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Gooner
21 December 2014 13:35:21


Sorry...not referring specifically to here but to the other place.


Here is generally much more sanguine and hence why I never joined over at NW.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I did for the laugh, it really is amusing

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Justin W
21 December 2014 13:46:24

The usual WIO bollox I see.


Thanks to Darren Prescott for returning and offering a bit of sanity. A cold, not severe, spell looks, if not nailed on, then the most likely setup as we head into the New Year, IMO. Compared with last winter, that feels like Nirvana



 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
moomin75
21 December 2014 13:52:18


The usual WIO bollox I see.


Thanks to Darren Prescott for returning and offering a bit of sanity. A cold, not severe, spell looks, if not nailed on, then the most likely setup as we head into the New Year, IMO. Compared with last winter, that feels like Nirvana



 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Hi Justin.  Merry Christmas to you. ;)


Actually the days start lengthening after today so spring is on the way!! Hurrah.


As you say...a million times better than last year's filth. At least chart watching has become interesting again. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
21 December 2014 13:57:01


Hi Justin.  Merry Christmas to you. ;)


Actually the days start lengthening after today so spring is on the way!! Hurrah.


As you say...a million times better than last year's filth. At least chart watching has become interesting again. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


And that could well be chilly and wet lol

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
21 December 2014 14:06:19


Extended 0z EPS - still no real change, still showing a cold spell as the most likely outcome:



Originally Posted by: Retron 


Thanks Darren. Is there any way of telling if that cold cluster ( Maxs of +2c and Mins -3c) a result of a continental easterly developing or cold high pressure settled over head ? 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Brian Gaze
21 December 2014 14:15:07

Thanks Darren for getting back on my question yesterday about the temperature variable shown on the ECM plots. HIRLAM is based on ECM data and this also only offers temperature unlike the GFS/GEFS which offer tmax, tmin and temp. I've looked at the HIRLAM values, e.g.



Generally they seem to be between the GFS tmax and tmin values, so I'm reasonably confident they show the forecast mean. If that's right I expect the same is the case for the ECM plots you posted. 


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Snowedin3
21 December 2014 14:15:12


 


Yes but you are from snowless Witney , you lot are all doom and gloom merchants 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


tongue-out


hes just a bad egg, I'm ever the optimist sealed

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
moomin75
21 December 2014 14:18:09


 


tongue-out


hes just a bad egg, I'm ever the optimist sealed


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 

Oi Dean....that's not nice. I don't even like eggs.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
21 December 2014 14:22:22


Thanks Darren for getting back on my question yesterday about the temperature variable shown on the ECM plots. HIRLAM is based on ECM data and this also only offers temperature unlike the GFS/GEFS which offer tmax, tmin and temp.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's worth mentioning that the "only temperature" option only seems to apply to the EPS ensembles - the operational ECM run does provide a TMax, Tmin and Temperature paramater. For example, for London from today's 0z ECM: (and yes, I have spotted that the T2M is greater than the max for 12z on the 30th! )































































































   MaxTMinTTemp 2MDew Point
MON00Z29-Dec7.56.77.62.2
MON06Z29-Dec7.86.46.32.5
MON12Z29-Dec6.34.96.01.3
MON18Z29-Dec6.12.52.4-2.2
TUE00Z30-Dec2.61.71.6-1.2
TUE06Z30-Dec3.31.42.30.1
TUE12Z30-Dec4.30.64.40.3
TUE18Z30-Dec5.21.92.91.2
WED00Z31-Dec3.72.63.72.9
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
21 December 2014 15:17:33

I would only write off the next few weeks based on the default patterns of the UK...and also the law of sod which states if anything can go wrong it will.
We have been on this forum for many years and we can pretty much copy and paste the comments from all those years to sum up a UK winter. It will flatter to deceive as usual and before we know it, it will be March/April when we will have perfect winter synoptics but two months too late.
Twas ever thus. The only decent winters we have had in the last 15 years have coincided with me being out of the country 2009 Dec 2010 and March 2013 I was in Australia for each of them.
Maybe I am the Jonah???
The good news is I am going to Australia next Christmas so put your bets on for a snow fest. Lol. Sorry for the light hearted off topicness.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think writing off the potential for cold weather in the next few weeks is as daft as constantly saying it is just around the corner like a few posters have been doing some mid November. Last winter was exceptional and the signs so far this year are we are seeing conditions much close to the average, so a cold snap would be favoured at some point.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
21 December 2014 15:30:11


Thanks Darren. Is there any way of telling if that cold cluster ( Maxs of +2c and Mins -3c) a result of a continental easterly developing or cold high pressure settled over head ? 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Only by correlating it with the wind information.


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london


http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest


As can be seen, wind speeds are set to drop markedly after the potential storm. In the SW of the Netherlands the majority of runs show a westerly component, suggesting it's a cold high scenario, although there are a smattering of cold easterly runs in there.

Leysdown, north Kent
Matty H
21 December 2014 15:42:57


 


I think writing off the potential for cold weather in the next few weeks is as daft as constantly saying it is just around the corner like a few posters have been doing some mid November. Last winter was exceptional and the signs so far this year are we are seeing conditions much close to the average, so a cold snap would be favoured at some point.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Solar Cycles hasn't been doing that at all 


My philosophy remains the same as every winter. Breeze through everything on here talking about 10 days+ away, and start to actually look at some charts posted on here when the talk is about 5 days away or less. 


Looks seasonal for Xmas anyway. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Solar Cycles
21 December 2014 15:48:07


 


I think writing off the potential for cold weather in the next few weeks is as daft as constantly saying it is just around the corner like a few posters have been doing some mid November. Last winter was exceptional and the signs so far this year are we are seeing conditions much close to the average, so a cold snap would be favoured at some point.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

But the signals were there at the time,  however I concede it was a bad call on my behalf.  

Gooner
21 December 2014 15:49:32


But the signals were there at the time,  however I concede it was a bad call on my behalf.  


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


I would just say a VERY EARLY call

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


seringador
21 December 2014 16:19:38
Some signals suggest something rather similar to the 2001 January, good LP's to SE California, Floods in Mozambique, Blizzards in N Japan and a stedy pressure raise N Atlantic.
The next few runs should be decisive.
Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
Matty H
21 December 2014 16:23:28

Some signals suggest something rather similar to the 2001 January, good LP's to SE California, Floods in Mozambique, Blizzards in N Japan and a stedy pressure raise N Atlantic.
The next few runs should be decisive.

Originally Posted by: seringador 


Maybe, but there's zero chance the next few runs will decide next month. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Phil G
21 December 2014 16:24:58
Lots of uncertainty with the modelling of the storm looking quite different to the 6z.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif 

nsrobins
21 December 2014 16:30:55

Another shift in the jet profile results in a different outcome again beyond the big storm. If anything another shortwave is set to dive SE across the UK early the following week. Never boring is it?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
21 December 2014 16:38:02


Another shift in the jet profile results in a different outcome again beyond the big storm. If anything another shortwave is set to dive SE across the UK early the following week. Never boring is it?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


This particular run shows a transient southern English northern flank of channel snow event as that moves through.  Im sure it will be gone on the next output but indicative of the kinds of things that can happen in these cold unstable airflows at a time of such low insolation.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Phil G
21 December 2014 16:40:56


Another shift in the jet profile results in a different outcome again beyond the big storm. If anything another shortwave is set to dive SE across the UK early the following week. Never boring is it?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Seems beyond T120 is FI at the moment.

David M Porter
21 December 2014 16:45:36


 


Seems beyond T120 is FI at the moment.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I agree, Phil. I think that FI starts very early just now. Seems that nothing beyond next weekend can be predicted with any amount of certainty right now.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
jondg14
21 December 2014 16:52:15


 


I agree, Phil. I think that FI starts very earlu just now. Seems that nothing beyond next weekend can be predicted with any amount of certainty right now.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


It's difficult for those searching for cold but there is little to gain from looking beyond 27th for any detail at the moment. The interesting thing right now is what the track and intensity of this storm is going to be.

Notty
21 December 2014 16:53:06


 


I agree, Phil. I think that FI starts very earlu just now. Seems that nothing beyond next weekend can be predicted with any amount of certainty right now.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


i don't think that it is clear cut as early as next Thursday :)

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Jive Buddy
21 December 2014 16:57:22


 


This particular run shows a transient southern English northern flank of channel snow event as that moves through.  Im sure it will be gone on the next output but indicative of the kinds of things that can happen in these cold unstable airflows at a time of such low insolation.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Have you been on the sherry early WI?  Even Babelfish is struggling with that one 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
David M Porter
21 December 2014 17:01:26


 


It's difficult for those searching for cold but there is little to gain from looking beyond 27th for any detail at the moment. The interesting thing right now is what the track and intensity of this storm is going to be.


Originally Posted by: jondg14 


Indeed, and it would appear that this storm is going to have a big say in what happens afterwards. We'll have a better idea by the time we reach next weekend methinks.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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