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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-150.png?12
Will the HP to West sit over the UK
Different in a good or bad way?
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-156.png?12
Looks to me as though the HP to the West will block any cold air trying to get South
It looks similar to yesterday's 12z to my eyes?
Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles
This was the 6z at the same point ^^^^^^^^^
Now look
It certainly paints a much quieter picture up to Xmas a just after. There's amazing WAA into the arctic, but it's all too far West for us.
Certainly different to this point , not saying we wont get there
UKMO at 144
GFS 144
As we all feared it would, high pressure to the south is the spoiler. We wont even get a northerly at all. My goodness, I didnt expect it to go Pete Tong so quickly!
HP to the S is much more influential on the 12z Op
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
and then up pops a fledgling Scandi High :)
UKMO not good either and GEM going the same way so far. No wonder those METO updates were so uninspiring.
December CET could end up in the mild category if the GFS 12z verifies. Small changes on the global scale. Massive changes for much of the UK. Expect this will be the warmest in the set, but it illustrates the shaky nature of things.
GFSP turns it fresher for a couple of days at least.
I didn't think the UKMO model went out to the 27th?
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
That really was horrible. Let's see what the Parallel run brings
Yes, its Samaritans time again, except most of us dont allow ourselves to get sucked in anymore. I was wondering how this would go wrong, now we know.
Im surprised that anyone is surprised. Things have followed a familiar pattern, but things to add:
Wait for the ensembles
Wait for the ECM
WI
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014121812/UN144-21.GIF?18-17
Will follow a similar path to GFS, much weaker trough to the north. The Euroslug will build north I assume. Another mild Xmas day on the cards
Originally Posted by: kmoorman
Oh that's not nice either. 2 straws gone - I've still got the lesser runs in the ensemble to clutch at.
WOW.
Well I was urging caution earlier, but that has blown things apart. Wait for the ENS, but I think its about as dead as a dodo now.
A fresh breeze for a couple of days and then this:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014121812/gem-0-222.png?12
GEM turns out OK in the end, but an implausible evolution.
Blowtorch?
Ian Brown's train has not only been derailed, but cut into small pieces LOL