You're speaking as if it's a done and dusted deal.

As long as ECM and GEFS show a sizeable cold cluster, as they both have done for a few days now, there's a decent chance of a colder spell - regardless of what the MetO may say!

Note that none of the models are showing wintry nirvana, but highs in the low single figures would at least feel seasonal.

Last year was the UK's warmest since records began in 1910, the Met Office has said.

It was also the warmest year in the Central England Temperature series, which dates back to 1659, and is the longest running record of its type.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30683339

http://judithcurry.com/2014/12/09/spinning-the-warmest-year/

I feel like it might be like when you watch the BBC weather and snow moves in from france, turns to nothing over the English channel and then goes madly white when it hits the south coast. In the same way the cold spell turns to nothing as it hits the low res, and then goes mad when it hits the high res!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/550558/Britain-Weather-100mph-Winds-Flooding-Flood-Warnings-Mild-Temperatures

Read that unbelievably stupid headline... 250mph gales!

Edit: Well, credit them at least with correcting the headline to 100mph gales after many commenters pointed out the error. Could still quibble that 100mph is NOT gale force, or indeed that 100mph is an expected highest gust, not mean wind. At least it's now less wrong! 

Yep MetO singing the same tune they've been singing for some time, and good on them. Unlike some they do not get hoodwinked by the odd series of decent looking OP runs, and even when there is cross-model agreement within 150hrs (which we've rarely had at any time this winter) they still wait for it to verify for a few days.
Put it this way, going from sublime to ridiculous, at one end of the spectrum you have MetO and at the other end The Express. At various positions between that are all the rest of us (and I include myself of course) who speculate and hopecast, etc.

At least we're not the only one getting battered by deep vigorous low pressure systems, even our cousins "down under" seems to be getting it in the neck as well (mind you, isn't it their cyclone season now?): https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/553192246351527936/photo/1

I've always found it amazing that forecast weather during winter months can cause so many frayed tempers in the MOD. That said it's unusual to see high levels of testosterone in this thread. Sometimes members make a post with a clear indication of what they intend to say but don't get the message over and equally sometimes members read a perfectly transparent post and interpret it in a different way.

It doesn't matter who's to blame but IMHO it's unhealthy.........  

Well I did apologise for being grumpy before my statement

I stand by what I said, and as you know I tend to defend the MetO when others are rather disparaging. I will however criticise them when appropriate. but their longer range forecasts have in my opinion been excellent for weeks now, and when many saw cold and snow in the depths of the NWP they weren't swayed and have proved correct.
As I type the GFS algorithms throw more eye-candy into the far reaches of their runs. Will it be proved correct? I doubt it. Will some grab hold of it and turn it into a portent of frost and snow - probably.

At least we haven't had an absolute deluge of a winter like last year. After last nights storm it looks like things could get quite hair-raising later next week though!

Tuesday night into Wednesday - a band of more prolonged Sleet/snow moves across southern England and a weak channel low moves up from the English channel to bring some rain and snow to the South ahead of the main rain band, possibly a covering of wet snow over the Moors? - captured here:

Sleet and snow showers move into the SW and cross central and southern areas:

Sleet and snow becoming more persistent!!? 

Shows up nicely on, for example, the Reading automated forecast - haevy snow in the early hours of Wednesday.

Definitely one to keep an eye on, given that GFS was toying with the idea yesterday as well.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpk9yegm#?fcTime=1421193600

(EDIT: tweaked to show light snow now.)

Of course its bloody typical that I am away in Essex that night

It is an ill wind which blows nobody any good as they say:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11337617/Jet-stream-blasts-BA-plane-across-Atlantic-in-record-time.html

"Concorde may have been retired but a British Airways passenger jet approached supersonic speed this week as it rode a surging jet stream from New York to London.

The Boeing 777-200 jet reached a ground speed of 745mph as it rode winds of more than 200mph across the Atlantic. At ground level, the speed of sound is 761mph.

The happy result was a flight time of just five hours and 16 minutes for BA114, which arrived an hour and half before schedule, according to the tracking website, FlightAware.

..."

Winter really getting on now...

MM I saw this, nothing new really but interesting all the same.  I wonder how much pressure this would or could put on the structure of an aircraft. (Going so fast I mean). Perhaps the pilots slow them down? I wonder if any current passenger aircraft could actually break the sound barrier with the jet stream behind it?!

I love the way a bit of dodgy reporting has popped up in all the papers. It was actually not that special - the ground speed record for a 777-200 is at least 735 knots, well above the speed of sound (and a lot faster than the 647 knots of the plane in the Telegraph report). Yet even at 735 knots the plane itself hadn't gone supersonic in that case - the reason is best summed up in an answer which can be easily Googled. If the media had done this they'd doubtless have realised it's really not that newsworthy - but hey, that wouldn't generate clicks!

"This is analogous to you walking at 2 mph along a walkalater (travelator) that is moving at 2 mph. Your actual movement towards your plane at the gate is pretty fast at 4 mph (2 + 2) but as far as you are concerned, you are still walking at 2 mph!

So even if you were seeing a ground speed of 760 mph on the GPS, the Boeing 777 has never exceeded it structural limits of the plane or its wings it was designed for!"

Side note: if a subsonic plane such as the 777 or 747 actually manages to go supersonic, all sorts of bad things happen.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/828072

Someone posted:

"During the seventies UA had a 747 going from HNL to LAX that caught a tailwind that pushed it beyond Mach 1. I've heard this story from a number of long time UA employees including my father who was working for UA at the time so I take it as pretty reliable. I don't know the aircraft or flight number however."

And the reply was:

"THAT DOESN'T COUNT!!!

If the winds are right ANY plane can go above Mach 1 GROUND SPEED with no damage or even exceeding maxium air speed. The Mandarin 747SP did break the sound barrier due to pilot error, the wing spar was bent and the wings now point at a 7 degree up angle. The plane was for sale and sitting at LAS up until a few months ago, whether it was bought or scrapped I don't know."

What you write may be true, but i think it ignores the significance of the report - by skill, luck or judgement the pilot of this flight managed to set a record for a sub-sonic crossing from New York to London by a passenger jet - this is because the plane was able to stay in the zone with maximum tailwind for most of the flight and thus gained maximum advantage.