Seems that changes to some colder weather may be afoot later next week, will they come to fruition

Take it away folks.

really?? or have I had to many jd,s

control

So... GFS is about the same as many recent runs have been for Christmas Day while GFSP manages to find improved alignment to the high pressure in the mid-Atlantic and also drops the shortwave development to the NW.

GFS suddenly starts to push energy east from out west of the Azores as soon as it hits lower-res at +192 hours... suspicious behaviour yet that only serves to produce something not far from the ECM 00z for 27th December (a quite violent storm for the south but with a track that limits snow to an unstable, disturbance-laden northerly overnight and through 28th December... yes even this rocky road bears fruit!). After that comes a raging jet under a strong Greenland High... not a logical coupling at all! That aspect of the run is best ignored really.

GFSP once again completely walls off the Atlantic right until the end of 2014. As the NW Europe trough sinks into the Med. there's a lot of fun and games to be had and even at the end of the run it's easy to see how HP over Scandinavia could have provided stronger resistance (sounds greedy but I'm just saying!).

Still best to regard GFSP as the best case scenario on offer for prolonged cold, with the shut-down Atlantic jet yet to feature on an ECM operational run. Given it's upgraded nature this will be an interesting test and could set the benchmark by which we judge such promising output in future situations.

As for runs like the GFS 00z, GFS 12z and ECM 00z, Sure, having lows tracking close to the Channel and engaging the cold air would hold huge snowfall potential, but it's a more dangerous game by far. Are you a gambling fellow? 

I'll aim to have some nice charts posted once we have ECM's view in the mix 

Adjustment is usually south James that would be game on midlands north perhaps further south of course Matty would get the luck he always does.

But we have a long way to go 

Brian is something wrong with the parallel? I'm still only up to 99hrs?!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

It turned out I was downloading from the wrong server I confused the parallel for the low res GFS 

Hmmm, some nice ens members from the 12z GFS but cold still in the minority.

Would be nice to see a solid and growing clump picking out the same colder solution but run to run we just get scatter.

I'm guessing at least some of this is how the LPs exit Canada/North America - if they're held up and we get some decent stable WAA up the Western flank of Greenland it all ends up promising. If the Low Pressure doesn't play ball we end up in a messy zonal picture, although with cold air around it's quite possible someone will get an impressive if temporary snow event. (For high ground in Scotland suspect it'd be not temporary!)

One interesting thing in the outer reaches of FI is even the zonal members try to build Northern blocking, hinting that if attempt 1 fails then attempt 2 is waiting in the wings

Will be interesting seeing the ECM op run - may be one of those high res situations where the ens won't fall in line until late on, or it may just be a weak blocking signal is being played with, only to be dropped in a couple of days time

I'm very much in the glass half-empty camp at present

GFSP model - Thaaaaaaaaaaaaat's better. Much better.

The old skool FGS model - Pfff.

What is the mighty ECM going to make of it? I'll find out in about half an hour (although I do use weatheronline to view it as I'm so used to the layout).

Of course, the bits I wanted to see in the new GFS are all in low res and it will all look completely different in the next run, but, I do like a good ending to a sci fi story.

Oh my. I really am becoming a Model Output monster.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-162.png?12 GFS at 162

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-168.GIF?17-0  ECM at 168

Not that far off each other IMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-192.GIF?17-0 ECM 192

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-192.png?12  GFS 192

Not a million miles from each other

Big upgrade on the ECM, its on now! 

The GFSP12 has available on TWO for a couple of hours:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Are you still having probs viewing it?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-240.GIF?17-0

Gets there in the end...................cant complain really about todays runs

The GEFS look ok for a cold snap but nothing too exciting. I've seen comments on Twitter saying otherwise so feel free to disagree.  

looks colder than it looks under the spotlight for the big day mild xmas i think not at this stage.

[quote=Gooner;6522

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-192.GIF?17-0 ECM 192

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-192.png?12  GFS 192

Not a million miles from each other