http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30556460?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

This BBC outlook shows some jet stream charts with the flow more akin to UKMO/GFS/GFSP/JMA than what ECM seems to get up to.

Hardly surprising I suppose, as it would be quite bonkers for them to go with an op run that has no support from the other op runs and is against the majority of its own ensembles as well.

I amazed that you know it is going to be a "Green Christmas". Given the model output and the Met Office forecasts it is brave to make such a definitive statement IMO. The 18z GFS highlights the risk of a White Christmas in some northern parts.

Looking potentially stormy:

Full ECM ensembles for De Bilt look good showing little change after day 10 with a big cluster of cold solutions right out to the end of the run. Some warmer options as well but these are in the minority. Some runs fluctuate between cold and warm spells as shown by the blue control run.

But overall another decent set of ensembles this evening for those looking for cold weather

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

So the 18z shows a brief stormy colder snap before  mildness returns:

Agreed and an example of what the MetO are concerned about. Any energy injected from the Azores trough into the exit region of the jet streak leads to explosive cyclogenesis capable of brewing a severe storm. On the 18Z it generates 95km/hr mean wind speeds along the Channel. What happens after and in relation to any cold incursion is superfluous IMO to he primary concern in relation to a potential severe-end wind event next weekend.

Yes, the potential for damaging and disruptive weather is now a primary concern.  I hope that the cyclogenesis displayed is being over-egged in this instance.

The extent of the cyclogenesis shown on the 18z run is quite extraordinary, particularly as it takes place over the UK. The low deepens by about 42mb in just 24 hours or 35mb in just 18 hours and 14mb in 6 hours as it moves from the Bristol Channel to the Thames Estuary.

12z Boxing Day - low centre just off the chart but about 1015mb
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014121918/162-515UK.GIF?19-18

18z Boxing Day - low centre 1008mb SW Ireland
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014121918/168-515UK.GIF?19-18

0z 27th Dec - low centre 995mb Bristol Channel
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014121918/174-515UK.GIF?19-18

6z 27th Dec - low centre 981mb just east of the Thames Estuary
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014121918/180-515UK.GIF?19-18

12z 27th Dec - low centre 973mb Netherlands
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014121918/186-515UK.GIF?19-18

Some huge changes predicted to take place in the Stratosphere at 10hPa between Christmas and the New Year including major warming. This could potentially impact our weather further down the line.

I think we could see some very "interesting" weather in the weeks ahead.

Current position at 10hPa - typical circular vortex
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121918/gfsnh-10-6.png?18

Christmas Day - significant warming taking place above Siberia
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121918/gfsnh-10-138.png?18

Temperatures reach -8C over Siberia by 29 Dec
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121918/gfsnh-10-228.png?18

By the end of the run the warming has abated somewhat but the vortex has been reduced substantially in size and the core has migrated from being between Greenland and Iceland to being over Scandinavia
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121918/gfsnh-10-384.png?18

The ECM Op is seemingly quite determined.  From cold to mild v quickly would fit with the pattern so far this winter.  Too early to call.  Boxing Day is clearly a critical point, the ECM should have a better idea in 24 hours time.

This sure looks as though it's a long way from being resolved, one way or another. As I said earlier, I think we're going to have to wait until possibly early next week before we have any real idea of what is likely to happen after Christmas.

superfluous? Some seasons more then others but storms with sever to storm force winds happen most winters along the channel coasts..... Snow does not :-(

The wind is just a minor inconvenience so long as it brings snow with it :-)

Gah this is annoying me, what is wrong with the servers today, can't get any 18Z data to analyse 

The parallel doesn't seem to be working anywhere; on the plus side the 18Z normal is pretty interesting for boxing day.

This is absurd, where is the data. The 6Z disappeared earlier today as-well, has north korea been at the models aswell?!

Can't even get the 12Z now! 

More excellent analysis from GW tonight, both the cyclogenesis event and the the stratosphere developments are high-end events with potentially large impacts.

The GFS 18z is very consistent with the previous run in terms of the movement of energy from the Atlantic to the UK, if anything slightly quicker to establish the NW-SE jet.

It's a shame what it does with the split jet over the Eastern U.S. on day 7 though - too much energy takes the polar route, shattering the Greenland High.

Still, the high needn't have sunk like it did based on the day 8 chart - the majority of the jet energy is going south which ought to sustain the mid-Atlantic ridge - the run fails to do this because that southern arm of the jet is rapidly shut down during the first few frames of lower-res (starting +192 hours). A classic sign of the GFS bias, though that doesn't mean that it absolutely must be happening in this particular case.

For what it's worth (perhaps not a lot considering the U.S. low behaviour remains to be sorted out), I think a more realistic evolution from that day 8 chart would be one where the shortwave over Greenland (the remains of the formerly U.S. low) drops into Scandinavia with the ridge attempting to build toward Svalbard in its wake.

I guess we should know soon enough whether ECM is off on one or not. Tomorrow morning might see a drastic turnaround from that model... or a number of the others. Sweet dreams everyone 

J F F  Rain turns t snow as the LP drags in cold air

GFSP is not available this weekend due to server problems  

Its not just the GFSP, its been a nightmare today in general. The 0Z was late, the 6Z was on time but it dissapeared for no apparent reason shortly after it ran, the 12Z was also late and the 18Z is no where to be found, I have no idea where people are getting it from. Perhaps it dissapeared like the 6Z. Its infuriating. 

Just as I finished my beautiful snow prediction maps as well, they took ages to write and I have no data to test them. GAH! 

Now the 12Z is back?! 18Z still nowhere to be seen. 

The server could not fulfill this request:

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov:9090/dods/gfs/gfs20141219/gfs_18z.info

because of the following error:

/gfs/gfs20141219/gfs_18z is not an available dataset

http://www.nooooooooooooooo.com/

its all over the shop gfs  it has been on the sherry have a look at those members

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=168&code=11&mode=0&carte=0

Try direct Q

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

ohhh I see try that 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 22 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 26 2014

...AN ACTIVE HOLIDAY WEATHER PATTERN...

...OVERVIEW...
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL MIGRATE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY---THEN SETTLE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BREATH AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD-SCALE WINDY
CONDITIONS AND

...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
IN THE EAST...
THE 19/00Z ECENS/ECMWF AND GEFS/GFS HAVE MAINTAINED DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH MIGRATION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES---TIED TO
FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND LOCATION OF TRIPLE-POINT LOW FORMATION(S)
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. THE 19/00Z ECMWF WAS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION ACROSS THE EAST VERSUS THE GEFS/GFS WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY THE
WESTERLY...BUT BOTH WERE ESSENTIALLY---SPOT ON---WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR SURGING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON DAY 4-5.

But how did meteociel get them? I'm trying to download from the server and I am having no luck. The GRIB type isn't working either. I'm starting to think metociel must have got them and then they just dissapeared, because I can't find any trace of them anywhere. 

ALL of the GFSP are gone apart from the 6Z aswell. The 18Z ensembles are of course no where to be seen, but hey at least the 0Z lot are there. 

Looking at meteociel charts, were they to occur, we'd be looking at memorable blizzards for many parts with those winds (an 18 hour snowstorm giving 20cm or so in some places)... Higher ground in and around the Chilterns (i.e. IMBY) would be plastered!   Pity it's 180 rather than 18 hours out, especially given the model volatility at the moment.... so as Marcus sensibly caveats, this is all "just for fun".  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/180h.htm

Dont worry mine been playing up as well try link above what you wanted

Have you had any luck at all downloading them? Now the GRIB format seems to be showing up, but its saying the files were modified literally a minute ago, what does that even mean!?