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David M Porter
19 November 2014 09:40:00

New thread for the last 11 days or so of November. What goodies will the models come up with, one wonders?


Off you go folks.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
roger63
19 November 2014 10:14:26


New thread for the last 11 days or so of November. What goodies will the models come up with, one wonders?


Off you go folks.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Hopefully something a bit more interesting than the current nondescript weather.Latest METO forecast mentions frost which has been totally absent to date here in S Hampshire. 

Solar Cycles
19 November 2014 10:18:24


 


Hopefully something a bit more interesting than the current nondescript weather.Latest METO forecast mentions frost which has been totally absent to date here in S Hampshire. 


Originally Posted by: roger63 

I've recorded two air frosts up here which is more than the whole of last winter.

bluejosh
19 November 2014 11:12:24
We've had 2 to date in my corner of Herts, here's hoping for a few more before too long........
Russwirral
19 November 2014 11:15:09

The Ensembles look a little bit more organised today. With grouping around a drop then rise in pressure. Combined with a general cool down to perhaps a little below average in temps.

Temps:
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141119/00/t2mCheshire.png

Pressure:
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141119/00/prmslCheshire.png

Says to me that after the atlantic takes a swipe at the uk - the Blocking high will probably assert itself a little more west introducing cooler continental air.

Shame this isnt in December or Jan as that air would probably be Frigid by then.

Hopefully this is more of a more substantial impacting pattern we are setting up to.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Solar Cycles
19 November 2014 11:25:44


The Ensembles look a little bit more organised today. With grouping around a drop then rise in pressure. Combined with a general cool down to perhaps a little below average in temps.

Temps:
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141119/00/t2mCheshire.png

Pressure:
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141119/00/prmslCheshire.png

Says to me that after the atlantic takes a swipe at the uk - the Blocking high will probably assert itself a little more west introducing cooler continental air.

Shame this isnt in December or Jan as that air would probably be Frigid by then.

Hopefully this is more of a more substantial impacting pattern we are setting up to.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Looks that way to me, in fact the potential for some wintry precipitation as we move towards the back end of the month is increasing with the NW/SE trajectory IMO.

Quantum
19 November 2014 13:03:08


Looks that way to me, in fact the potential for some wintry precipitation as we move towards the back end of the month is increasing with the NW/SE trajectory IMO.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Maybe on the hills in scotland, I see no sign of any real polar airmass just returners and the occasional cold sector on a passing depression. And snow from the west or south west is a very bad sign as it takes a ridiculously active atlantic to produce it. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
19 November 2014 13:25:22

No real sign of cold on the GEFS6z. If anything the op was one of the colder runs later on. Also the GEFS have been trending wetter in the last 36 hours or so.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Osprey
19 November 2014 13:47:04

Sometimes it's like watching tv on here, with the expert model watchers looking out onto the horizon for the least tiny first signs of a buildup and a forthcoming attack from the "snow beasts" of the north and east.


Better than real tv

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Hendon Snowman
19 November 2014 14:02:23


Sometimes it's like watching tv on here, with the expert model watchers looking out onto the horizon for the least tiny first signs of a buildup and a forthcoming attack from the "snow beasts" of the north and east.


Better than real tv


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


 


Nah watch TV reports from near Buffalo NY amazing snow beats machine in a action 

Solar Cycles
19 November 2014 14:06:46


 


Maybe on the hills in scotland, I see no sign of any real polar airmass just returners and the occasional cold sector on a passing depression. And snow from the west or south west is a very bad sign as it takes a ridiculously active atlantic to produce it. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

For those in the South it's poor but for those in the North towards months end is looking interesting before we see heights build during December settling things down.

Osprey
19 November 2014 14:44:55


 


 


Nah watch TV reports from near Buffalo NY amazing snow beats machine in a action 


Originally Posted by: Hendon Snowman 


Now that is sad!   

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
JACKO4EVER
19 November 2014 19:44:57
Evening all.
Looking to my untrained eye as never overly mild or cold, just possibly becoming quite wet as we head towards the end of November.
All fairly typical for the time of year.....
sam1879
19 November 2014 20:21:50
First sign of cold on MOGREPS 😉
Russwirral
19 November 2014 20:42:24

First sign of cold on MOGREPS ;)

Originally Posted by: sam1879 


 


Great!


 


Where did you hear this? who said it, paste a chart?


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Matty H
19 November 2014 20:43:36

OMG! OMG! OMG! We're going to be buried in snow any moment!!!!!!!.......

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Polar Low
19 November 2014 20:54:25

 


Not my words but something has been said on Twitter so I understand


@EssexWeather: Met Office ensemble (MOGREPS) hinting towards the end of the run that high pressure may end up in a favourable position for cold.


https://twitter.com/essexweather/status/535160974429671425


 


 



 


 


Great!


 


Where did you hear this? who said it, paste a chart?


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Solar Cycles
19 November 2014 20:56:13


OMG! OMG! OMG! We're going to be buried in snow any moment!!!!!!!.......


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Some where saying we could expect the Atlantic train, not yourself of course.

Polar Low
19 November 2014 20:57:44

 


Well it theres any snow to be had Matty gets the lot anyway



Some where saying we could expect the Atlantic train, not yourself of course.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Matty H
19 November 2014 21:05:00


Some where saying we could expect the Atlantic train, not yourself of course.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


No, you were right. It's looking bitter cold and snowy by end of the month.....

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Solar Cycles
19 November 2014 21:07:37


 


No, you were right. It's looking bitter cold and snowy by end of the month.....


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 But I never said that

Quantum
19 November 2014 22:36:17

Some attempt on the GFS and GFSP to push the jet a little further south and introduce colder air on the back end of an LP. It seems pretty futile though when a ridge is waiting in the azors to cut it off. Basically its an unmitigated disaster for those that want cold.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
19 November 2014 22:49:51


Some attempt on the GFS and GFSP to push the jet a little further south and introduce colder air on the back end of an LP. It seems pretty futile though when a ridge is waiting in the azors to cut it off. Basically its an unmitigated disaster for those that want cold.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Steady on Q

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Russwirral
19 November 2014 23:21:59
All the mechanisms are there, just the cold air isnt.

I wonder if this will be another winter of slider lows. Whether theres cold air in them will be another question.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Quantum
19 November 2014 23:47:17

All the mechanisms are there, just the cold air isnt.

I wonder if this will be another winter of slider lows. Whether theres cold air in them will be another question.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Are all the mechanisms there? It looks to me that all the mechanisms for a westerly regime are there; the angular pattern is very similar to last year with cold shots in America, the NAO is neutral or positive while the AO is negative (although it is to go positive), and the daily express says we are due a very cold snowy winter which pretty much guarantees we arn't.  

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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