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Sevendust
04 December 2014 12:53:21


I do think there is the possibility of some wintry conditions to quite low levels Sunday into Sunday night. Nothing exciting at all, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a covering of snow up towards the Peak District, with showers being blown in on a keen WNW'ly.


MetO raw data is showing wintry showers for Manchester Sunday night. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Classic pm north-westerly type. Certainly think there will be times when high ground oop north will do OK in the latest set-up. Not so clear at low levels

JACKO4EVER
04 December 2014 12:54:01
After a cooler blip towards the end of this week it looks pretty decent for milder weather fans- if that Azores HP could just push a little further North then we may get some decent chances at SW winds and milder temperatures 🙂
Joe Bloggs
04 December 2014 12:57:12


 


Yes, but I doubt there will be settling snow below about 300m


Originally Posted by: TomC 


yes, a hills only event I would say. I might see a flake if I'm lucky. Deep joy ;-) 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Skreever
04 December 2014 13:03:21
Met Office snow warnings posted for possible snow for much of north and west Scotland wef early Sunday morning.

Veteran of winter of 62/63
By Scapa Flow, Orkney
tallyho_83
04 December 2014 13:29:26

Low pressure systems are colder... coming in from the NW instead of SW this December unlike last December. However I did notice that the high is always to the south and despite Met Office warnings forecasts and more forecasts etc the GFS always show a mild outlier like temps of 12 or 13c by day for the south west?? There seems to be no change in pattern for the past week or so???


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Stormchaser
04 December 2014 15:33:33

As usual we seem to be hunting for amplification to the jet to improve our fortunes, either in the form of the Atlantic jet digging south with height rises to Scandi, or in the form of a ridge in the U.S. building well towards the Pole and closing the door on the transport of low pressure systems from the Pacific to the Atlantic.


The ECM and GEM 00z runs achieved this with the help of an intense East Pacific storm system, possible ex-tropical in nature, but this happens right out at days 9-10 and was not supported by the GFS 00z or 06z operational runs.


 


Following is the ECM ensemble mean on the left and the spread in solutions on the right:


  


To me that large spread across the UK, Europe and western Asia suggests that the Atlantic jet digging south with Scandi Height rises remains an option.


Meanwhile, the small spread coupled with a mean that shows a marked ridge-trough-ridge across the U.S. with the trough some way south of normal indicates that the Pacific/Atlantic transfer has a good chance of being shut down by day 10 or soon afterwards, though the ECM op might have been at the more amplified end. The much flatter Pacific trough which GFS comes up with appears to have almost no support from the ECM ensembles. Yet when I glanced at the GEFS they showed a fairly low spread around the flatter Pacific trough.


 


Until one or the other occurs, we're likely to remain in the status quo for quite some time, though it still looks like the lowest heights will tend to become increasingly focused towards Siberia or East Asia based on how the GEFS mean progresses. In theory that should make a real difference, but the op runs keep refusing to shut down that Pacific/Atlantic transfer which keeps a generally NW-SE storm track in play for the UK.


I suppose in a way we're literally looking to catch a break!


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Joe Bloggs
04 December 2014 15:40:24

Met Office snow warnings posted for possible snow for much of north and west Scotland wef early Sunday morning.

Originally Posted by: Skreever 


Indeed, the MetO raw forecasts now look pretty wintry for places such as Buxton - very likely to see a covering of snow there Sunday evening.



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Russwirral
04 December 2014 15:57:16


 


Indeed, the MetO raw forecasts now look pretty wintry for places such as Buxton - very likely to see a covering of snow there Sunday evening.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


aye - Ive got to drive from wirral to Stalybridge (East manchester) on Sunday evening around 8pm  a few wintry showers are forecast for then, which seems reasonable. The address is at about 190m ASL, which i think would just be enough to knock the temp back enough for snow.  either way, in the wind and showers - Sunday will feel Raw.


Medlock Vale Weather
04 December 2014 16:07:21


 


 


aye - Ive got to drive from wirral to Stalybridge (East manchester) on Sunday evening around 8pm  a few wintry showers are forecast for then, which seems reasonable. The address is at about 190m ASL, which i think would just be enough to knock the temp back enough for snow.  either way, in the wind and showers - Sunday will feel Raw.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yes I would imagine Stalybridge is a fair bet & basically the foothills of the Pennines at that height. Just enough north and west too.


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Polar Low
04 December 2014 16:13:42

Theres the "Golden Line" 528 on target


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=3&carte=1


 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=138&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=hgt0&HH=138&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


That should be good enough with a little height  bear in mind dew points would drop ahead of that front and in any heavy showers with evaporated cooling


 So pressure is off for a snowlesss winter I hope.

White Meadows
04 December 2014 16:35:13

After a cooler blip towards the end of this week it looks pretty decent for milder weather fans- if that Azores HP could just push a little further North then we may get some decent chances at SW winds and milder temperatures :-)

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


Nothing distinctly mild about the output to be honest?: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics//MT8_London_ens.png


Solar Cycles
04 December 2014 16:38:47


 


 


Nothing distinctly mild about the output to be honest?: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics//MT8_London_ens.png



Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Oh I don't know, maybe it is if your comparing it with December 2010. 


 


Steady as she goes is the name of the game with a little more amplification being shown on the GFS which could up the ante in terms of wintry precipitation further South.

Russwirral
04 December 2014 16:40:25
funny - the 12z GFS has reverted back to that run we had the other day with the pressure building to the east and the signs of an easterly trying to start.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141204/12/372/h850t850eu.png 

odd that.
Polar Low
04 December 2014 16:40:29

 


Very Raw in the wind


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/138h.htm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/138h.htm


it will feel like


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/windchill/138h.htm


 


 



 


 


Nothing distinctly mild about the output to be honest?: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics//MT8_London_ens.png



Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

picturesareme
04 December 2014 16:57:31
Coldest day down here since march 2013 - just saying.
Polar Low
04 December 2014 17:05:56

It does make you wonder with that Pattern how it looks like a repeating pattern for the start of winter, I wonder if the usa will have a very mild winter this year


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0&carte=1


 

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
04 December 2014 17:58:08

Hmm.


A Look at 12z UKMO and prior to that a look at GFS OMG 12z.


Next Week it looks like Tuesday Windy with mild wet weather Central and SE, but turns colder later from the NW, this is pushed SE to some length on next Wednesday with squally blustery showers with ran, hail and sleet or snow up above 200m in the NW and North, it turns Northerly Thursday, with High Pressure building ridge, lasting for the few days onwards from there.


Cold airmass from Iceland next Wednesday and Thursday- which started journey mixing with warm air into cold Arctic air Between Newfounland GIN Sea, SW and SE Greenland then (Monday to Tuesday it cross over that area).  The Center of this Deep Low GFS has it deeper than the UKMO (Odd) why does this happen- I think the UKMO may trend to GFS - the Central Low of it is between Iceland and NW UK, in general, with Very cold air from GIN Sea, Greenland and via Iceland to NW and North UK, then affecting East and NE UK during Wednesday and particularly Thursday.


 


Cold with NW to Northerly flow and heavy showers with rain hail and hill sleet snow on Sunday p.m. And during Monday, and with Cold frosty night Monday as a brief High Pressure ridge affects UK, ahead of the ESE to UK from N Atlantic then NE wards directed UK Low as already discussed herein.


 


Plenty of fun to be had ahem, as long as the PFJ crosses N Atlantic and across UK Iceland Greenland Newfoundland NE USA et all.


It is great to see Los Angeles and San Francisco see Low Pressure system atmospheric rain belt which also is now widely affecting SW USA, with some mild weather there!!.


NE USA Corner USA including East NE coastal Districts and New York getting Low Pressure and lots of mild rain, SE and South USA having dry very mild weather as well, and A Category 5 Typhoon about to make landfall in NE Phillipines with current winds at 179 mph with gusts to 215 mph, though as it tracks NW across the lands it will weaken.


South Europe areas of heavy showers and active Low Pressure, last two weeks from current time, floods in Morocco S. Europe Spain and Italy.


During next week South Central SW Europe Low that affects them later this week will then affect Tunisia and parts East and a bit SE of there during the time we get more strong wind heavy rainfall, and turning our SW to West and then NW and Northerly.


💦😀😅


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
springsunshine
04 December 2014 19:42:10

Coldest day down here since march 2013 - just saying.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Ditto here,barley reached 5c,coldest day for 20 months and ive been sat out fishing all day

Gooner
04 December 2014 19:43:57


 


Ditto here,barley reached 5c,coldest day for 20 months and ive been sat out fishing all day


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Yep agree with that 3.5c here , very chilly,


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hungry Tiger
04 December 2014 19:58:22


 


Yep agree with that 3.5c here , very chilly,


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Same situation here.


Max of 3.5C


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Matty H
04 December 2014 21:00:04

New thread on the way. 


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