I've just cracked open a beer and that looks like a potential snow event to me Jive with sub 0c 850Hpa's advecting off established continental cold. 

It will be likely to have disappeared next run but its mighty interesting seeing these other options being suggested in the period 29-31st December. 

Ah, that's what he meant! LOL! ( I knew really, but just laughed at the wording )

Continuing with my winter based charts, here is one that I think is good enough to show. I think its possibly the first one that might have real use here too. This is basically the graphical representation of the snow row, except it uses my own snow risk function which you have seen before. Here are charts for Xmas day, the 26th and the 27th which are quite troublesome at the moment. This ofc uses the 6Z GEFS. Unlike the snow risk maps I hitherto showed, this gives actual probabilities of snow based on the data we have, rather than the probability of snow assuming the chart is identical on the day.

Xmas day (surprisingly boring, I expected some more colour in NW Scotland) 

Boxing day, I think this represents the possibility of the LP coming into cold air and producing snow on its leading edge.

And the 27th which seems to favour the snow showers in the east. Bear in mind all this is just a 6 hour period. And I don't want to spam the page with charts, however there is colour for most places at some point.

Hope you liked :)

I will put it in Fanet -speak next time.  "Might get a bit ov sno ofof fhat one mate!"

Edit: Port this evening, Sherry tomorrow

LOL Classic Doc.

but after no snow you didn't mention Melton Mowbray .....

:-)

I feel honoured to be called David M Rumsfeld!

GEM deep FI is intruiging with a 1060mb high over the pole with southerly extending lobes, helping to push the jet south, keeping us cool to cold:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122112/ECH1-144.GIF?21-0

ECM at 144

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122112/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

GFS at 144

One has to speed up a bit or the other one slow down

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122112/ECH1-168.GIF?21-0

Quite a difference even at this short range

Where is your money

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122112/ECH1-192.GIF?21-0

A real struggle to work out what to do with the LP

The well respected JMA is looking cold post Christmas in FI: this at day 8

Edit, given the levels of divergence this evening, its fair to say that FI stands at around 120hours and there are a range of options on the table.  The models are struggling, more runs needed, etcetera.  More port needed

http://wwww.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Recm962.gif

Christmas day at least looks seasonal but without the snow.

Pretty mediocre picture rolling out this evening IMO with the GEFS and ECM. 

Brian, its an evening to think about the GEM and JMA.  Get with the programme!

More evidence of models struggling : Don't think Ive ever seen such a clueless and divergent AO forecast suite

a blend of the two would be my best bet Marcus, cool wet and windy.

SE moving LP,s are difficult tp predict.I think quite often they finish up further east than models predict.This means winds from NW rather  than N /NE. winds lighter than initially modeled.air less cold than predicted and therefore rain rather than snow.Even last years end November storm was  a little futher east than some of models  predicted if I remember right.

After the 12z runs I have reached the conclusion that the way the pattern evolves in the 4-8 day period is too uncertain for any op run or even ensemble suite to handle.

For one thing, you've got not one but two potential 'weather bombs', one over the U.S. and the other the UK, which despite now being in the 4-6 day range continues to bring a wide range of solutions when you look across all of the models. Slight changes in their behaviour can have major impacts on how the pattern evolves down the line (in which sense the U.S. storm is more important).

Then you've got the potential for a shortwave features to interact with these storms and greatly influence their movement, and these things are all over the place from run to run and between models.

From all this comes a run here and there which takes a dump in the face of all the other models, for example the 12z ECM (left) which completely lacks the strong ridge through Alaska shown by all other output (GFSP on the right as an example):

Way to call something else into question ECM... 

Even in the shorter range, we see a major disagreement between the majority vote (ECM as an example on the left) and the JMA, the latter (right) going for a much weaker storm system or should I say pair of systems as the energy splits before it's really got going:

Lately we've seen several cases where the outcome with the most support turns out to be the wrong way ahead so who knows what we'll be seeing on tomorrow's runs?

For the time being I have officially given up on trying to figure out where we're most likely to be heading. Even the strat. developments are uncertain, as it's developments in the troposphere that need to align correctly to deliver the 'killer blow' and take down the vortex.

You know your in trouble when the JMA ( the patron saint of lost causes ) is rolled out, regardless of the MetO rating it I've never known it to lead from the front against the ECM and GFS. 

You'll soon be listening to Mr Gaze rather than Dr Cohen. 

Great we are talking about April; things must be bad.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122112/EDH1-240.GIF?21-0

Wake me up when its over