This model watching lark is like pulling teeth - so painful!!

There is (as ever) no cross-model agreement and that will forever be the case in this country until any "event" is +48 hrs away or less.

The GFS giveth with one hand, the ECM taketh away.

Frustrating is it not??

Is Wetterzentrale down at the moment? I can't get any charts to display on it at all right now.

WZ is working better now, thankfully.

The ECM 12z doesn't end as badly as I feared it might do. Not as good as this morning's run but it doesn't turn into a bartlett type run either. Quite likely just another one of numerous possibilities.

fwiw, I reckon it's likely going to be early next week at the earliest before we have any proper idea of what is likely to transpire in the days following Christmas. Seems that a pattern change of sorts could be trying to take place, and it is often during such times when the models tend to struggle somewhat.

We've enjoyed an advertising break  but can we keep it on topic now, please.

Let wait for ecm mean David it should be very soon

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0

On the plus side ECM could deliver a White Christmas. We can bin the rest of the run though!

no one seems to have looked at that

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1

Not much help from GEFS.

At 144h HP dominates 85% of ENS. HP location majority to south of UK (50%) Mid Atlantic (35%) >looks a quieter day than yesterdays ENS.

At 240h LP with southwesterly flow 40%, HP 60% largest group mid Atlantic followed  by South OF UK with a couple of Greenland Highs.

By 360h LP with westerly/southwesterly flow 60% Hp 40% half South of rest split between  mid Atlantic and Scandinavia.

So no clear a pattern after Xmas, major storm ens 27/28th  in a minority  with Atlantic dominant ENS by 360h

Nice evolution, but I'm a little perturbed at the wild run-to-run swings of some models, which by definition means a complete lack of confidence in the prospect of a cold spell

ecm mean running very late tonight

ecm opp

I advise to take a few days off from model watching and come back after the weekend as there's just far too much chaos and the only thing that looks pretty odds on is mild up to Xmas then a cold relatively dry day on the big day itself. thereafter take your pick from a number of solutions on offer ranging from sub arctic to a balmy SW and everything in-between.

Cant do that sc its like a drug for me sad I know but I have to look all the time even when not posting

Indeed I don't know what to think of it all, I need a lie down! 

The ECM short ensembles are very similar to yesterday's 12z. The majority of runs are in the cold category by day 10. There are a number of warmer runs but they are the minority. So no need to panic. Both the control and op runs were at the top end of the mild cluster at the end of the run.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

I bet you don't

GFSP has just been cancelled until further notice due to the hardware failures today. The 30 day evaluation period will have to be reset, so that means go live will be pushed back further. There's also expected to be further problems with the GFS and GEFS throughout this weekend.

Its strange Gw how we seem to get a batch of the milder options in one go over a few days perhaps theres a lesson there when we get some of the colder options also

all i know is that its going to be green xmas with some potenial afterwards towards the new year and after, looking forward to storm-chasers post he is absolutley amazing. along with other memebers on here, including MR BRIAN and of cource Matty H he The man, HE LIKE A RAZOR BLADE SHARPE and  stright to the point i like that, [ sorry for off topic, ] but im still learning and love this site,

At risk of detracting from the soap opera unfolding with regards the prospects of a decent cold spell later next week, it should be noted that the diagnosis of some on here, including the observation made by Dave (Sevendust) yesterday, of the potential for one or more severe end storms in the said period should not be discounted.
Some of the modelling these last few days takes the sub-tropical energy moving up from the Azores and engages it with a strong jet which promotes some very rapid cyclogenesis that would make last week's 'bomb' look like a light breeze. At least the Express might actually have something to bleat on about I suppose.

Clearly the ECM mean (above left) is strongly in support of an outcome much like the model consensus (GFS, GFSP, JMA and to some extent GEM, with UKMO also displaying the breakaway shortwave on day 6).

So the way the ECM op run evolves is about as out of kilter as it gets!

When you look at the jet charts on the likes of GFSP, you can see a streak running toward the south of England, which is following the boundary between the upper trough toward Svalbard and the ridge west of Iberia (below-left):

What happens next is a bit complex looking, but it appears that a new, flat section of jet forms N. of the Azores as the subtropical air mass clashes with the Arctic air mass, and this jet forced to head due east because that route is quite frankly a lot easier going (avoids a piling up of air as it meets the jet coming SW from Greenland).

Based on this, it could be that on the ECM run, the jet through Greenland remains fully connected to the jet running down west of the Azores instead of breaking free and moving east to connect with the jet streak running SE through the UK.

I suppose what all models but ECM do is move toward cutting-off the Azores low, which almost completes before the jet out of the U.S. extends down to meet with it.

This disparity results in ECM having a ridge-trough-ridge pattern across the Atlantic when the other models have trough-ridge-trough! * facepalm *

Going much further into this 'outsider' ECM run is arguably a fool's game, but I will add that its solution requires about as much amplification as can possibly be achieved days; when you have such extreme jet contortions the jet behaves much like a river would do in that situation - it wants to find a much quicker route from A (SW Greenland) to B (the UK) by cutting-off the loop.

The notion that ECM tends to over-amplify is often put out there on various forums, but rarely has it seemed apparent within the 6 day range. I say 'seemed' because, well, you know how it is...

Helpful analysis in trying to make sense of the apparently chaotic output. Thanks SC