Weather for the week ahead is on at 9:55pm BBC News 24. - Will be an interesting one!

It was a vague forecast!

It seemed like a decent forecast given the variation in specifics in the current model output.

Met Office update: - Keeping our fingers crossed! - Time will tell. But the GFS doesn't support this - Let's hope we see some good GFS runs within the next few days, because the HP is in the wrong place.

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UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Dec 2014 to Thursday 8 Jan 2015:

The last week of December will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although there is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this. Temperatures are expected be around average for the time of year, then may turn colder than normal in the New Year.

Updated at: 1442 on Wed 10 Dec 2014

If the weather gets colder in the new year you wouldnt expect to see the colder runs show up until 18/19 Dec at the earliest in the far reaches of FI...Certainly by Christmas, though by then the Met O 30 dayer may well have changed mild...

Quite bad in South Pennines too
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-30428804

That isn't what he said and I am sure the Met do

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872327/Colder-Lapland-Britain-plunge-8C-tomorrow-coldest-day-year-far.html

ENJOY

I haven't posted here for years (hi everyone!), but the recent media stupidity has prompted a comeback - especially since there is really only one source of this stupidity: James Madden. I have tried commenting on his Exacta Weather Facebook page, but anyone who visits will see that when you click to view comments, there are either none or many fewer than the link says. I suppose it shouldn't be a surprise that his Facebook page is heavily censored.

Do any of you think this is misleading!? - The models/gfs show mild weather into FI!?

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Dec 2014 to Friday 26 Dec 2014:

Cold and showery weather at first, at least across the northern half of the UK, with sleet or snow showers and the risk of icy stretches. Cloud and outbreaks of rain further south should clear later Thursday. It will be generally windy, with gales in the north and northeast of the UK, and it will stay cold for most. It is expected to stay windy with showers into the weekend, turning wintry over northern hills and mountains. Drier weather should develop over parts of southern Britain, with some bright or sunny spells, but it is likely to remain windy with showers or longer spells of rain across the north. Temperatures should remain a little below normal with overnight frost in places. Little overall change is expected into the next week.

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Dec 2014 to Saturday 10 Jan 2015:

The end of December will most likely stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. Temperatures are expected to be around average at first. However, there is a possibility that conditions may become rather colder into the New Year, although there is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this.

Certainly more positive update from the Met Office - Just hope the models gfs support this and soon.- Expect some pattern change within a week. But for now it looks like briefly milder and briefly colder.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Dec 2014 to Saturday 27 Dec 2014:

Rain across the south should clear during Thursday leaving a generally bright but cold afternoon. However showers are likely to feed into some western parts, with snow across northern hills, perhaps briefly to some lower levels in the far north. Also windy, with coastal gales, occasionally severe in the north. Showery conditions persist into Friday, with showers most frequent across northern and some coastal areas, before fading away into the weekend. However cloud and rain is then likely to push into Scotland Saturday, before spreading south and bringing a period of milder and wetter weather to many. This pattern of colder and showery conditions, with milder and wetter spells, then continues next week. Temperatures will therefore vary day by day, although averaging out to be near or just below normal.

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Dec 2014 to Sunday 11 Jan 2015:

The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is the risk that a more prolonged cold spell could develop from early January.

Updated at: 1507 on Sat 13 Dec 2014

Stu, you should check out the FB page that looks at his forecasts - "Exacta Weather - the truth behind the headlines". Definitely worth a read, shocking how appalling his forecasts are and a disgrace that the media continue to quote him

Re: Met O 30 dayer:

"The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest.....

This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January."

Then there is the bit about a risk of cold...

Clearly the continuation of the mild-cool alternating westerly theme is now the form horse, and though the risk of a "prolonged cold spell" is there it is not the favoured outcome, I interpret that as a step back and it does not come as a surprise at all.

WI

I wouldn't read too much into the precise wording to be honest WI. The fact they have thought to include it at all given the time scales suggest to me such an outcome is a possibility.

I'm not sure I would expect nor indeed trust a strong signal for prolonged cold at this range. I do find it intriguing that it is there at all. In the past when I have seen such suggestions in the Met Office's longer outlooks more often than not they do come to something. They would I'm sure however be the first to highlight the uncertainties and lack of confidence at this range (and rightly so!).

Very different to other individuals and organisations elsewhere (who shall remain unnamed in this post).

I agree with most of what you say there, though I would choose to place a different emphasis.  The thing is this - that a "pattern change" which has been the talk of the week is obviously not the favoured option - rather a continuation of the current pattern is what the experts at the Met O are now saying is the most likely scenario into mid January.

I would therefore be cautious in searching too hard for the pattern change when it appears to be possibly slipping away in probability terms.  As for the other so-called weather organisations, I ignore them and refuse to purchase newspapers  cynical enough to print alarmist weather related headlines.

I have checked out that page already, thanks :-) 

The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is the risk that a more prolonged cold spell could develop from early January.

Are you likely to get a prolonged cold spell from the NW ?????  Seems unlikely to me.

with the S and E having more settled conditions that could well be from a HP which could obviously develop into something much colder.

Having read the met office extended paragraphs for the past week or so, I would say the signal for cold in January has, if anything, increased & strengthened. This isn't what I expected and thought the hint would have been dropped by now. Silly to over analyse but the words 'rather' and 'prolonged' indicate slight growth in confidence. 'Signal' also replaced with 'risk'.... Maybe they are considering preparations to take the notion more seriously.
It's a straw I'm willing to clutch!

edit: I might also add that the line regarding high uncertainty has been dropped today. 

Maybe they expect something of a slow transition if the North westerly theme remains til mid month in some shape or form. I'd love to know more.....

read all about it,  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872327/Colder-Lapland-Britain-plunge-8C-tomorrow-coldest-day-year-far.html

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Dec 2014 to Monday 12 Jan 2015:

The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is also the potential for a slightly more settled, and colder spell to develop from early January.

That could be HP sat slap bang over us

that high pressure never gives in does it, always dominating our weather has been for a long time,

BBC MO weather picking up on this colder spell from early Jan too:

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Monday 15 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Dreaming of a white Christmas?

December so far has seen quite a changeable pattern of weather. There have been some chilly nights when the skies have cleared and the winds fallen light but also some wild and windy days, with low pressure systems rapidly deepening over the Atlantic before bringing gales and some exceptionally high seas to more northern parts of the country. There has been some snow too, mainly but not exclusively over hills in the north of the country.

All of this is standard fare for December and the snow we have seen is nothing out of the ordinary. However, it's approaching the time of year where many people only care about one thing - a white Christmas.

At the time of writing, it still looks too early to place bets on specific cities seeing a white Christmas, since the current changeable pattern, with day-by-day swings in temperature and weather, seems set to continue into the New Year.

So, with the usual health warning to stay tuned for updates as the big day nears, it currently looks possible for some snowflakes to fall somewhere on Christmas Day. Without wishing to be a Christmas Grinch however, widespread falling or lying snow (the sort needed for sledging) looks unlikely for much of the country, especially away from hills in the north.

Monday 15 December—Sunday 21 December

Cold start and end, mild middle

Monday starts cold and windy in the far north and northwest of the UK, with further showers, some wintry over the hills. In the southwest, cloud and outbreaks of rain will ease away by dusk. Much of the rest of the country will be dry with sunny periods.

Following a mostly cold and crisp start to Tuesday, milder air with rain and strong winds will spread into western areas, spreading eastwards through the rest of the day before clearing Wednesday morning. On Thursday, outbreaks of rain return to central and southern parts, but in the north it will be colder again with sunshine and showers, these perhaps wintry in the far north.

The colder, showery weather extends to the rest of the country on Friday and for much of the weekend, with the heaviest and most frequent showers in the north and northwest, driven by gales or severe gales in exposure. The more sheltered southern and eastern parts of the UK will remain mainly dry with the best of the sunshine found here.

Monday 22 December—Sunday 28 December

Rinse and repeat

The showers may be more persistent at times in the north through Sunday and into Monday, with the rain possibly heavy at times in the northwest, especially over windward hills. Temperatures are expected to be generally above normal over most parts at the start of Christmas week, although feeling colder in the wind and any heavier rain. During Tuesday, the rain is currently expected to move gradually southeastward across the UK, with showery conditions returning into northwestern parts later in the day. Temperatures will return closer to normal in the wake of the clearing band of rain.

This changeable weather is presently expected to continue through the Christmas period, bringing a mixture of wetter and milder days along with some colder and showery interludes. By night, in those colder interludes, frosts are likely. As for snow? Well, if the timing is right and a colder interlude coincides with Christmas Day, then it may be possible that somewhere in the country sees some snowflakes falling - the chances currently look highest for hills in the north.

Monday 29 December—Sunday 18 January

New year, new weather script?

The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. It may continue to be mild one day, then colder the next, but temperatures are expected to average out to be around or just below normal for the timne of year. The continuation of this variable pattern is the most likely and preferred scenario for our weather throughout the period until mid-January, however there are some signs of potential for a slightly more settled and colder spell to develop from early January.

Next week

Will the colder, more settled scenario win out?