief, IF it transpired. A new Scandinavian high builds by the end of the run:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Some minor amplification in the ECM12Z, which is an upgrade of the rather trivial amplification on the 0Z. It flattens very quickly though; is it a trend setter?

The past few ECM runs have been adding a bit more amplification to the mid-Atlantic ridge each time round, and GEM's past two runs have illustrated the sort of setup that can easily occur as a result, so I'm not surprised to see such output from the ECM 12z op run.

UKMO joined the amplification party with its 120 and 144 hour charts, which is promising.

Unfortunately JMA is not in such mood and has sided with GFS on that aspect. Despite very low heights to our NW as a result, it still produces a mid-latitude block to our east by day 8, something it seems to be obsessed with trying to do these days.

Tricky to assess really.

Attempting to anticipate the right way forward, you might as well toss a coin in these situations where two different solutions have stood their ground without either trending towards the other.

So instead I'm going to enjoy myself and look at the final two ECM 12z op run charts, even imagining what the surface detail might be like:

This looks like some marginal conditions for snow by day away from high ground, but more promising by night IF there's much precipitation about. Eastern coasts could see a lot of showers but they could struggle to fall as snow until the overnight period and even then probably not until a number of miles inland.

How far inland the showers get is hard to say - it depends on how much moisture is entrained, just how rapidly the air cools with increasing height and so on. Quite often, inland areas end up seeing numerous showers of soft hail with some rain, sleet and snow in the mix. The kitchen sink really!

The day 10 chart shows the idea I mentioned earlier of low pressure becoming cut-off across Europe and supporting a ridge to the north of it for a time. In this particular version of events, that ridge has at no point extended far enough NE to draw any of the deep cold in from the far side of Scandinavia. Despite this, the above is as far as I can recall the wintriest output from ECM since before last winter 

You never know, this analysis could end up coming in handy if we get a bit of luck... if not, it serves as a good bit of practice for the coming season 

Whether it proves accurate or not, the analysis itself is very useful IMO - as others have rightly said.

So, after a few aborted attempts due to loose cameras and someone under the regulation height, the rollercoaster may just about be ready to leave the station.

The way the ECM models the high pressure just doesn't look right at all to me - one day it is in the mid-Atlantic, 24 hours later it is betwen Iceland and Greenland, another 48 hours later it is back in the mid-Atlantic.

Doesn't at all add up to my eyes.  Of course I would love to see it happen though.

There is a Toppler shown at T120 hours basing on the Bracka Fax, ECMWF and UKMO as to Forecast to 120 - out in the Mid part of Central North Atlantic, an area of PV kickbacks following the Leader PV Iceland and Norwegian Sea SE Greenland Low.

This situation is one to watch as a Large Greenland High, Mid SE N Atlantic High and large 

High located over Newfoundland NE USA.

 ECMWF on board so is UKMO but if GFS backs them up that will Support a chance for allowing Cold Arctic and Cold Greenland Iceland and SE Canada USA cold air to maintain a "Trend for a colder NW flow to be spread to UK from our NW  later next week.

I look forward to any changes to GFS etc etc.

😏

GFS P tries not once but twice to build a block to our North East.... but fails and we fall  back to pressure to our South.  Still a departure from the previous runs, the first one below at quite an interesting time range (less than 1 week)

1st Scandi HP attempt

2nd attempt ~ week later

Both times the pressure to the south west scuppers any real benefit from a Scandi HP.

Interesting ECM operational this morning

Meanwhile GEFS paints a dry picture and doubtless with a lot of HP around it could be quite cold at times as we head into December

depends on your definition of cold andy. you, being a traditional type fella, no doubt revert to the long term averages - i suspect the next couple weeks will be seen by most of the population to be cold, especially as its a long time since we've had sustained chilly conditions.

if the ECM op run went out to 264hrs it would be interesting this morning. 

Generally though things are still looking more westerly and anticyclonic so there could be some pleasant and not untypical early winter settled conditions.

The giant leap forward of yesterday has been corrected with a nifty foxtrot back this morning.  Any specific chart post 168 remains FI despite advances in computing.  Meanwhile today has dawned sunny and bright with Tc air of African origin, so I can welcomethe current form of mildness.

Looks like it's going to be an absolutely cracking day here. The sun is breaking through the mist, and temps expected in the upper teens. Amazing!

As far as the models are concerned - drier is brilliant, and not overly chilly either. Bank!